Impossible losses grow

And this forces the Ministry of Defense to increase salaries for new contractors and form infantry regiments from aviation mechanics

The offensive of Russia in Ukraine continues - the losses of the armed forces are growing. Military authorities and power are desperately trying to replace the retired soldiers, promising to pay a lot of money to new contractors, which even wire bloggers are not at all happy. But what about those who have been fighting for two years and have not seen such amounts in life, they ask. At the same time, infantry formations collected from employees of the aerospace forces appear at the front. About why the Russian government is an offensive at all costs and how the wire-wire authors react to this-in the new column of the writer, producer and researcher I am the Z-community Ivan Filippov.

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The main theme of the last weeks in the Z-channels is the extremely low rates of “replenishing manpower” with “excess losses at the front”. In human language, in the assault on Ukrainian villages and cities, more Russian military dies, which comes to their place of contractors. This topic every day is becoming more and more acute, they write about it, they write a lot and sometimes quite emotionally.

The wire -wire authors are based both on their own data and on indirect ones: the main channels pay attention to how space speed the payments to new contractors are growing, and to new methods of advertising of the service that the Russian authorities use. In these decisions, the Z-community sees a desperate attempt by the military to gain the necessary number of soldiers, avoiding a new wave of mobilization.

At the same time, literally under every Z-text describing the problem, one of the readers certainly wonders: “But if everything is so bad, then why is the Russian army progressing and capturing more and more new territories?” This is a completely reasonable, if not an obvious question. Logic tells us: an army, which is bad, must lose. If, on the contrary, she successfully moves the front line, it means that everything is in order for her. Not really.

In reality, the dependence here is rather the opposite: the longer the offensive of the Russian army is, the louder the wire authors hit the alarm. Their anxiety is not due to the fact that the offensive is not developing enough successfully, but with the price that the advancing army pays for each meter. And with the understanding that the Ministry of Defense is not enough for people to replenish “excess losses”.

The most high-profile texts of the last week were written by the author of the Channel “Military Cotton”, “Herifying Military Correspondent”, editor-in-chief of the news portal “Today.ru”, the observer and editor of the information and analytical service of the Donbass, in fact- Yuri Kotenok himself. In a series of very emotional posts, he spoke about the progress of the Russian army in the Kharkov direction:

“The pace of our advancement slowed down. Slowly from Donetsk to the west is a half. Toad jumps. It is clear why the slowdown. There are no people. The level of losses is high. For those who do not understand - there is no one physically advance. A living force was exhausted. " (Spelling and punctuation of the original here and further preserved.)

In his text, the kitten also said that in some directions the Russian military stopped taking the dead, “since this increases the statistics of losses,” and made disappointing conclusions that no “goals” could not be achieved at such a pace. It is pointless to think about Kharkov and Odessa: “A simple calculation: we will clean only the DPR at such a pace through ... two years.”

Why, in this case, Russia continues to advance? The kitten offers such an answer with which many military experts agree: “Everyone understands that by the end of the year there is a probability of the beginning of an agreement, they are trying to be in time.”

Russian troops are advancing because after the US presidential elections, peace negotiations may begin and we must have time to capture as many territories as possible. Because of this, the advancing army, which, by definition, carries losses higher than the defender, does not have time to make up for them. As a result, losses in the exhausted troops are becoming more and more and the pace of advance slows down. But does not stop. Something like this can briefly formulate the main idea, which is translated by the last weeks of individual wire channels.

In one of my past columns, I told how Zvtorka Anastasia Kashevarova was the first to write about the now widespread practice to send undersized wounded to the front. This was done exactly for the very reason that the kitten writes about - the absence of people. Last week, the authors of the Fighterbomber channels and “refuge No. 8” already spoke about the new initiative of the Russian military leadership, designed to replenish the unprotibly lost at the front. Fighterbomber wrote about the appearance of the motorized rifle regiment of the aerospace forces-the phenomenon in a normally functioning army to determine the impossible.

