Kursk experiment

What is the purpose of the operation of the Armed Forces in Russia, and what consequences it will lead

The Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, as always in the war, has two dimensions: tactical and strategic.

From a tactical point of view, this is a perfectly prepared maneuver: at first, intelligence with a battle, then when the Tiktok-Wasker, who covered the border, hurriedly fled, the 22nd brigade (new, almost in Europe formed), plus “Aidar”, the best military force after “Azov”. It was followed by two more brigades-the 80th and 88th. Apparently, even before eight brigades is now in reserve.

Thus, the complaints that the newly formed brigades had nothing to arm in was partly a cunning trick, designed to mislead.

The troops entered into a breakthrough concentrated 100 km from the border - that is, Russian intelligence obviously took them for troops, which are collected for counterattacks in the Kharkov direction.

In textbooks, this will be studied as a classic case of how to achieve tactical surprise on a modern transparent battlefield.

Separately, it is worth mentioning the new tactics of the use of drones and electronic warfare (radio electronic warfare), which has become an important factor in the success of the offensive. Apparently, Ukrainian troops are moving with a powerful cover of the electronic warfare, which knocks down most Russian drones. Russia has no “eye” in the sky over Sudaja now or they are not enough.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine massively use a shield from the latest electronic warfare at pre -programmed frequencies that use Russian drones, and at the same time use their latest drones themselves. It was such drones, as the SBU claims, shot down two Russian helicopters - the case is almost unheard of. The helicopter costs $ 16 million, the pilots are even more expensive, there are few of them, and they are an involuntary resource. FPV drone, even sophisticated, will cost at best several thousand dollars. Also, with a high probability in Russia, there is now serious Ukrainian air defense, and in the Kharkov area the F-16 is covered with its second echelon.

The blow has several obvious goals. One is the Suda gas -measuring station. They took it to the Armed Forces, of course, not to turn off the gas to Europe. Ukraine could turn the valve for its part. She was then taken, so that, when trying to recapture the station, everything would explode to hell and the gas would end. Gas measuring station is the perfect cover against the Kremlin. The locals of the Russian army are not sorry, and the gas -measuring station is a completely different matter.

And the second, the main goal: to force Putin to hastily withdraw troops from the Donbass, where the APU front is already breaking and cracking, or at least from the Kharkiv region, and transfer to the Kursk region.

Separately, it is worth emphasizing that the attack on Sudu does not create any threats to the supply lines of Russian troops in Kharkov. Who doubts it can look at the card. Suzha is a logistics dead end, the road from it goes only to Sumy. It is only about pressure in order to transfer troops.

Actually, the list of brilliant tactical successes can be finished on this, because the question arises: what next?

The Russian army, as expected, turned out to be unprepared, because both countries were beating with the last forces, both have no reserves, and all the reserves were at the front, and what was standing at the border was unusual for the war. In addition, the Russian army is not at all adapted to quick tactical reactions. The dinosaur thinks for a long time. He takes others. And in general, you can take anyone in surprise: recall October 7, 2023.

But then what? APU will continue to advance? It is impossible to advance by the forces of four brigades. What the offensive looks like in the modern war, in which the army with weak logistics and insufficient reserves enters the enemy with dashing tank wedge, we saw in this war near Kiev two and a half years ago. But then there were no drones.

I think that Russian generals prayed all these four days to go forward, to Kursk or at least to nuclear power plants, but Syrian is clearly not a fool to get caught like that.

He graduated from the Moscow Higher Command-Washing School, and not Tiktoku courses.

Therefore, the Armed Forces will be dug - which they are already doing. Moreover, even in some places you do not need to dig. It is enough for the Armed Forces to take the strengthening of the Surovikin line by the fortifications of the Surovikin line (from which the Tiktok-Valus) and expand them in the other direction kindly built for them. It is a sin not to take such an opportunity. Just these fortifications are 10-15 km from the border on the Russian territory.

