The fall of Prohres

A new Russian breakthrough threatens Ukraine’s supply lines at the most vulnerable part of the front

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of July 26, 2024

The Russian army has made significant gains on the battlefield west of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. In the spring, Russian forces advanced several miles along the Avdiivka–Pokrovsk railway in a matter of several days and captured the fortified village of Ocheretyne. In mid-July, after bloody fighting that lasted several months, Russia’s troops achieved another breakthrough along the same railway and captured the village of Prohres. This operation caused the latest in a string of acute crises for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) in the Pokrovsk sector. The situation remains dire for the AFU in other areas of the front as well.

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The Pokrovsk sector

• Having captured the village of Novoselivka Persha, Russian troops have nearly driven the AFU across the Vovcha River between Avdiivka and Pokrovsk, Ukraine’s main logistical base in southern Donbas.
• The main thrust of Russia’s attack, however, occurred north of the river’s bend, along the railroad running from Ocheretyne towards Pokrovsk. Advancing Russian forces captured the village of Prohres and its railway station.
• Russian forces outflanked the AFU to the north and south of Prohres. Ukrainian sources even reported that several of its companies in the northern sector were surrounded.
• If the AFU fails to stabilize the situation, Russian troops across a wide swath of the front may be able to reach the Pokrovsk—Kostiantynivka highway — the main supply line for the AFU’s forces in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk — in a matter of weeks.

Toretsk

• The Russian army’s advance on the villages around Toretsk has, predictably, slowed down after its initial success a month ago.
• The AFU’s command sent major reinforcements to Toretsk from other parts of the front, including Kupyansk and the Pokrovsk sector (which likely contributed to Russia’s breakthrough in Prohres).
• In the villages of Pivdenne and Pivnichne, Russian troops have gotten bogged down in battles for control of areas full of high-rise buildings. Further north, the AFU’s defense is embedded among mine waste dumps dozens of meters high, which also impedes Russia’s advance.
• Russian forces have occupied the southern part of the village of Niu-York, despite counterattacks by Ukraine’s reserve forces. Further north, however, they will inevitably encounter resistance from Ukraine’s forces at the Phenol Plant, which should slow their advance.
• The Russian army has also made significant progress in the village of Zalizne, which neighbors Niu-York. Russia’s command is likely trying to surround (or force out under threat of encirclement) all of Ukraine’s troops between Zalizne and Niu-York.
• Russia’s command could soon decide to launch attacks outside of the villages — west of Niu-York, towards Kostyantynivka — to bypass Toretsk.

The Kupyansk front

• After the AFU transferred one of its most effective formations, the 95th Air Assault Brigade, from the Kupyansk front to Toretsk in mid-July, the situation in the eastern part of the Kharkiv region worsened for Ukraine.
• Russian troops advanced several kilometers to the west and captured the village of Pishchane (or at least most of it), about 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) from the Oskil River, in mid- to late July. The AFU has supply lines along the river across a wide front from Lyman to Kupyansk. Most of the bridges across the Oskil have been destroyed, and the river crossings built by the Ukrainian army are constantly under attack. If Russia reaches the river, it could make it harder for Ukraine to defend Kupyansk and the area encompassing the Kreminna forest and Lyman.

The Kharkiv front

• Ukraine’s counteroffensive to the north of Kharkiv has so far failed to produce results: the AFU’s attempt to cut off the Russian group’s western flank (and later push it across the Russian border) by taking control of the village of Hlyboke was unsuccessful.
• The Russian army transferred reserves to the area and pushed the AFU out of the agricultural buildings where they were stationed on the northern outskirts of Hlyboke.

• In Vovchansk, the Russian army resumed its offensive in the town’s high-rise residential area, which had been interrupted by Ukrainian counterattacks in the eastern and central parts of the town.

Vuhledar

• One week ago, Russian troops unexpectedly advanced several kilometers and reached the Vuhledar-Kostyantynivka highway in southern Donbas. This is the main supply line for Ukraine’s Vuhledar grouping, which has held the area since March 2022, despite several powerful offensives by the Russian army.
• A Russian blockade of this main road won’t accelerate the fall of Vuhledar (Ukraine has backup supply lines to the west of the city), but it will make the situation significantly worse for Ukraine. Russian forces are now dangerously close to the Pivdennodonbaska 1 coal mine, which has served as an important fortified area for the AFU on the Vuhledar front.

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