Blotter and Andromeda

The German prosecutor's office accused Ukrainian citizens of undermining the Northern Streams. How can this change the relationship of Berlin and Kyiv?

On August 14, it became known that the German authorities issued an international order for the arrest of a citizen of Ukraine Vladimir J. on suspicion of organizing explosions in Northern Streams in 2022. Kyiv denies its participation, as well as in principle, awareness of the operation.

A few days before the name of the suspect was named, news appeared that Germany allegedly froze military assistance to Ukraine. Although German officials immediately explained that we are not talking about a sudden cessation of support and in the future it will be provided, and the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called such a provocative news presentation, the topic really became the arena of fierce political struggle in Germany. Opposition parties, especially the ultra -right “alternative to Germany” and the extreme left “Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance”, criticize the ruling coalition for ignoring the results of the investigation and urge to stop the support of Ukraine. As in Berlin they react to the confirmed involvement of Ukrainian citizens to undermine gas pipelines, and whether the opposition’s criticism is able to destroy the Alliance of Berlin and Kyiv, ”Andrei Smolyakov, the observer of the European and international policy of Novy-European.

The investigation in the case of explosions on the North Stream gas pipeline began almost two years ago. On September 26, 2022, Danish services first reported a leak on the North Stream-2 gas pipeline, and soon it became known about leaks on the Northern Stream-1. Copenhagen later confirmed that explosions were led to a leak. They agreed with this conclusion to the UN .

After that, the Danish police, together with Norwegian colleagues, began an investigation. In parallel, Germany and Sweden initiated their investigations. In November 2022, investigators discovered evidence of the presence of explosives at the facilities, which is why the Swedish prosecutors called the explosions an act of sabotage.

However, until recently, no results were reported, and all this time the issue of the origin of the explosions caused a lot of speculation. The accusations sounded both to Moscow and Kiev .

The German prosecutor’s office dispelled doubts, which last week identified the key demarper - a citizen of Ukraine Vladimir J. (subsequently the media revealed his full name: Vladimir Zhuravlev). The last time he was seen in Poland. The speaker of the Polish prosecutor’s office Anna Adamyak confirmed that they received an international order to arrest him, but the suspect had already left the country.

Inspired by "Bondiana"

Information about the warrant issued by Germany was first published by a group of media, which jointly worked on their own, parallel official investigation. Among them are Swedish Expressen , German Zeit and Seuddeutsche Zeitung , as well as the American The Wall Street Journal . The latter shared in the article by comments of anonymous sources that allegedly participated in the undermining of the gas pipeline.

The investigation materials describe in sufficient detail the course of the entire operation: starting with the rental of the Bavarian sailboat, Andromeda, who appeared in the case from 2023 and at which the suspects reached the scene of the explosion, and ending with the white van, on which they eventually disappeared. Details about the diving company, which supplied the group with uniforms, are also published - it is also associated with Ukraine.

Investigators in Germany believe that the sailing ship sailed from Rostok (Germany) in September 2022, making stops in Denmark, Sweden and Poland, with a crew of six, including five men and one woman. During this voyage, its participants, apparently, were immersed in the Baltic Sea and attached explosives to the “Northern Stream” pipelines - which led to the detonation and damage of both lines.

The unidentified investigation remains only how the authorities of Ukraine are directly involved in the case. There are several main versions: either a group of demolitioners acted completely independently or with the silent consent of Kyiv, or with its support.

Although, apparently, politicians remain , still considering a possible version of provocation on the part of Russia.

According to the assumption of the media that investigated the case, the undermining was arranged by an independent group of Ukrainians, consisting of civilian and military persons. The plan was also developed without the active participation of the Ukrainian government, says WSJ. The operation was financed by the participants themselves. Among other things, WSJ anonymously quotes one of the officers of the Ukrainian army, allegedly involved in the blow: “I always laugh when I hear the next speculation about some large operation. The whole thing began with the night booze and iron determination of several people to risk their lives for the country. ”

This version coincides with the informationpublished back in 2023 in The New York Times. According to their report, intelligence, examined by US officials, indicate that the group organized sabotage is loyal to Ukraine, but acts regardless of Kyiv.

In a commentary for Novo-Europe, the analyst of the Stockholm Center of Eastern European studies Dr. Andreas Minland is also inclined to the same version:

“It is possible that these were just people who revised the films about James Bond.”

At the same time, the media is believed , the Ukrainian government in the faces of Valery Zaluzhny, then the Commander -in -Chief of Ukraine, and now the ambassador in the UK, and Vladimir Zelensky, was in the course of the operation and gave the good, and Zaluzhny actively supported the idea.

This partly corresponds to the version that Washington, who learned about the operation in advance, tried to convince Kiev to abandon plans to undermine. In 2023, three US officials informed CNN that the CIA received intelligence from the European ally about the planning attack on pipelines three months before the blow was struck. Presumably after that Zelensky abandoned the operation, but the Sulgoye allegedly went against the decision of Kiev.

