After the start of the war, about 650 thousand people left and did not return from Russia: The Bell study

The war with Ukraine that began in 2022, mobilization and mass repressions against disagreement forced hundreds of thousands of Russians to leave the country. The authorities rest that many of those who were “scared” at the very beginning managed to return, and do not disclose data on the number of the last wave of emigration. We decided to correct this situation. Almost two and a half years after the start of the war and the publication of a large amount of data by receiving countries, it is safe to say that at least 650 thousand people have left and did not return from Russia, The Bell found out.

The original version of the article and the table incorrectly indicated the official figure of Russians who moved to Latvia. According to the Office for Citizenship and Migration ( 1 , 2 ), for 2022 and 2023 the Latvian authorities issued 1920 new time residence permits. We apologize for inaccuracy.

How many Russians have left Russia

Russia officially does not disclose how many citizens have left after February 24, 2022 and has not yet returned. Data of various departments do not reflect the real picture.

For example, the widely cited data of the FSB border service show only the number of intersections of the Russian border, which one person may have several.
The data of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia on the number of residence permit issued to Russians reflect only those cases when the Russians themselves reported on foreign documents they received, and this is not a duty for those who left and did not return to Russia.

In order to determine exactly how many Russians were decided to emigrate, we had to analyze the statistics of each of the hosts. In many cases, the figures for 2023, when emigration still continued, were published only this year.

To calculate how many Russian citizens did not just leave the country, but remained to live abroad, we turned to the migration and statistical bodies of almost 70 countries. For calculations, we used the data provided in response to our requests, official published figures and statements of officials and diplomats.

Based on these data, it turned out that since the beginning of 2022, about 650 thousand people left Russia. This is 150 thousand more approximate assessments that we did at the end of 2022. A similar assessment in 2023 was given by the publication "to be precise."

Where did they go

Among the leading countries in the number of Russians who moved there, visa-free directions like Armenia (110 thousand people), Kazakhstan (80 thousand), Georgia (74 thousand) were expectedly.

On the same time, the United States suddenly turned out to be in advance on the number of those who left for a wise order: taking into account the resulting “long -term visas”, 48 thousand Russians moved to this country. Also in the top, Israel was in popularity, where about 80 thousand Russians were repatriated.

From European countries, according to statistics, the Russians more often left for:

Germany (36 thousand Russian citizens were there);
Spain (16 thousand);
Netherlands (12 thousand);
About 30 thousand Russians moved to Serbia.

Turkey, another popular direction for emigration, has recently recorded a significant outflow of Russians - they are not prolonged by a residence permit, and life in a country whose authorities cannot cope with a long economic crisis are becoming more expensive. Nevertheless, according to July, in comparison with data at the beginning of 2022, the number of Russians with the Turkish residence permit in the country increased by 28 thousand.

As we thought

When calculating the number of those who have left, there are at least a few restrictions.

Firstly, not all countries popular among new emigrants have provided data. For example, the bodies of Thailand, Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Greece did not respond to The Bell's requests, and the migration and statistical bodies of Cyprus in their answers indicated that they did not keep records of Russian citizens who moved to the island.
Secondly, not all countries published data for 2023-for example, with Portugal, another popular direction for emigrants from Russia thanks to the visa program for “digital nomads”, a residence permit in only 2022 are available.
And thirdly, it is impossible to find out how many, for example, Russians who received a residence permit or permission to work or study abroad, decided to return back to Russia.

Fourth, speaking of Israel, you can only calculate the total number of repatriates, but not all of them remained in the country. In 2022, 32% of repatriates from Eastern Europe left Israel, the study of the Knesset Research Center said . The attack of the Hamas militants on Israel on October 7, 2023 could also provoke a departure of part of the repatriates.

“The statistics of migration are extremely inaccurate compared to statistics of birth rate and mortality, therefore it should be understood that this assessment, although it is seen quite plausible, may differ from reality both in the larger and less,” the demographer Salavat Abylkalikov from the Northumbrian University in the UK and the British non -governmental organization, the British non -governmental organization. Helping researchers who had to be forced to leave their country).

What's next

Despite the small share of the Russians who left for the total Russian population (only 0.5%), the mass emigration of Russians has become the largest over the past 20 years. Prior to this, the largest “wave” was considered the period from 1992 to 2004, when 1.6 million people left the country, according to demographers.

It is important to take into account not only the absolute figures, but also the influence of emigration on the economy, science, culture, Abylcalists notes: “In many ways, emigration, especially in the spring of 2022, as well as the one that continues now, not enhanced by mobilization, is in the nature of the leakage of minds. That is, these are people with a very high level of human capital, many young professionals. ”

In Russia now there is a personnel hunger, and then it will only increase. Russia has already approached Ukraine with a decreasing number of employees. And now a demographic pit is approaching in Russia, Sberbra's business trip to PMEF in June, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko, said . This is evident by reducing the number of graduates of schools and university applicants. The Ministry of Labor expects that by 2030, the country will lack 2.4 million workers.

Economist Rostislav Kaplyushnikov, exploring the labor market, in his article showed a decrease in the total number of labor in Russia and the forecasts of its further reduction.

This migration will have far -reaching consequences, especially from the point of view of demography, the damage caused from the point of view of the demographic development of Russia will be enormous, adds Abylcalists.

“Some of the young emigrants implement their reproductive plans in a new place, which will also slightly reduce the number of births in Russia. In addition, due to demographic waves from 2012 to 2032, the number of people aged 20–39 years will decrease by 13 million people (by 1/3), and people aged 60 and will become more than half (about 13 million people). Personnel hunger will grow and grow until the beginning, in the middle of the 2030s, and we also strengthened this by pushing youth from the country, ”he explains.

If we take into account the potential reduction in migration (especially against the background of the latest anti -migrant statements of the authorities) to the zero level, by 2100 the population in Russia will be 90.8 million instead of 112.2 in the middle version and 57.4 million instead of 74.6 million according to a low prediction version, the expert warns.