The Kremlin is struggling to decide how best to spin Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s arrest, but it’s sure of one thing — Europe is to blame

Telegram founder Pavel Durov was arrested on August 24 after his plane landed in Paris. According to French media reports, Durov likely faces charges for a range of offenses related to his failure to moderate illegal activities on the platform, although so far, French prosecutors have only stated that he is being questioned. While many Russian politicians and elites were swift to denounce Durov’s arrest, the reasons they gave were notably inconsistent. Meduza special correspondent Andrey Pertsev spoke with Kremlin insiders, officials, and a state-media employee to find out how the Kremlin might spin Durov’s arrest and why it’s taking so long to establish a consistent narrative.

The Kremlin’s political team still hasn’t decided how to respond to Pavel Durov’s recent arrest in Paris. On August 26, French police announced that the Telegram founder is being investigated for “failing to act against financial and cybercrimes committed through the platform.” However, without further details on the charges Durov could be facing, the “real reasons” behind the arrest remain unclear to Russian elites. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied rumors of a meeting between Durov and Vladimir Putin in Baku, Azerbaijan, where both were last week, and emphasized the need to “wait for some clarity on the situation.”

Two sources close to the Kremlin told Meduza that Russian officials, businessmen, and political strategists currently have three main theories on Durov’s arrest:

It might be U.S. pressure, [since they] need Telegram in the context of the elections — after all, Durov has gotten closer to the Republicans, which doesn’t sit well with the Democrats. Or it’s France's objections due to Durov’s contacts with Azerbaijan. Or it could be Durov’s own maneuvering.

The sources were hesitant to speculate on which, if any, of these theories might be true. One noted that Durov’s arrest has already raised concerns about the security of the messaging app. “Could Durov hand something over to the West? Sure, he could. He’s not unbreakable. When we pressured him over VKontakte, he gave it up pretty quickly,” the Kremlin insider said.

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Due to these concerns, some Russian officials and security personnel have already been advised to delete sensitive communications from Telegram, according to the Telegram channel Baza. Margarita Simonyan, a Russian propagandist and the editor-in-chief of RT, doled out similar advice.

According to a former federal official, however, “Telegram hasn’t been used at high levels for secure or highly confidential communication for a long time.” Nevertheless, two political strategists working with regional authorities and two regional officials said that they continue to use Telegram, including for communication with members of Putin’s administration and presidential plenipotentiary representatives.

“Of course, important official documents aren’t sent via Telegram,” clarified one regional official. “But preliminary discussions of election campaigns and strategy planning — yes, those happen. Now, they'll probably be sent less frequently. But in the meantime, everyone is still using it.”

A political strategist close to Putin’s administration, who manages media campaigns on Telegram, believes that Pavel Durov’s arrest could primarily impact pro-government Telegram channels:

Secret chats still seem to be secure, but there are concerns about the channels — there’s a possibility that admins and ultimate beneficiaries could be identified. It’s no coincidence that [the anonymous Telegram channel] Brief [which Russia designated as a ‘foreign agent’] deleted its entire archive and changed its name — this happened after Durov’s arrest. The market for [information campaigns] is also at risk if clients can be identified.

This source, along with a Kremlin insider and a regional official, noted that their “attitude towards the messenger is already shifting.” The political strategist compared Durov’s situation to that of convicted arms dealer Viktor Bout, who returned to Russia after being swapped for U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner in a prisoner exchange in December 2022 after spending 12 years in a U.S. prison.

“On the surface, it seems straightforward: he served time for his country, he’s a patriot, and so on,” the strategist explained. “He was given a chance to enter public politics, but things haven’t really progressed.” While people may respect Bout, the source continued, they’re “not ready to include him in places where there’s significant influence and money.” “Who knows what he might have said while he was in prison? The same will likely happen with Durov,” the source speculated.

Since the Kremlin has yet to decide on its stance regarding Durov’s arrest, state and Kremlin-loyal media outlets haven’t received comprehensive guidelines on how to cover the situation. “Everyone knows [to follow] the narrative that Europe is clamping down on free speech. But when it comes to Durov himself, there’s no clear stance,” said one state media employee.

This lack of clarity explains the varied tone in statements about Pavel Durov. For example, Margarita Simonyan and Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev have said that the Telegram founder’s refusal to cooperate with Russian authorities led to his “serious problems.” Meanwhile, the New People party is organizing demonstrations in support of Durov and urging France to release him.

A state media employee who spoke with Meduza believes that a more unified and clear response from the authorities will emerge over time. “Maybe we’ll get more clarity once Durov is formally charged with something, and he makes a statement,” the employee said.

Reporting by Andrey Pertsev