"Who did not screw the screw?"

We are considering versions of the death of President Iran together with Orientalist Marianna Belenka

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the country's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahiyan, Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Al-Hash, head of the province of East Azerbaijan Malek Rachmati, a helicopter crew and one security officer died when a helicopter crash in the northwest of Iran.

The first messages about the accident appeared on the afternoon of May 19. Then, for a long time, rescuers tried to get to the scene - they were interfered with fog and rain. The collapse occurred in the area of ​​the village of Uzi, one of the most inaccessible in Iran. The country announced a five -day mourning, the bodies of the dead will be buried on May 21 in the city of Tabriz. The sudden death of President Raisi gave rise to various theories - conspiracy and not only. The New Gazeta Europe talked about them with Arabist Marianna Belenka.

Israeli hand or Mossada agent Eli Copter

Although officially Iran did not accuse Israel of what happened, there were hints of Mossad's involvement in the accident. After the strike on April 1 at the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, as a result of which the generals of the Corps of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution died, Iran first attacked Israel from its territory.

One of the Israeli officials anonymously stated in a conversation with Reuters that Israel has nothing to do with the crash of a helicopter with Raisi on board.

Marianna Belenkaya stipulates that you can’t be 100%confident in anything, when it comes to the Middle East, but notes that Israel did not have any motivation to attack Raisi, because the president did not oversee the activities of Iranian proxies in the region that attack Israeli territory. They are primarily under the control of the Corps of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution (Ksir) and other structures related to safety.

- The president is not a central figure in Iran. He is important, he has certain functions, but his death is not a collapse of the Ayatoll regime,

- explains the expert. - Iran’s course remains the same. Israel knows this very well and, accordingly, for him there was no apparent reason to eliminate the political leadership of Iran, on which neither military operations nor decisions on the development of a nuclear program do not depend. That is, the president is such a barometer of the course that defines Ayatollah, and the performer, nothing more. Therefore, Israel is not very profitable.

Belenka draws attention to the fact that the conspiracy theory about the involvement of Israel could grow from jokes and gloating among the Israelis in social networks. - In Israel, let's say, they did not hold back the joy of what was happening, since Raisi voiced the threats of Israel, and was one of those who threatened to erase it into dust. These are all demagogy and loud words, but nevertheless. Therefore, in Israel it was perceived as retaliation. And yesterday there were a lot of jokes in social networks that the pilot was an agent of Mossad. Some media took these jokes for reality and later apologized, ”she says.

According to the Arabists, all past attacks in which Israel suspected were made on the Iranian military. “Political leadership is a little different. Not like Israel's handwriting, ”Bellenka adds.

Sanctions and deficiency of spare parts

Raisi flew to the Bell-212-made Bell-212, this is a double-engine multi-purpose helicopter.

Former Foreign Minister Iran Jafar Zarif began to blame American sanctions in the helicopter crash, because of which new aircraft and spare parts for it had long ceased to enter Iran. Experts often say that aircraft in Iran is worn out, aircraft and helicopters are life -threatening. But the question remains open why such significant people from the country's leadership flew by helicopter, which was not thoroughly verified.

“I read that when they took off, the weather was normal, clear, and that it changed suddenly,” says Belenka. - Surely in Iran there will be an investigation, how it happened that the presidential helicopter was not prepared with all the understanding that this could happen at any time.

It is clear that the version of the sabotage also begs here, given the internal discontent in Iran: who did not screw the screw? But none of these theories have any reason.

There is a fact that the technique in Iran was worn out and there were very difficult meteorological conditions. Sometimes everything is very commonplace.

Stressed relations with Azerbaijan

The Iranian delegation was returning from the opening ceremony of a hydroelectric complex on the Araz River. The event was the president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. The Arabist recalls that Iran and Azerbaijan have a difficult relationship, because Israel supplies military equipment to Azerbaijan. Iran, respectively, has better relations with Armenia. In addition, there were diplomatic scandals between Iran and Azerbaijan. At the end of January last year, the Azerbaijan Embassy was attacked in Tehran, the head of the Safety Service of the diplomatic mission was killed.

After the report of the death of Raisi, the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev brought condolences. The prime minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan did the same.

Political murder version

The third conspiracy theory concerns internal political games in Iran. In 1985, Raisi received the post of prosecutor in Tehran. In 2014, he became Prosecutor General of Iran, and in 2019 Ayatollah Khamenei appointed him to the post of head of the country's judicial power.

“They will find another butcher (as the Iranians called Raisi, who in the eighties sent thousands of Iran citizens, being a prosecutor). But the joy of many Iranians and not only Iranians, is quite understandable, ” commented the news of the death of Raisisi orientalist and the author of the telegram channel“ Eastern Syndrome ”Ksenia Svetlova.

The 63-year-old Raisi for a long time was considered a potential successor to the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the media noticed .

- Raisi was called not the most likely, but one of the most likely successors,

- Corrects Belenka. - It was three years ago, when there were elections of President Iran (June 18, 2021). And just then it was about the fact that Khamenei was no longer a young man, and the last time, the only time when they elected a new supreme leader, Hamenie was the president. The logical chain arose from here that this time the president can either become the next supreme leader, or he can affect the situation when choosing a new supreme leader. But recently, it has not been so often said that specifically Raisi will be a successor. Of course, everything can be, but it feels like Raisi was convenient for everyone. He was not such a very expressive president recently, at least, it seemed like that.

Arabist believes that even if you consider this version, the authorities could choose simpler ways to “remove” Raisi. The first term of the president ended in a year, so theoretically it could simply be prevented for a second term.

The first vice president of Iran Mohammad Mokhber will act as the president. Extraordinary elections that special advice organize should take place within 50 days. In addition to Raisi, the country's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahiyan died in a plane crash. His duties will be fulfilled by Ali Bakeri Kanya.

- There is a very interesting figure, much more interesting than the dead Foreign Minister. He is from a very close circle of Khamenei. His brother is the son -in -law of Hameni, married to his daughter. But the Foreign Ministry in Iran is again not in the first roles of negotiations.

Will something in the region change now?

- Not yet. But, you know, changes in the region usually happen when you do not expect, ”says Belenka. -Nobody waited on October 7 (the day of the Hamas attack on Israel-approx. Correa), no one waited for Arab spring that it will flare up due to the death of a simple vegetable merchant (December 17, 2010, the Tunisian street vegetable merchant Muhammad Buazizi committed an act of self-immolation as a sign of the arbitrariness of the local law enforcement-approximately), and at the result of the result) Several modes collapsed. Therefore, I am very careful in statements, I never exclude anything.