The Russian army could gain one and a half times less new contractors than the Ministry of Defense claims. Are the Russians willingly go to war? Research of "important stories" and CIT
After mobilization, Russia launched an active campaign for a set of contractors to continue sending people to war with Ukraine. The main incentive is money: from August 1, for the conclusion of the contract, Russians will only receive 400 thousand rubles from the federal budget (earlier the payment was 195 thousand rubles) and payment from the region, in some entities - almost two million rubles. According to the authorities, this allowed to get 730 thousand new contractors in a year and a half.
“Important stories”, together with Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), analyzed data on one -time payments and tell how the contract is actually a contract and how much it cost the state.
Ned -shaped
Named Ministry of Defense numbers can be overstated one and a half times. As follows from the data on the expenses of the federal budget, from the fall of 2022 to April 2024, a one-time payment for the conclusion of the contract (195 thousand rubles at that time) received about 426 thousand Russians. The Ministry of Defense announced the number of 214 thousand people more - according to the department by the same date, 640 thousand were received for the contract service (more about the calculation methodology - in the section “As we thought”).
As we thought
The number of new contractors in Russia
“Important stories” studied reports on the execution of the federal budget for the 2022th, 2023th and I quarter of 2024. We raised the amounts of expenses that are held under the article on a one -time payment for the conclusion of the contract, and divided by the amount of payment - 195 thousand rubles (on July 31, the payment was raised to 400 thousand rubles). It is laid for those who concluded a contract after September 21, 2022 for a period of a year or more, that is, those who went to the war under the contract in the first half a year of full -scale war or signed a short -term contract are not included in this number. Probably, part of the people who received this payment was already at the front - for example, mobilized or soldiers of volunteer units who decided to sign a contract. However, judging by the data on expenses in the regions, this category is not so great.
How many people received payments for the conclusion of the contract from April to July is unknown, since the data on budget expenditures for this period have not yet been published. To compare data on payments and official statements, we used the numbers of the Ministry of Defense for the 2023rd and the first three months of 2024 . Later, Dmitry Medvedev said that by July 2024, contracts concluded 190 thousand people.
Distribution of new contractors and mobilized by region
“Important stories” have collected data on the expenses of the regions for payments to participants in the war and their families. In most cases, we are talking about one -time payments that the regions appointed mobilized and contractors. Some regions separately indicate the costs of payments to the registered battalions, as well as conscripts or mobilized, signing the contract.
If the region hid these expenses, we used other indirect data from reports on the activities of relevant departments: the number of families mobilized on “social support”, data on “social passports” (a document that contains information about the social needs of the family) of war participants. If there were no such data on the region, we focused on the statements of officials or local military commissars. By comparing data on regions in which there are both payment data and officials of officials, we came to the conclusion that officials can overestimate numbers, on average, by 15%. We have established the number of mobilized in 59 regions, the number of contractors in 44 regions; These data cover 72% of the total number of mobilized and 50% of the alleged number of new contractors. The number of both categories of military personnel is known in 39 regions (in 29 of them the numbers are accurate, in the rest - evaluative: in cases where the budget expenditures were indicated simultaneously for payments to contractors and mobilized together, we used the average ratio of mobilized and contractors in other regions). The rest hid the expenses of their support in the budget execution reports and did not indicate their number in departmental documents.
The proportion of men who have gone to war by regions
We calculated what share from the male population at the age of 18-50 the amount of mobilized and contractors, recruited in 2022–2024, make up. 50 years - the marginal age of the draft for ordinary and sergeant composition; We took it as a basis in the calculations and for contractors, as it follows from the data on military losses that the vast majority of contractors are also at this age). Probably, some of the men can be taken into account twice, as some mobilized go to the contract. Data on regional expenses for payments to contractors show that this category is small.
Part of the people recruited to the front does not fall into the data on payments for the conclusion of the contract, while the authorities can take them into account in statements about the recruitment to the front. But their number is not so large and cannot explain such a difference between the number of payments and the statements of the Ministry of Defense, CIT analysts say. Thus, fighters of volunteer detachments and irregular units like Redut PMCs do not receive federal payment: formally they are not military personnel. In the same position, the so -called " special contingent " - prisoners recruited to the front, a set of which in 2023 began to engage in the Ministry of Defense. They complainmassively that they do not receive benefits and benefits laid down by other contractors. And on the contrary, the data on payments can be taken into account on the side of the DPR and LPR, who went into submission to the Ministry of Defense and had to conclude a contract with the department.
