A growing crisis

As Russia pushes on multiple fronts, cracks are appearing in Ukraine’s defenses

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of July 12, 2024

Russian troops have stormed settlements on the outskirts of Toretsk, north of Donetsk, creating a new crisis for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU). The Ukrainian command is scrambling to find reserves to close the gaps in the defense, redeploying units of the 95th Air Assault Brigade from the Kupyansk front to the Toretsk area.

The Ukrainian army is also facing a crisis on the Kupyansk front, where Russian forces are advancing toward the Oskil River. This river is crucial for supplying AFU forces positioned on a large bridgehead on the borders of Ukraine’s Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions, and now this supply line is at risk. Additionally, Russian troops are continuing their offensive north of Toretsk, around Chasiv Yar, and to the west, on the Avdiivka front.

These developments suggest difficult months ahead for the Ukrainian army; currently, the AFU lack sufficient forces to halt the Russian attacks. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian command is continuing to move reserves to Kharkiv and Vovchansk with the ultimate, though distant, goal of pushing the Russian army back across the region’s border with Russia, thereby freeing up forces for other fronts.

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Kharkiv and Vovchansk

The AFU have successfully attacked Russian positions in the village of Hlyboke, north of Kharkiv. Ukrainian troops managed to maneuver around the village from the west and reach its northern outskirts. Now, the Ukrainian army has Hlyboke, where there are still Russian troops, surrounded on three sides. Moreover, the supply and reinforcement columns that the Russian command has been trying to send into the village are being targeted by AFU drones — not only in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region but also in Russia’s Belgorod region.

In Vovchansk, where the Russian command has likely redeployed reserves, particularly from the Bakhmut front, the situation remains highly complex. Both armies are occupying positions in residential and industrial areas of the city, as well as on its outskirts, without a clear front line. Ukrainian and Russian units are sometimes even on the same block. Often, these blocks are effectively surrounded by enemy forces, with supplies of ammunition, food, and water being delivered by drones.

A video published on social media suggests that Russian troops have managed to cross the Vovcha River in the city center and enter the southern part of Vovchansk. However, it’s possible that the video, which allegedly shows the shelling of Russian positions on the southern bank of the Vovcha River, has been misattributed and might actually show the shelling of Ukrainian positions.

The situation in the northeast of the city remains unclear, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces operating in close proximity.

The Kupyansk front

With Ukrainian reserves redeployed elsewhere, Russian forces are now facing relatively weak opposition and have advanced to the village of Pishchane, which lies at the center of the Ukrainian defense. Pishchane is about 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) from the Oskil River and 12 kilometers (7.5 miles) from Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. If the AFU can’t stop this advance, the Ukrainian defense around Kupyansk could also find itself in crisis in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the AFU are deploying combat-ready units for localized offensives south of Kupyansk, near Svatove and in the Kreminna Forests. These attacks are likely an attempt to draw Russian troops away from the Kupyansk front.

The Siversk sector

The Russian army is continuing its localized offensive to the south and southeast of the city of Siversk. After prolonged battles that began a year and a half ago, they’ve managed to capture at least part of the village of Spirne, which lies between the Lysychansk Oil Refinery and Siversk.

More Russian troops are advancing toward Spirne from the Rozdolivka area, which was partially captured by Russian forces in June. Over the past week, they’ve advanced about two kilometers (1.2 miles) northward.

Chasiv Yar

The Russian army has completed the first phase of its operation in Chasiv Yar, a city of strategic importance for the Ukrainian defense. Russian troops have captured the Kanal microdistrict on the eastern outskirts of the city — a process that took over three months and resulted in significant personnel and equipment losses for the Russian army.

The city’s geography makes further advancement difficult: the center is on elevated ground and across the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal. The Russian army will likely opt for flanking maneuvers rather than frontal assaults, attempting to bypass the center of Chasiv Yar from the south (from Klishchiivka) and from the north (from the still-uncaptured Kalynivka microdistrict).

Toretsk

Russian troops have breached the AFU’s first line of defense in the Toretsk urban area, south of Chasiv Yar, through powerful attacks on three fronts. In two weeks of fighting, they’ve advanced five to seven kilometers (about three to four miles) into residential areas. Fighting continues along the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal in the settlements of Druzhba, Pivnichne, Pivdenne, the city of Zalizne, and the settlement of Niu-York.

Reportedly, the Russian army used multi-kilometer tunnels to break through AFU defenses near the canal and around Niu-York, allowing troops to get behind Ukrainian lines. (Similar tactics were used during the winter assault on Avdiivka.) These tunnels all lead from territory controlled by pro-Russian forces since 2014-2015, suggesting digging may have begun years ago.

After initial successes in Niu-York and Pivdenne, Russian troops have become bogged down in battles among high-rise buildings there and are facing counterattacks from newly arrived Ukrainian reserves, including forces from the Kupyansk area.

The Avdiivka front

Following several months of fighting west and northwest of Avdiivka, which was captured by Russia in February, the Russian army is in the final stages of an operation to establish a bridgehead for further advances toward the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka road — the main supply line for the AFU groupings in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.

The AFU have been nearly completely pushed back across the Vovcha River (not to be confused with the Vovcha River in Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region) and the Karlivka Reservoir.

It’s likely that the Russian army will soon strike northwest, directly toward the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka road, or north toward Kostiantynivka itself, aiming to cut off the Toretsk urban area from the main AFU grouping in the Avdiivka area from the west.

Elsewhere in the Donetsk region

Russian forces are close to capturing Krasnohorivka, north of Marinka. Units attacking from the south and east have already reached the city's northern outskirts.

The Russian offensive’s next likely target is the city of Kurakhove, which serves as the main supply base for the Ukrainian army in southern Donbas. An attack on Kurakhove could be launched either from Krasnohorivka or from Karlivka, on the southern flank of the Avdiivka front.

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