Sky. Airplane. Ukraine

Soon the Armed Forces will receive the long-awaited F-16 fighters. How will they change the course of the war?

Literally from day to day, allies can transfer the first fighters to Ukraine. The fundamental decision on this subject has long been made, but the F-16 has not yet entered the warring country. “New Evrope” with the help of experts understands when the treasured planes can be transferred and what they will change during the conflict.

Echo of the Cold War

According to the Military Balance reference book, at the beginning of 2022, there were 45 thousand personnel in the air forces of Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine were about 124 combat and combat aircraft and about 63 transport, special and training aircraft. Five of them were, according to the reference book, the Su-24 bombers, 31 units-Su-25 attack aircraft, 25 units-heavy Su-27 fighters, 24 units-light front-line fighters MiG-29.

The World Air Forces reference book indicates that at the beginning of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the countries of the countries of the country had 43 MiG-29, 26 fighters Su-27, 12 Su-24 bombers and 17 Su-25 attack aircraft.

“The exact number of aircraft today in the arsenal of the Air Force Air Force is unknown,” the Russian military expert explains to the “Novy-Europe”, who agreed to communicate on anonymity. - Different sources indicate different numbers. It is known that some Soviet MiG-29 aircraft underwent modernization. And after the start of the supply of Western weapons with the Su-24, they learned how to launch winged English and French missiles Storm Shadow/Scalp, and the Su-27 and MiG-29 are armed with anti-radar missiles AGM-88 HARM. However, with such launches, it is impossible to use all the constructive capabilities of such missiles. At the same time, the F-16 also cannot use Storm Shadow/Scalp. So the arrival of these fighters will not solve all problems. ”

“From the very beginning of a full-scale invasion, many were surprising that the Russians could not quickly deal with Ukrainian aircraft,” says the Israeli military observer David Sharp. - The aircraft of the Air Force of Ukraine act very effectively. Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles, for the launch of which the Soviet Su-24 bombers were able to adapt, aptly amaze targets in the occupied territories and became a serious problem for the Russians. Ukrainian fighters drop American and French planning controlled air bombs to the enemy’s positions. ” At the same time, David Sharp emphasizes that the weapons transmitted by NATO countries will be used much more efficiently Western aircraft.

“Su-24 bombers only reset Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles, but cannot manage them in flight,” explains the military expert, instructor pilot, and Armed Forces Colonel Roman Svitan.

- All coordinates are clogged into the guidance head on the ground. If the equipment for launching these missiles can be installed on the F-16, the hit will become even more accurate. ”

Since the full invasion, Ukrainian aviation suffered significant losses. It was shot down or destroyed (both the enemy, and as a result of disasters) at least eight MiG-29 fighters, the same number of Su-25 attack aircraft, three or more Su-24 bombers and several other military and military transport aircraft.

The airfield in Starokonstantinov, where, according to various sources, the Ukrainian Su-24 is based, was subjected to Russian missile attacks many times. However, it is not possible to completely disable him.

“During the war, Ukraine suffered losses in airplanes,” says Roman Svitan. - However, the partners put us about the same number of Soviet -made fighters and attack aircraft. So the Aircraft Park of Ukraine today approximately corresponds to the indicators on February 24, 2022. The MiG-29 received from Poland went through the modernization and got the opportunity to carry some types of Western weapons. For example, we are talking about the American guided high-precision bomb GBU-39. ”

Ukrainians received four Su-25 attack aircraft from North Macedonia. It is believed that they were in an unsuitable condition for flights. Also, MiG-29 fighters were transferred by Poland and Slovakia. The exact number of working winged vehicles obtained by Kyiv is unknown.

Political will

In total, a union of four countries: Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway-maybe, according to the anonymous expert of Novo-Europe from Russia, provide Ukraine with more than 70 aircraft. Once, it was these countries that the F-16 fighters were the first to receive from NATO. Now they plan to convey the aircraft of the aircraft that have undergone deep modernization. However, dozens of fighters will not be able to be in Ukraine in the near future. The issue should be resolved in the field of training pilots and ground personnel. Indeed, for each aircraft you will need at least two pilots.

David Sharp recalls that the number of aircraft transmitted directly depends on the number of trained pilots. If Kyiv receives more fighters than today there are trained pilots and ground personnel for them, the F-16 will not become help, but a burden.

Roman Svitan claims that the supply of aircraft has already been waiting in Ukraine. According to him, the flight-technical composition is ready and all the necessary measures to prepare airfields have been taken. The expert believes that the issue can be solved by the political will of the US Presidential Administration, which gives permission to transfer the F-16. Perhaps the American authorities expect a NATO summit in Washington from July 9 to 11 of the current year.