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The inaccuracy of the voiced Ministry of Defense of numbers is confirmed by other observations. Entire assault units from the wounded and crippled soldiers appeared at the front: “This has already acquired such extreme forms when people on crutches and with Ilizarov’s devices are sent to the front. We see this in all regions, starting from the Far East to the border regions, ”CIT experts say. The regions also continue to increase payments for the conclusion of the contract in an attempt to attract new people, and Putin recommended that all regions raise this amount to at least 400 thousand rubles. With a sufficient number of military men they would not have happened, analysts say.
The fact that the plan of the Ministry of Defense for the set of contractors is not fully implemented is confirmed by the source of “important stories” in one of the selection points for a contract in the RF Armed Forces (we do not indicate its location for the security of the interlocutor). According to him, in 2023, the regions managed to fulfill the plan only 50-60%. This year, the recruitment of contractors is higher, but they still gain a minus due to the number of irreparable losses of the RF Armed Forces, the interlocutor of “important stories” explains.
In reality, part of the new contractors that the authorities report does not increase the number of warring groups. “We do not physically see this number of new people at the front, because some of them were already in the war, they just have changed status. Barches, mobilized, and soldiers of volunteer formations that have concluded a contract are recorded there so that the region can report up the implementation of the plan, ”explains CIT. - They are not worried that at the same time people at the front will not increase - the main thing is that the statistics are performed. But the number of new contracts, but the number of new people in the army is important. ”
A summons or contract
Regional reports on one -time payments to contractors and mobilized, who studied “important stories” are also talking about the inaccuracy of the figures of the Ministry of Defense. If the figures of the military department were correct (302 thousand mobilized and 730 thousand contractors for 2023-12024 ), then on average, in each region, contractors should be 2.4 times more than mobilized. However, this is not so: on average, the contract signed only 1.4 times more than those who have left the agenda. 10 of the 29 regions, in which accurate data are available (more above - higher in the section “As we thought”), and completely failed the contract for the contract - mobilized more than they managed to attract for money.
Among these regions are subjects that “overfulfilled” the plan to mobilize and called on more men than promised by the authorities 1.1%. For example, about 4900 people were mobilized in Buryatia - this is 2.2% of men 18-50 years old. The republic gained almost 500 people less to the contract than called on the summons, it should be from payments. Considering that even before the war in Buryatia there were many contracts under the contract, and mobilized 2 times more to the front than they promised, it could be difficult for the authorities to find new people who wanted to conclude a contract, the Analysts of Conflict Intelligence Team suggest. A similar situation in the Trans -Baikal Territory, where 2.3% of the reserve was mobilized - more than 5300 people. This is 1.4 times the number of those who signed the contract since the beginning of 2023.
Also, among the regions that failed the recruitment-Kirov, Kaluga, Sverdlovsk, Murmansk regions, Khakassia, Kabardino-Balkaria and Stavropol Territory. In some of them, contractors are laid down low payments compared to other regions: for example, in Khakassia, only 50 thousand rubles are paid for the conclusion of the contract, in the Kaluga region - 100 thousand .. Some of these regions in 2024 significantly increased the lump -sum payment, probably hoping thus correcting the situation. For example, Kabardino-Balkaria, where 1.5 times more than “new” contractors, began to pay almost three times more-805 thousand rubles instead of the previous 300 thousand.
“Important stories” established from which regions 219 thousand mobilized and 227 thousand contractors went to the front. These data show that from some regions, almost 5 times more men in percentage were taken from some regions than from other subjects. If in Moscow the mobilized and contractors who entered the war, who entered the service after February 24, 2022, make up only 1.5% of the number of men 18-50 years old, then in the leading regions this share is close to 5%. At the same time, some Russians specially go to conclude a contract to the region where they offer a higher one -time payment, CIT analysts say.
