Putin believes that Russia can win the war with Ukraine for exhaustion - ISW

Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that he will be able to win the war against Ukraine if he will delay the fighting for an indefinite time. This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for July 2.

"Putin probably believes that Russia can delay the war for an indefinite time and win the war for exhaustion if it can achieve a refusal to Ukraine in decisive international support," analysts say.

Experts believe that the slow, but the constant successes of Russia on the battlefield since the end of 2023 confirm Putin’s assessment and encourage him to avoid any real ceasefire that could put an end to the war.

According to ISW, freezing war on the current distinction line will provide Russia with strategically and promptly important Ukrainian territory, with which the Russian Federation will be able to resume aggression using an experimental army and a restored defense-industrial base.

"ISW continues to evaluate that the ceasefire in Ukraine at the current lines is unlikely to stop further Russian aggression and only give Russia a critical time to restore its forces and prepare for future aggression against Ukraine," ISW emphasized.

Among other things, Moscow leads an enhanced information campaign aimed at push Ukraine to negotiations with the Russian Federation on Russian conditions. This, in turn, will only weaken the Ukrainian state.

"Any Russian, Western or other attempts to persuade Ukraine to premature negotiations with Russia will only weaken Ukraine and encourage further Russian aggression inside and outside Ukraine," added to ISW.

Also, analysts also mentioned the request of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban about the ceasefire, which he voiced during his undeclared visit to Kiev.

Experts came to the conclusion that the execution of a request may lead to support for a wider strategic messenger of the Kremlin. In particular, he aims to create an operational pause desired for the Russian Federation or convince international partners to abandon Ukraine.