Zero damage with great risks

After the publication of the investigation, Vladimir Zelensky and his administration rejected all the charges: the president himself said that such operations could not be carried out without his knowledge, but he did not give such orders. Valery Zaluguzhny also denies any involvement, and the former deputy head of the SBU Viktor Yagun said that the version of the participation of the toilet does not correspond to the realities of the government system in the Ukrainian army.

The fact that official Kyiv could not be directly related to the actions of saboteurs, says the situation with the supply of Russian gas to Europe as a whole.

No fuel in the “northern streams” by that time was no longer in the EU, and the chances of resuming supplies were small. It is not clear why Kyiv needed to organize a complex operation of undermining gas pipelines, which were no longer used.

“Economic damage from all this operation was almost zero,” Minland explains in a commentary for Novo-Europe.

Sabotage almost did not affect one of the Nord Stream-2 lines, and gas supplies could continue on it. But Germany froze the process of certification of all Northern Stream-2 lines on February 22, 2022 in response to the recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR by Russia. The Kremlin has repeatedly hinted that if Berlin desired, gas supply to Europe on this intact branch could be launched “in a week”. But Germany is not going to refuse its decision to freeze.

Moreover, the sabotage of Ukrainian patriots with Andromeda did not affect the supply of gas in the moment. In September 2022, Gazprom himself completely blocked the supply of gas to Europe - before the expiration of contracts. The company explained this by technical problems with turbines, but probably it was just one of the Kremlin’s attempts to rock the consolidated position of the EU countries in Ukraine, raising gas prices for the end consumer in anticipation of the heating season.

The completion of the repair that Siemens was engaged in and the elimination of problems, according to Gazprom, interfered with international sanctions, although Siemens refuted this. As a result, gas supply was never restored, and European corporations demanded compensation. Blot, in turn, gave Gazprom a convenient reason to refer to “external factors” and use insurance to avoid payments in claims.

At the same time, according to the documents of NATO, the undermining of gas pipelines passing through the territory of the member countries of the Alliance is an attack on critical infrastructure, which should put into effect the mechanisms of collective defense. Why do Kyiv take on such risks and put the assistance to him by the Allies in a difficult situation - is also not obvious.

Argument to radicals

Almost simultaneously with information about suspects in the demolition in the media, news appeared that Germany was freezing military assistance to Ukraine. And although it became known about this on August 5, before the publication of information about the Ukrainian trace, and this is not about the decision to stop help, but about the previously adopted budget, which is not enough for new projects, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry hastened to make a special statement. The agency called an attempt to connect this with the news about the "northern stream" with a provocation and explained that nothing went beyond in the relations of the countries.

They gave comments and German officials.

Finance Minister Christian Lindner explicitly stated that he should not be expected in the future to be expanding military assistance to Ukraine in the future. Representatives of the chancellor emphasized that the investigation and its results will not change the fact that Russia is conducting an international law that violates the war against Ukraine.

But the accusation of a citizen of Ukraine in the blow of flows made it possible to political forces in the opposition to the official German government, to demand a stop of cooperation between Berlin and Kiev and a reduction in military support.

Sarah Wagenknecht, the founder of the recently created left -wing “Saray Wagenknecht alliance”, is more active in all the situation, competing both with traditional German left -wing parties and the ultra -right “alternative to Germany” (AFD). In particular, Wagenknecht has already managed to demand the convening of the investigation committee - however, the involvement of not Ukraine, but the German government itself. She suspects the current government of complicity with sabotage - and believes that this can become a "scandal of the century." In addition, in accordance with its traditionally pro -Russian position, Wagenknecht demanded the complete cessation of military supplies to Ukraine. “If Ukraine is involved in the sabotage of the Northern Stream, the ruling coalition should draw conclusions and immediately stop its support,” she wrote on her twitter account .

The "alternative to Germany" tried to take the initiative. Several party deputies have already made statements about the lack of trust in the current government and the requirements of greater openness. Thus, AFD member of AFD, defending the rights of Russian Germans , said that the federal government was too “evasive” and secretly in the discussion of Ukrainian involvement, and demanded additional transparency measures. And the speaker for international affairs from the AFD parliamentary Group Matias Moosdorf even wished Zelensky and Salla to personally appear before German investigators.

At the same time, the ruling coalition and personally Chancellor Olaf Sholts, on the contrary, demonstrate a restrained attitude to the information received. Konstantin von Notz, a deputy from the Green Coalition, noted that promotion in the investigation is good, and it should push the government to the speedy adoption of the bill and a more stringent regulation of the protection and safety of infrastructure, key to society, economics and the environment. Representatives of other coalition parties simply announced the adherence to the support of Ukraine.

As Andreas Minland noted in his commentary,

Traditional German political forces occupying a pro -Ukrainian position are now positioning a story with a detachment and attempts to inflate a scandal around it as a “dummy” - and most likely they will continue to adhere to the same strategy.

Therefore, probably the published results of the investigation will not affect the relationship of Kyiv with Berlin and with the leadership of the EU as a whole. However, different Prochrevsky forces both in Germany and at the level of the entire European Union will continue to actively use the investigation in order to earn political glasses, having received an additional argument in favor of stopping the financial and military support of Ukraine.