Trump's chances

How the trial will affect the rating of the ex-president of the United States and its election campaign

Five months before the US presidential election, the jury found Donald Trump guilty of the falsification of business documentation. From a legal point of view, this will not prevent him from running for him, even if he receives a real term. On the other hand, the final verdict, which the judges will be issued on July 11, may affect public opinion about the former president.

The New Gazeta Europe, together with the invited professor of the University of Wisconsin at Madison Mikhail Troitsky, sorted out the mood of the Americans.

Sentence

On May 30, the jury in the court of New York unanimously found the ex-president of the United States Donald Trump guilty of falsification of business documentation in order to conceal the amount paid to former porn actress Stormy Daniels. For 130 thousand dollars, she was supposed to keep a sexual connection with the politician secret.

The judge will issue the final verdict on July 11. Regardless of Trump, they will be sentenced to a fine, public work, a conditional or real term, this will not prevent him from running for the presidential election.

At the same time, cases of interference in the elections, concealment of secret documents from the times of his presidency and the assault on the Capitol are investigated against the politician. Verdicts have not yet been adopted for them.

"It is impossible to save democracy, first destroying it"

After the jury announced the jury, Trump said that Biden and his administration were excited “in order to injure or harm the political opponent”.

“The real verdict will be issued by the people on November 5,” the politician said, referring to the presidential election date.

The crimes in the commission of which the jury found Donald Trump guilty, allows him to say that his persecution was political in nature, the invited professor of the University of Wisconsin in Madison Mikhail Troitsky noted in a conversation with Novo-Europe. According to him, although the ex-president was engaged in the fake of financial documents, which is perceived in society as a serious offense, the initial reason has the attitude to the personal life of a presidential candidate about 20 years ago.

“The fact of Trump’s connection with a porn actress became known during his presidency, and this fact itself did not lead to a serious reduction in Trump's support among his supporters and did not discredit him as a politician”,

- the expert emphasized.

In his opinion, in the context of the Trump presidential campaign, it is beneficial to delay the timing of the trial of three other criminal charges against him. If Trump receives a conditional term in the case of falsification of financial documents, and the trial in two other cases will not begin or will not be completed before the presidential election, then if Trump was elected by the president, he will be able to influence the position of state prosecutors or even order them to remove the accusations against him. At the same time, Troitsky believes that the accusation of pressure against officials, put forward against the politician by the state of Georgia, "is unlikely to have a prospect of the president chosen by all the people."

The Nyt publication suggested that the ex-president, who has long claimed that the case against him is politically motivated, will now try to use the verdict in his interests during the election campaign, presenting himself as a victim of the Democrats conspiracy.

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. regarded the jury as part of the Democrats strategy to “defeat the President Trump in the courtroom, and not in the electoral urn”:

- In November, this will lead to the opposite result. Worse, it is fundamentally unfinished. America deserves the president who can win in the electoral urn, without jeopardizing the separation of powers in our government and without turning the courts into weapons. It is impossible to save democracy, first destroying it.

The speaker of the House of US representatives Mike Johnson called on May 30 a shameful day in American history. In his opinion, "Democrats rejoice at the conviction of the leader of the opposition party on ridiculous accusations based on the testimony of the person who is deprived of the status of a lawyer and convicted criminal." The leader of the republican majority in the House of Representatives Steve Scaliz called the verdict corrupt, party and vicious. In general, a day after the announcement of the verdict, the Trump campaign received almost $ 53 million online donors from donors.

Troitsky notes that the situation similar to what is happening in the United States has no precedents, so no scenarios cannot be ruled out: “For example, if the Biden administration makes serious political mistakes or encounters a crisis that will be guilty.”

“I recall, for example, the first president of Russia Boris Yeltsin, who won the round of power struggle in his life, based on the fact that folk support goes to the policy that is perceived as an unfairly persecuted,” the expert said.

Cons

Even before the jury verdict, Reuters conducted polls on how Americans would react to different court decisions. Polls showed that some Republicans and independent voters are ready to refuse to support Trump if he is found guilty of a criminal offense. At the same time, the voters were divided by the opinion of whether the case was politically motivated: 52 % believe that the charge was mainly aimed at maintaining the rule of law, and 46 % - that it was aimed at preventing Trump to return to the White House.

“I think Biden’s election headquarters will want to constantly remind voters that Trump is a convicted criminal and was found guilty of violation of the law. The goal is to turn this into a characteristic attack on Trump, strengthen his negative and raise doubts about Trump to push the voters from him and go to Biden, ” suggested the sociologist of the two presidential campaigns of Democrat Bernie Ben Ben Tulchin.

Troitsky believes that the level of trust of law enforcement and, in particular, the judicial system among Americans is high. In particular, they expect that if necessary, their rights will be protected by this system, for example, if they themselves become victims of some kind of falsification. Therefore, as the expert says, "just to dismiss the jury in the first criminal case of Trump and his supporters will not succeed."

The most unpleasant scenario for the politician, according to Troitsky, may be a trial of other charges to the presidential election and in conditions when Trump was already convicted of the first criminal case.

“In this case, the risk of obtaining a real prison term for Trump will be much higher, since his criminal past will practically depreciate his testimony in court, and the judge will be obliged to react to the recidivist more strictly than to the person who first underwent judicial persecution”,

- the expert is sure.

At the same time, Trump's refusal to participate in the elections seems unlikely to him. His nomination of the presidential candidate received unconditional support of the republican asset. A few days after the final verdict of the court, her congress will be held, but they can hardly make such a decision on it.

The second in terms of the number of votes of the Republicans filed for the nomination by the presidential candidate from the Republican Party was the former Governor of South Carolina and the US representative to the UN Nikki Haley. According to Troitsky, only she only has sufficient legitimacy as an alternative Trump candidate of Republicans.

“However, the gap in the number of votes between her and Trump was great, and she herself ultimately supported the nomination of Trump and was even ready to consider the opportunity to become a candidate in vice presidents at the invitation of Trump. So if an antitrim uprising will not occur in the Republican Party in the next one and a half months, the congress will probably approve Trump as a candidate, ”the professor is sure.

In general, in his opinion, the deterioration of Trump’s legal prospects in subsequent months before the election may raise the question of the Derritant’s leadership about the disqualification and replacement of Trump, which will require not just backstage agreements and decisions, but “a real wide transformation of the Republican Party in the direction of rejection of heritage”.

The nearest debate Trump and Biden are scheduled for June 27. They will take place in Atlanta without an audience in the studio. The next round is scheduled for September 10.

“In general, Trump and Biden so far have almost equal chances, since Trump’s small advantage is likely to“ evaporate ”because of the indictment of the jury in the first case against Trump in New York,” Troitsky sums up.