Holding out for reinforcements

Ukraine has shored up defenses near Kharkiv, but Russia is launching attacks along the entire front line

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of June 3, 2024

Russia is continuing its offensive in Ukraine across the entire front line — from the northeastern city of Kharkiv to the village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region. However, the pace has slowed in recent weeks, partly because the Ukrainian command has deployed all its operational reserves for defense. This has helped establish a strong new Kharkiv front and stabilize the situation to the west of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. However, in other areas, such as around the town of Chasiv Yar near Bakhmut and between the cities of Kupyansk and Svatove in Ukraine’s northeast, there aren’t enough forces for a stable defense.

The Ukrainian command will likely have to keep transferring “rescue teams” from several elite brigades from one front to another while it waits for new brigades to be formed from newly mobilized soldiers (a months-long process). For instance, three Ukrainian Marine Corps brigades, which had been fighting on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River for the past several months, have likely been sent to Kharkiv. This significant troop redeployment even alarmed Russian “military correspondents,” who saw it as preparation for a Ukrainian counteroffensive aimed at pushing Russian troops all the way back to the border in the Kharkiv region.

Kharkiv

The two-pronged Russian offensive — targeting the northern outskirts of Kharkiv and the city of Vovchansk, about 30 miles further northeast — has ground to a halt. The Russian army hasn’t managed to capture even the northern half of Vovchansk or cross the Vovcha River, which roughly bisects the city. Russian troops also haven’t made significant advances near Lyptsi, a satellite town north of Kharkiv.

Recently, the Russian command has begun deploying reserves to the battlefront. Initially, the offensive, which started in early May, was conducted almost entirely by infantry units supported by artillery. Now, Russian armored units have appeared near Vovchansk.

However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) haven’t yet launched the counteroffensive Russian “war correspondents” predicted. So far, Ukrainian reserves are only conducting localized counterattacks, as well as artillery strikes and drone attacks on the rear of the Russian forces, including strikes on troops on the Russian side of the border. The United States recently authorized Ukraine to use the U.S.-made HIMARS missile system for such strikes on Russian territory across the boarder from Kharkiv, so these attacks may soon become even more effective.

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Several individual Ukrainian Marine Corps units have been redeployed to the Kharkiv front from the Krynky bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and islands in the river delta, where they had been fighting for the past few months. Naval infantry units, equipped with gear unique to the Marine Corps, have also been spotted near Vovchansk. It’s unclear whether this indicates the transfer of the entire corps to the Kharkiv front, just a part of it, or if it’s deliberate disinformation. Previously, the Ukrainian command was gathering reserves for the new front by drawing individual units and battalions rather than moving an entire brigade.

In any case, there’s currently no talk of a Ukrainian counteroffensive aimed at pushing Russian troops back over the border. The Russian grouping in this sector has yet to deploy most of its available troops; so far, only two army corps and units from the Leningrad Military District’s 6th Combined Arms Army are involved in the offensive (possibly along with some units from the Moscow Military District). And Ukraine needs reserves to prepare for the second phase of the enemy’s offensive.

The fact that Ukraine has transferred reserves away from the Dnipro River could also prove advantageous for the Russian command. The Russian army has significant forces on the eastern bank, including elite units. If the AFU stops amphibious operations in the Kherson region, these forces could be redeployed in other sectors.

Other sectors

The Donetsk region

Russian troops continue their attempts to push the AFU back across the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal near Chasiv Yar. At the end of the winter, Ukraine transferred its powerful 3rd Assault Brigade away from this area to save the Avdiivka garrison, and the remaining Ukrainian forces are clearly insufficient to stop the Russian advance. Russia is continuing attacks on two Chasiv Yar microdistricts on the eastern bank of the canal: Kanal and Kalynivka. Russian troops have also been spotted on the western bank of the canal, where the center of this strategically important city lies.

Russian forces are also trying to push the AFU back across the canal to the south of Chasiv Yar. Russian troops captured the ruins of Klishchiivka in May after months of fierce fighting, and they’re are now continuing attacks to the north and south of the village. In the coming weeks, the Ukrainian army will likely need to retreat across the canal to prevent the Russian army from establishing stable bridgeheads on its western bank. If the Russian advance to the north and south of Chasiv Yar isn’t stopped, the city could be lost.

Russia is also continuing localized attacks to the west of Avdiivka. However, Ukrainian reinforcements, particularly the 110th Mechanized Brigade which was sent to recuperate after defending the city of Avdiivka, have helped stabilize the situation.

After several weeks of fighting, Russian troops have occupied the center of Krasnohorivka, north of Marinka. The Russian army is also continuing its offensive toward Vuhledar from the occupied village of Novomykhailivka. The Russian command will likely attempt to combine these two offensives into a single strike toward the city of Kurakhove, an important AFU logistics hub. However, such an ambitious operation will only be possible if additional reserves are transferred to the area.

The Zaporizhzhia–Donetsk border

Russian forces are also continuing their offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region and at its border with the Donetsk region. In the latter sector (in the Mokri Yaly River Valley, south of Velyka Novosilka), Russian troops are attacking Staromaiorske successfully, and attacking Urozhaine with heavy losses and without significant progress.

East of Kharkiv

In northern Ukraine, near Kupyansk and Svatove, Russian forces continue to advance along a broad front. It’s likely that the Ukrainian command will soon have to send a “rescue team” to this sector to stop the Russian offensive. While the 3rd Assault Brigade has already been sent there, the Ukrainian command has fewer and fewer “rescue teams” at its disposal.

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