In Russia, a preferential mortgage program was closed

Answer the main questions about this decision

Since July 1, Russia was canceled in Russia under 8% “for all”, which has operated for the past four years. During this time, she increased the gap between the cost of primary and secondary housing, greatly influenced the federal budget and became very popular among Russians.

The New Gazeta Europe, together with experts, explains why the program has been closed and what will now be with the real estate market.

Results of the program "State support-2020"

From July 1, 2024, Russia was canceled in Russia of a preferential mortgage for new buildings at 8% (“state support-2020”). It was launched in April 2020 as an anti -crisis measure. The program made it possible to purchase housing from the developer in new buildings or get a loan to build your own home. The difference between the loan rate and the key rate of the Central Bank was compensated by the federal budget.

Over four years, over 1.5 million loans were issued in the amount of about 6 trillion rubles. Dom.rf was calculated that in 2020 and 2021 they issued 1 trillion rubles, in 2022-1.3 trillion rubles, in 2023-for 2 trillion rubles. In 2024, the Russians managed to take loans for 584.6 billion rubles.

RBC with reference to Dom.rf writes that more than 80 banks took part in the program, the list leaders look as follows:

• Sberbank - 870.1 thousand mortgage loans for 3.1 trillion rubles;

• VTB - 278 thousand mortgage loans for 1.1 trillion rubles;

• Alfa-Bank-73.2 thousand mortgage loans for 343 billion rubles;

• Bank "Dom.rf" - 57.9 thousand mortgage loans for 252.6 billion rubles;

• Promsvyazbank - 41.7 thousand mortgage loans for 150.7 billion rubles.

Why did you cancel the program?

The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina explained back in the fall of 2023 that the large amount of current state programs of preferential lending reduces the impact of decisions on the key rate on the dynamics of lending.

“With growing inflation expectations and unchanged levels of nominal rates, such programs become more attractive for borrowers,” she said.

Because of this, the Central Bank saw signs of overheating in a mortgage: it grew by 30% in 12 months. Nabiullin was worried that due to benefits, the availability of loans grew, and not the availability of housing. Also, the Bank of Russia was worried due to the maintenance of detaching the prices of the primary market apartments from the secondary.

At the same time, the director of the Department of Financial Policy of the Ministry of Finance Ivan Chebeskov noted that at that moment preferential programs covered 80–90% of the total primary mortgage market. He believed that this figure should decrease, and the level of subsidies should be kept no higher than 50%.

According to an expert at the financial market, who wished to remain anonymous, there were two groups of reasons for the abolition of a preferential mortgage in 2024.

“On the surface - deformation and overheating of the housing market. Over the past 3-4 years, the cost of a square meter in the housing under construction increased 2 times in nominal terms in rubles. The main reason is the inept management of preferential programs, ”he notes.

The expert cites an example of whole segments of the time when inflation fits in the anticipation of the Bank of Russia, and interest rates on market mortgage programs came closer to the corresponding values ​​for preferential programs. In his opinion, it was at these moments that it would be advisable to complete the “state support-2020”. The authorities then did not do this.

“As a result, we received a situation in which the monthly payment in the case of a preferential mortgage will be no lower than a similar value if the interest rates on a mortgage were fully consistent with the market, but there would not be such a rapid increase in the price of a square meter,” he explains.

As for less obvious reasons, one of them calls the hardware superiority of the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina over the deputy prime minister, the curator of the construction complex Marat Khusnullin. According to him,

If earlier Khusnullin “tore and metal with an increase in interest rates and lobbying“ eternal ”preferential programs,” today there is no trace of the previous rhetoric.

“Given the fact that preferential programs provided guaranteed sales of housing with developers, but the monthly payments of borrowers were not reduced, the abolition of a preferential program is a bitter pill for a sick housing sphere,” the expert said.

In theory, the abolition of a preferential program should create prerequisites for correction of housing prices. But, as the expert notes, everything can turn differently: developers can offer borrowers their own preferential programs, laying the estimated expenses in the very price of housing.

The real estate market expert, who also wished to remain anonymous, noted in a conversation with Novo-Europe that the program really was very popular among Russian citizens. Including because she could be used repeatedly.

“Why was the preferential mortgage from the very beginning not disposable? She was formulated so that a person could take several loans on preferential terms. This naturally provoked investment demand. As a result, such a rewind of demand in the primary, the separation of the cost of new buildings from the cost of similar objects in the secondary market, was obtained. This is absurdity when a ready -made house is cheaper than being under construction, ”he says.

The expert compares the situation in the real estate market with the automobile market: as soon as you drive a car from the car dealership, it falls in price by 20%. The same thing happened with the houses: as soon as the construction of a high -rise building is completed, you cannot sell the apartment in it for the money for which you bought.

How will the program change the market?

Analysts and market participants suggest two main scenarios, says the interlocutor of the New-Europe. The first option includes a certain period of stagnation with a possible decrease, the second-immediately a decrease after a fall in demand in July-August.

In any case, he does not expect a strong collapse of the market. But it involves the emergence of promotions, discounts and joint programs with banks.

“This will partly help to soften the fall, but the market will get used to new parameters for 3-4 months. We are predicting the recession of the market by 25-30% by the end of the year, ”the expert sums up.

The head of the mortgage lending department of the Granda Granel company Tatyana Boeva ​​agrees with him. It expects a decrease in the demand for primary housing by 30–35% in the next two months.

“During this period, deferred demand will begin to form, since millions of people need to improve housing conditions. In the fall, when many get used to the new state of the market, potential buyers will begin to enter the real estate market again, ”she suggested.

The head of the "Cyan. Analytics" Alexei Popov told RTVI that a significant drop in housing prices is unlikely. To do this, developers would have to obtain the approval of banks, and it would mean a deterioration in design financing conditions. In the case of a pessimistic scenario ( deterioration of conditions for family mortgage, canceling all benefits, restrictions on an IT mortgage. - Approx. Ed. ), According to the director of mortgage sales and the implementation of financial instruments of A101 GC A101, Rustam Azizov, the demand in the primary market “has every chance to be reduced by 40%”.

What preferential programs are left?

• Family mortgage (mortgage with state support for families with children). For families with children under the age of 6 years, they will maintain a 6%rate, the conditions will be valid until 2030.

• IT-mortgage (a mortgage with state support for employees of the IT sphere, but only in the companies accredited by the Ministry of Cyphra). It acts until the end of 2024, but the limits can end earlier.

• Rural mortgage . The rate subsidized by the state is valid for all citizens of the Russian Federation who acquire housing in rural areas. It works only once. Banks can exhaust the limit of loans issued under this program.

• Far Eastern and Arctic mortgages. The maximum rate is 2%, the maximum loan amount is 9 million rubles.