The Economist reveals "Russia's plan to partially encircle Kharkov"

The British magazine The Economist has obtained a plan for Russia's offensive in the Kharkiv region. It shows that Russian troops were planning to partially encircle Kharkiv and put pressure on Ukrainian troops in the area of ​​the Pechenezh Reservoir (located to the east of the city).

Details: The operation was supposedly scheduled for May 15-16, but for unknown reasons was postponed for almost a week.

• According to the plans, the Russians identified two attack directions on both sides of the reservoir.

• The 72-hour offensive in the western direction was aimed at bringing Russian troops within artillery range of the city of Kharkov at the village of Borshchevaya. The magazine claims that Russian forces in this area were stopped by the quickly deployed elite 92nd Brigade, which pushed Russian troops back a full 10 km from their original target. If the publication’s data is correct, it changes the idea of ​​what happened on the border of the Belgorod and Kharkov regions after May 10. Until now, the talk has been about Ukraine’s poor defenses on the border and how the 125th Brigade, which was supposed to repel an attack in this direction, effectively fled from its positions, writes The Economist.

• In the eastern, Vovchansk direction, Russia's plan was to reach the town of Pechenegy. In the first days, Russian troops moved quickly, passing through territory that was supposed to be mined and heavily fortified, but in the end there was neither. The magazine quotes Ukrainian special forces officer Denis Yaroslavsky. According to him, Russian troops crossed the border at about 11 p.m. on May 9. Yaroslavsky expected them to start exploding on mines, but that did not happen.

• The Economist reports that the Russian army is continuing to prepare for an offensive. One of the columns is being formed in Sudzha. The Ukrainian army is also preparing for a new attack to the east of Vovchansk (here the Russian army may move towards the village of Bely Kolodez). Fighting has also resumed near Kupyansk, a railway junction, and on May 17 Ukraine effectively lost control of the nearby village of Berestovoye.

Context : Russia opened a front in the Kharkiv region on May 10. Since then, according to data from the Ukrainian project DeepStare, Russian troops have occupied 174 square kilometers of territory in the region.

• Military analysts believe that Russia does not have enough forces in this direction to attack. In particular, The Economist estimates the group formed here at 48,000 troops.
• Vladimir Putin said on May 17 that Russia was creating a buffer zone between Ukraine and the border city of Belgorod. But that may reflect the evolving realities of the battlefield rather than intentions, The Economist suggests.