“Ukraine hopes by the end of the year to get a brigade of at least three squadrons,” says Roman Svitan.

- It is likely that we are talking about 40-50 aircraft. First of all, the allies should provide at least one full squadron in a dozen aircraft.

In addition, it is especially important which weapons and in what quantities will be provided with fighters. F-16 can carry about 120 different types of weapons. So, if the partners share the Jassm-Er controlled missile flying 950 kilometers, then Russian strategic aviation airfields, for example, the base in Engels, fall under the blow. But they do not promise such ammunition yet. ”

“Different countries convey various F-16 modifications,” the Russian military expert continues the story. -So, Norwegian aircraft have a parachute to stop the runway. It is likely that as a result of the obtained by the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces, fighters will be able to use different types of weapons. But there are no specifics at the moment. After all, it is still unknown with what ammunition the planes are transmitted and what radars will be installed on them. It is likely that the most obsolete fighters will not be able to use new types of missiles and fight Russian aircraft at significant distances. Modern Russian aircraft of the Su Radar family are more powerful, which gives them a certain advantage during the war in the air. ”

Roman Svitan is convinced that one Air Force air brigade is enough to completely capture the initiative in the sky over the Crimea. If the Ukrainian leadership decides to use aircraft there, Russian military facilities, such as airfields, headquarters, warehouses and logistics centers, etc., will fall under fire. According to another version of the Svitan’s novel, in the case of a large number of air-to-air missiles, such as AIM-120 Amraam, fighters will take on the role of interceptors of Russian missiles, drones and bombers.

Air battles

At the same time, contact battles between Russian and Ukrainian aircraft, according to Roman Svitan, will not happen in this war. Indeed, in the battle, one who first notices the enemy and will have a weapon that can hit the enemy will win. Therefore, it is so important to report on the transfer of Saab 340 flying radars by Sweden. In addition, fighter from the Earth can be covered by Patriot systems.

The Russians, according to David Sharp, are ready for war in the air. For example, according to the command of the Army of the Russian Federation, they have the most long-range air-to-air missile in the world of the R-37M, with a stated maximum shooting distance of 300 kilometers. True, at the moment, these ammunitions could not stop the departures of Ukrainian aviation.

According to rumors, the Ukrainian Air Force will use the airfields of Western neighbors, for example, Poland, as the main bases, and in Ukraine they will fly only for refueling. After all, the F-16 has a relatively small flight range.

David Sharp believes that the first fighters provided by the Allies Kyiv, most likely, will be used at first to strengthen the air defense and will not take risks, flying up to the combat contact line.

“Today, Ukrainian aviation performs only a limited list of tasks,” says a Russian military expert. -However, if the air forces of Ukraine are significantly replenished with Western aircraft, they will be able to both attack ground and surface targets, and strengthen the air defense, knocking down Russian planes, helicopters, cruise missiles and drones. A couple of hundred F-16 could change the rules of the game in this war. But at the moment, there is no question of such deliveries, and it is impossible to train 400 pilots quickly. ”

“The course of the war could change the full-fledged modern air forces,” says David Sharp. - They will include both multi -purpose fighters in the amount of 80–120 units, as well as DRLO aircraft, as well as refueling in the air. Moreover, at least one squadron (12 aircraft) F-16 should consist of aircraft of the last modification with a powerful radar that would allow the most efficient use of long-range missiles. Add to this a wide range of weapons, including air-to-air missiles, allowing you to hunt the enemy aircraft. Another important component is the real combat experience of pilots and the skills of ground personnel that will serve planes on Earth. Only such a system, which works completely, will give a significant result in the current war. However, this is still very far away. ”

F-16 fighters are part of the information environment, in which there is an exchange of information between different aircraft, including DRLO scouts, ground-based control points, radars and even controlled weapons. The Swedish -long -range radar detection and controls of the SAAB 340, the transfer of which became known some time ago, can already be in Ukraine.

They “see” at a distance of 350-400 kilometers and, possibly, already transmit information about the rise of Russian bombers or launches of missiles of Ukrainian air defense.

“As for the Swedish DRLO aircraft, they will still need to train crews and ground technicians,” says David Sharp. -It is not a fact that these reconnaissance aircraft will really stand on combat duty earlier than 2025. There were also rumors about the transfer of French multi-purpose fighters Mirage 2000. According to experts, this plane is inferior to the F-16, but it can carry Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles. However, perhaps such missiles can be adapted to the F-16. Trying now to teach pilots for two completely different types of aircraft would be, in my opinion, completely illogical. ”