Great exchange

Why Putin decided to give the political prisoners to the West

Russia and the United States made a grandiose exchange of political prisoners. Rumors about him have been going on for the past few days, and now we know: there are 24 people in a listen. Among them are Vladimir Kara-Murza, Ilya Yashin, Lilia Chanysheva, Paul Wylan and Evan Gershkovich. The main of those who are changed on the other side is the famous “Berlin killer” Vadim Krasikov, who, according to the plan of Christ Grozhev, had to exchange Alexei Navalny for a long time. Actually, this exchange began with those plans.

What follows from this?

First. Now it’s clear why they killed Navalny. Negotiations about this exchange began with Navalny-but it was Navalny that he didn’t get into it. He was not subject to exchange, because the only one posed a real political threat. He was the opposition assembly point and the only popular public leader on whom the United States could make a real bet. The elimination of Navalny was not a momentary emotional solution. It was a cold chess move.

Second. With this exchange, the Kremlin wants to demonstrate its readiness to negotiate. Putin transferred the experience of showdowns of the 90s to international politics. As in the showdown of the 90s, the kid creates situations. But just as in the showdown of the 90s, the kid holds the word. He is ready to solve the situations that he himself created. The fact that politicians in the West do not create situations and do not take hostages is not in this case. We live in a world as Putin sees it. There is no reception against scrap.

Third. Putin had to get his agents out of Western prisons. Firstly, because “intelligence does not throw his own,” and secondly, to send new ones. Now new agents who will go to the West to deal with the opposition can be sure: they will not be thrown. They will be pulled too. You don’t have to sit for life. If you took it, you have to be silent. They will still be pulled out, and then they will be highly ascended in their homeland.

Fourth. Putin could wait, and make an exchange after the November elections in the United States. But he did it now that - a clear, although not so big election plus for the American Democrats. Bayden really wanted to pull Gershkovich. This shows who the Kremlin really would like to see the winner in the election race.

The Kremlin would like the victory of Kamaly Harris. He prefers the current course of the democratic establishment of Trump's unpredictable policy.

Fifth. Exchange is a twisted ball that will make an additional confusion in the already inconsistent ranks of the Russian opposition abroad, and above all, will weaken the positions of the FBK. FBK, led by Navalny, would be dangerous. But FBK without Navalny made a lot of Faux Pas. After the Kremlin declared them terrorists, this cut them off from Russian donates, and therefore, from live feedback with Russian business. As a result, American grants were the main source of the existence of the FBK. The result was the support of many dubious sanctions that hit the ordinary Russians and emigrants, the film “Traitors” and not very beautiful attempts to cancel activists who have grown up on Earth.

In such a situation, the appearance in the West of people with an impeccable moral reputation, strictly anti -war people who have served their beliefs in prison, will turn out to be an unpleasant challenge for many existing emigrant structures - especially since these competitors for grants, unlike Hera Graryumova, can no longer cancel the campaign on Twitter.

Once again: in front of us is a cold, verified, multi -way operation, which was conceived and was performed not even a year or even two. Putin calculated everything.

The editors may not share the opinions of the author.