Therefore, the Russian army can not be rushed. Do not rush to transfer troops directly under the blow of Himars, against the scouts, not to fight in the hand -to -hand in the oncoming battle. The Armed Forces are dug, and after that they will be destroyed by the bands.

So if anyone has not yet left the districts of the Kursk region occupied by the Armed Forces, leave immediately. They will take out the phases of everything-as in 2008, the Georgian tanks were taken out in Tskhinvali and in 1999 carried out high-mountain villages in Dagestan along with the Basayevs who went there (however, then the inhabitants of these villages were often unhappy with this Basaev attempt to “liberate the infidels from power” than Russian phases and fought in Dagestan. militia against Basayev).

And in this war there is already a similar precedent: Krynka. The bridgehead was also very successfully occupied by the bridgehead and - while the Russian army tried to recapture it in oncoming infantry attacks, they caused great damage to the Russian army. But then the Russian army began to nail the bands. About a thousand APU soldiers died to no avail, and the krynka had to be left.

Imagine the situation: the Russian army continues to slowly advance in the Donbass, cuts the Pokrovsk -Konstantinovka road, which it remains 5 km before, the entire Ukrainian front in the Donbass collapses - and several well -prepared and well -armed Armed Forces brigades at that time are sitting in the Kursk region on a Piglet of 350 kV. km., And they are slowly grinding the phases - with all their best rab and the best drones they gave them.

And then, of course, the question arises for Ukrainian society: did this all this new REB, and new drones, and new brigades, and the best units use this way? Maybe it was better for them to plug the holes at the front in the Donbass?

And, you see, the same question arises in the West.

This war is not alone. She has partners, and the task of these partners has long been clear. To prevent the victory of Russia, to prevent the defeat of Ukraine, and prevent escalation. The escalation is understood as the probability that Putin, driven into a corner, will use nuclear weapons. At the same time, as the Ukrainian army weakening, the danger of escalation, paradoxically, is growing.

It grows for two reasons. Firstly, Putin does not want to stop wars: he believes that he has a strategic advantage, and as he realizes this advantage, the United States and Europe have to get deeper into the war and prevent the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

And secondly, it is growing because for the president of Zelensky the stop of war means the loss of power, and the president of the Zelensky power does not intend to lose.

The exit from this ladder of the escalation for the world is obvious: the cessation of the war. There is no other reason to stop the war from the United States and Europe, except for the fear of escalation, we note.

And after Sudzhi, the United States can rightly decide that the main goal of the Sudzhensky breakthrough is the disruption of negotiations and the same escalation.

The most paradoxical, at the same time, is that the ultimate reaction of the United States and Europe will depend on what will happen on Earth. The attack of the Armed Forces will be choked and it will be slowly grinding - they will conclude in the style of “Well, you have a mediocre weapon given to you, and now you are drawing us into another round of escalation, we will not give anything.” It turns out to be successful-"Oh, look, these guys make sense to support, let's allow them something else."

On January 30, 1968, the Viet Congovites, who seemed to be already defeated by American troops, began a sudden operation, which was called “Tet’s offensive”: a series of outlets, attacks and military attacks on the settlements of South Vietnam, which, as the Viet Kongians believed, were to provoke a popular uprising. The uprising did not happen, the attackers suffered heavy losses, but the public opinion in the United States has completely changed. Hearing from their generals that in order to defeat the Communists, another 200 thousand troops were needed, the American public waved her hand and said that it was necessary to get out of Vietnam.

In February 1945, the Wehrmacht began the offensive operation of Sonnenwende, that is, "Solstice". At that moment, Soviet troops rushed to Berlin, the defeat was already inevitable, and Sonnenwende had to disrupt the offensive, forcing the Red Army to focus on Pomerania. So it happened. The bet of the East Pomeranian offensive operation began in response, and the fall of Berlin was detained for several months. But this did not change the general course of the war.

What exactly will ultimately become the result of the Kursk offensive operation, and whether the brilliant tactical success of unclear strategic consequences cost it impossible to predict.

It depends primarily on the situation on Earth. This is called war.