Deadly innovations

How Russia’s technological advances have led to higher civilian casualty rates in Ukraine in recent months

The rate of civilian deaths from Russian attacks in Ukraine’s frontline regions has risen significantly in recent months, according to calculations by journalists at the outlet Verstka. The civilian casualty count saw an especially sharp increase in the Kharkiv region after Russia launched its new offensive there in May, and the Donetsk region had more civilian deaths in May and June than in any other month so far this year. According to Verstka’s estimates, Russian attacks on Ukrainian-controlled territories killed at least 806 civilians and injured at least 3,585 more in the first half of 2024. Meduza shares key points from Verstka’s report on the new tactics and technologies Russia is using to overcome Ukraine’s defenses.

Three-ton glide bombs

The Russian army has used artillery, aerial bombs, Shahed kamikaze drones, and various long-range missiles to attack Ukraine’s frontline regions in recent months. But Russia’s use of aerial bombs in particular has dramatically worsened the situation both for Ukrainian troops at the front and for civilians in nearby towns and villages, Israeli military expert David Sharp told Verstka.

In the first half of 2023, Russia’s aerial bomb attacks were sporadic, but in the fall, the Russian army began dropping as many as 50 a day, according to Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Yurii Ihnat. In October and November, Western and Ukrainian experts estimated that Russia dropped more than 1,000 aerial bombs each month on average. And in the spring of 2024, Russian forces began using over 3,000 aerial bombs per month, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

According to Sharp, the rapid rise in Russia’s aerial bomb use is a result of Moscow launching mass production of Unified Gliding and Correction Modules (UMPK), inexpensive kits that can attach to conventional bombs to turn them into guided ones. Whereas before Russia avoided using frontline tactical aviation because it required flying close to targets, often resulting in planes getting shot down, the UMPK systems allow for launching bombs from up to several dozen kilometers away, including from Russian territory.

According to Sharp, UMPKs are a “makeshift” copy of American technology like the American Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) kit and fall far short of Western precision weaponry standards. “Still, the bombs reach somewhere near the target area without putting bombers in significant danger,” he said.

Sharp added that the danger from Russia’s tactical aviation is only growing, with Moscow rapidly improving its technology and increasing its ammunition supplies. He also noted that in recent months, the power of the bombs Russia launches with UMPKs has increased from 250 kilograms (550 pounds) to as much as three metric tons.

In the Kharkiv region, Russia initially expanded its use of aerial bombs in frontline areas and first used a UMPK to strike the regional capital in March of this year. According to estimates from the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), Russia carried out two aerial bomb attacks against the city in March, five in April, and 12 in May. In June, it dropped 19 aerial bombs on the city, according to Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov.

Russia’s tactical aviation has been able to reach Kharkiv thanks to its new, more advanced UMBP D-30SN bomb. Ukrainian officials have described the new munition as “something between a missile and a guided bomb” and estimated its range at 90 kilometers (56 miles). Unlike the UMPK, the UMBP D-30SN features an engine and satellite guidance and can be launched from the ground.

Before June, the Russian military actively used S-300 air defense systems to attack Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. However, after the U.S. authorized Ukraine to use HIMARS systems to strike Russian border territory, Russia’s S-300 attacks on Kharkiv stopped, according to the Ukrainian authorities. CIT noted that the cessation in attacks coincided with Ukraine’s destruction of an S-300 in Russia’s Belgorod region.

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Military researcher Kirill Mikhailov confirmed to Verstka that Washington green-lighting HIMARS strikes on Russian territory was a key factor in reducing Russia’s missile attacks on Kharkiv. In June, the Kharkiv authorities reported only two S-300 strikes in the region. Instead, Mikhailov said, it’s become more convenient for Russia to use aerial bombs.

To combat Russia’s increasing aerial bomb attacks, Zelensky has asked the U.S. to authorize Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles to strike airfields deep within Russia. According to Mikhailov, moving Patriot missile systems closer to the border and the front line to strike Russian planes themselves could also disrupt Russia’s air attacks, but this would put the Patriots themselves at risk of being targeted. He added that F-16 fighter jets could also be used to target Russian bombers once they’re deployed in Ukraine, but they would also be at risk of being shot down.

Further afield

Russia has also begun using more long-range cruise and ballistic missiles as well as Shahed kamikaze drones to hit Ukrainian cities far from the front line. In the Odesa region, for example, these attacks resulted in more casualties than in some frontline regions, killing at least 64 people and injuring at least 223 others in the first half of 2024.

Further north, in the Kyiv region, Russian strikes killed at least 10 people and injured at least 168 in the first six months of this year. Until recently, the city’s air defense system seemed to have become “impenetrable,” Mikhailov told Verstka; the last attacks that caused dozens of injuries were in the winter, when Russia began focusing more on destroying energy infrastructure throughout the entire country.

Then, on July 8, the Russian army hit Kyiv with its most destructive missile attack in Ukraine so far this year, killing 33 people and injuring 120. One of its missiles hit the country’s largest children’s hospital, Okhmatdyt.

Following the attack, Austrian military analyst Tom Cooper suggested that Russia’s missiles may have managed to evade Ukraine’s air defenses because previous attacks on Ukrainian equipment, including radar stations, created a pathway from the Russian border to central Ukraine through which missiles could travel without being detected in time for Ukraine to react.

Kirill Mikhailov told Verstka that while a significant number of Ukrainian radar stations have indeed been destroyed in recent months, he believes a different technological breakthrough is responsible for Russia’s successful strikes: improved reconnaissance drones that can penetrate deeper into Ukrainian territory and detect radar and air defense systems. After locating these systems, Russia targets them with Iskander missiles, which only Patriots can shoot down, Mikhailov said.

Most Ukrainian air defense systems are not designed to handle small reconnaissance drones, so Ukrainian forces are trying a new method to counter them: using small FPV drones, which are controlled in real time using a camera, to ram and destroy them.

Additionally, according to Mikhailov, the Russian army has found a new way to evade Ukrainian air defenses with cruise missiles. “This doesn’t inspire confidence in the future,” Mikhailov said, commenting on Russia’s July 8 attack.

At this point in the war, Mikhailov said, Russia likely only has its “untouchable” stockpile of missiles reserved for a potential war with NATO left in its reserves, but its current production rate is much higher than before the war. This allows the Russian military to carry out one or two large-scale attacks each month that, while smaller than the ones it launched in the winter of 2022–2023, can still do significant damage in Ukraine.Moscow’s production of cheap aerial bombs for use in frontline regions is also growing, he added.