Among the leaders are the subjects who established high payments for the conclusion of the contract: the Sakhalin Region (4.8% of men under 50 years old went to the war) and the Primorsky Territory (4.7%) in 2023 paid new contractors of 300 thousand rubles. Also, the total share of mobilized and new contractors is high in the “poor” regions where the average per capita income is below the country in the country - for example, Buryatia (4.3%) and Karelia (4.6%).
Who goes to the contract
In the first year of a full -scale war with Ukraine, the main source of recruiting people for a contract was a call service. The authorities continue attempts to replenish the ranks of contractors with the help of conscripts and mobilized, some forced to sign contracts with threats or deception . However, a serious result still cannot be achieved, it should be from data on the expenses of regional budgets. For example, in the Smolensk region, for a year and a half, approximately 309 draftees and 120 mobilized contracts concluded. This is 11% and 4% of all new contractors, respectively. In the Orenburg region, conscripts signed only 4% of contracts.
Now the main resource is prisoners and people with financial problems. “They began to look among those who have the so -called social debts: alimony, communal apartment. Of the will from will - almost half with debts in enforcement proceedings of more than 50 thousand rubles, ”say CIT analysts. “Important stories” told how the regional authorities were instructed to recruit debtors, bankrupt, migrants, unemployed, and other vulnerable categories of the population to the contract.
426 thousand people could receive payments for a contract -brothers, claims 1.5 times more
“Recently, everyone who comes to the contract comes due to money. The ideological either already disappointed or died. Some insist that they are taken, even despite unsuitability of health service, ”says a source of“ important stories ”in one of the selection points for a contract. According to him, there are many who, after some time, calls from the front and asks if it is possible to return the money received in exchange for returning home.
For the first quarter of 2024, 73.3 thousand people received payment for the conclusion of the contract, while for the same period the banks received 33 thousand applications for a credit vacation from the warring in Ukraine. If we assume that one loan has one loan and a deferred application is submitted without delay, then almost every second new contractor may have debts.
Scarce resource for three trillion
For two years, the state spent at least 1.1 trillion rubles in Ukraine - at least 925.4 billion from the federal and 179 billion from regional budgets (monthly social payments, contractors and military doctors were taken into account for the warring families, lump -sum payments for the conclusion of the contract and subsidies to the Defender of the Fatherland Fund). And payments for death and injury could amount to another 2.6 trillion rubles for the entire time of the war, calculated the RE project: Russia, assuming that the authorities listed the promised compensation to everyone (however, this number can be overstated due to the fact that the authorities are reluctant to pay money for injuries and try to complicate this process, say CIT experts). Total - " New Elite " could cost Russia more than 3.7 trillion rubles.
The regions compete with each other for a scarce resource - volunteers, so they constantly increase payments for the conclusion of the contract. The main thing is not to be the last on the list, because the plan is launched from above, it must be fulfilled
Analysts CIT
With the help of such injections, the authorities could recruit more than 720 thousand new soldiers - 302 thousand mobilized and 426 thousand contractors, and this is without taking into account prisoners and fighters of irregular units. This is three and a half times more than at the time of the intrusion - then the grouping of Russian troops in Ukraine was estimated at 200 thousand people. Thus, Russia significantly strengthened the army in terms of numerical composition and was able to wrap the situation at the front in its favor:
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“In the fall of 2022, the front rained down because there were not enough people, and then Putin announced mobilization. The first mobilized were thrown without preparation for plugging holes in the Kharkov region. Now they are mainly used to have a stable front line, plus a lot of people need all kinds of rear work, ”say CIT analysts. - And for offensive actions, the authorities discovered an amazing source in the form of volunteers who go to the contract for money. Without them, it would be very difficult to conduct resource -fitting assaults that we see over the past year. ”
But this is still not enough to close the need for people in the war. Russia still needs to make up for losses, conduct an offensive and strengthen the front line. Therefore, the authorities increase payments in order to attract as many debtors and others to earn money as possible. According to the estimates of “important stories”, on average, the regional payment for signing the contract increased 1.5 times a year, and taking into account municipal surcharges- 2.4 times by June 2024.
“The base of people who were ready to go to war for less money ended, and the plan for the set remained. The regions compete with each other for a scarce resource - volunteers, so they constantly increase payments for the conclusion of the contract. The main thing is not to be the last on the list, because the plan is launched from above, it must be fulfilled, ”concludes CIT experts.