According to the author, the regiment is equipped with engineering, technical, flight and flight lifting composition: “Armedians, radio operators, mechanics, engines and brassists. Sergeants, warrant officers and officers. It seems that there is even one navigator. Fighting norms. Like everyone else. "

The mobilized author of the Shelter No. 8 channel added that such a practice is widespread not only in the VKS: “In the Navy, as soon as they can, contractors are transferred to the Marine Corps brigades. Until the transformation of the commandant platoon into an assault. In addition, there are situational initiatives at the front. For example, take at least a few “unnecessary” signalmen to replenish the assault company. <...> To form an evac group from the mortar battery - after the loss of the matred. Dissolve a sniper platoon of a sniper company to throw the personnel into a storm platoon. ”

He also confirms the main conclusion that I formulated a little higher: permanent lack of people - "the result of constant, without operational pauses for replenishment and preparation of a positional offensive."

The Z-community also pays attention to the attempts of the federal authorities to somehow solve the problem. The authors agree that the endless process of increasing payments to new counterattles is an attempt by the authorities to pay off the need for a new wave of mobilization. True, the fact that payments are raised and raised, firstly, suggests that even for a lot of money those who want to die in the Donbass are still not enough, and secondly-the question of the already fighting military has been completely expected: why do not pay extra money to them.

On the issue of payments to new contractors, perhaps the most indicative example is St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region. At the beginning of this year, the payment amounted to 695 thousand rubles. The authorities consistently raised it: in March, June and twice in July this year. Now on the advertising posters “At the city-Hero-Svoi Heroes” the amount of a one-time payment of 2.1 million rubles is indicated . At the federal level, on July 31, Putin signed a decree on an additional increase in a lump -sum payment for the service “in the zone of Svo” to 400 thousand rubles.

“Putinsky 400 thousand I approve <...>. At the same time, I perfectly understand the feelings of mobilized and voluntarily entering the contract in 2022–2023. People went to die for their homeland in the most difficult period of the war and vigorously flew past all subsequent payments, ” wrote , commenting on this news, the author of the channel“ How I went to war. Plato Mamatov. " The telegram channel of the neo-Nazi unit of the DShRG Rusich formulated the same thought tougher: “Someone, tap the bunker door and tell the grandfather that there are people who signed the contract in 2022 before mobilization and did not receive any payments from the state for this. At the same time, they cannot break the contract and do not receive anything in a time. ”

In the quote from DShRG “Rusich”, another problem is raised that Zuletors recall more and more often-the impossibility of breaking the contract and the very fact that many contractors were essentially deceived, leaving in the war unlimitedly and without the opportunity to quit. Without dwelling on this topic separately, I will give only one quote from the military personnel published in the channel “Military Cotton”: “Further the problem will grow like a snowball. And there are wives, parents, children. Do you think they will obediently wait? And how will this affect new volunteers? And what will the fighters do when it becomes completely unbearable? We know how, in 1917-18, entire regiments left the front home. Do we need to repeat this? "

Zubtors have no doubt about what exactly the attraction of unprecedented generosity is related to-this is an attempt by the authorities to simultaneously solve the issue of people's lack and avoid new mobilization. The author of the Soldier Pravda channel believes that, just if the old contractors finally begin to go home and the service will again have clear terms, this can help much more than just a mechanical increase in payments. And then “not only those who have nothing to lose and it makes no difference that they have only one way, but also those who still have plans for their lives will go.”

As far as the Russian authorities will be able to solve the problem growing every day, it is not clear. There are no consensus on this one by Zubtors-for example, the two major channel writes that the second wave of mobilization is “not planned”, and Colonel Victor Alksnis, the author of the Black Colonel channel, on the contrary, is more pessimistic : “The Kremlin is afraid to go to a new mobilization, fearing a sharp negative reaction to this Russian society. But apparently, she is becoming more and more inevitable every day. ”

Whether Vladimir Putin will decide to declare a new mobilization, only he knows, but the persistence with which for the past few months the Z-channels continue to raise the issue of a catastrophic lack of people, gives a very important context to daily news about the “promotion” of Russian troops in separate sections of the front. If the offensive continues, it is likely that the lack of “manpower” lost in the assaults can become critical.

The author’s opinion may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial office.