A tipping point

As Ukrainian defenses falter under simultaneous Russian attacks, the Kursk offensive risks plunging Ukraine into a strategic crisis

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of August 30, 2024

Russian forces are pressing on with their offensive in southern Donbas. Outnumbered and facing simultaneous attacks on multiple fronts, Ukrainian defenses are struggling to hold their ground. The Russian group which had been advancing from Avdiivka toward Pokrovsk unexpectedly launched a major attack southward, toward the city of Selydove. This maneuver created a crisis in Ukraine’s defenses further east, around Karlivka, which fell to Russian control by August 30. Additionally, Russian troops have intensified their offensive from Marinka and Krasnohorivka toward Kurakhove, a key logistics hub for Ukraine in southern Donbas, and are also advancing in the area between Vuhledar and Kurakhove.

Despite this escalating crisis, which could have severe strategic consequences for Ukraine, the Ukrainian command continues to deploy reserves to its Kursk operation in Russia. There, Ukrainian troops have managed to advance a few more kilometers north and west of Sudzha.

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Russia

The Kursk region

The pace of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ (AFU) offensive has slowed. Attacks by mobile armored groups are no longer proving effective — after Russian reserves were moved to the Kursk region, the front has become more fortified, and Ukrainian armored vehicles are being taken out by drone strikes, anti-tank missiles, and artillery. This has prevented Ukrainian troops from breaking through between Russian strongholds. As a result, the AFU have had to shift to infantry assault tactics, supported by artillery, drones, and tanks. This change mirrors the adjustments seen during Ukraine’s offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region in 2023 and Russia’s offensive near Avdiivka in the winter of 2024.

Despite these challenges, the AFU have achieved some tactical successes. They captured the village of Martynovka near the Sudzha–Kursk highway and are now attempting to push further north, both to the west (near Nechaev and Nizhnyaya Parovaya) and to the east (near Pushkarnoe) of this road, with the ultimate goal of reaching the district center of Bolshoe Soldatskoe.

Simultaneously, Ukrainian forces are trying to dislodge increasingly stronger Russian defenses from the Sudzha–Lgov highway. It’s still unclear whether Ukrainian troops have managed to capture Malaya Loknya, which lies along this road, where their advance was halted in early August. Attempts to break through to the road from both the east and west haven’t been successful.

The AFU were also unable to capture the district center of Korenevo. Their attempt to break through northward via the neighboring village of Olgovka was halted, and they even lost part of Olgovka at the base of the attempted breakthrough. The AFU also failed to improve their position near the village of Kauchuk, where their advance stalled two weeks ago.

Ukraine’s military has seen its greatest successes south of Korenovo, where it captured the villages of Snagost, Vishnevka, and Krasnooktyabrskoe. Near the latter, Ukrainian forces reached the Seym River, effectively cutting off Korenevo from another district center, Glushkovo, which is on the opposite bank. Although the bridges in the Glushkovo area have been destroyed, Russian forces are still constructing pontoon bridges, despite Ukrainian strikes, to maintain supply lines to their troops in Glushkovo and along the Ukrainian border near Tetkino.

East of Sudzha, Russian forces have not only stopped the AFU’s advance but are also launching counterattacks, apparently aiming to push Ukrainian forces back to Sudzha and across the Psel River. Battles are ongoing for the villages of Spalnoe and Borki, where Ukrainian troops are trying to establish defensive positions.

Across the entire Kursk front, Russian aircraft are carrying out dozens of bombing raids. While Ukrainian troops were advancing with mobile groups, these airstrikes were largely ineffective, as Russian bombs are guided by satellite navigation to hit stationary targets. However, once the Ukrainian advance stalled, the number of airstrikes on both the front lines and nearby rear areas sharply increased.

Ukraine

Pokrovsk

The southward shift in the Russian offensive near Pokrovsk has caused a critical breakdown in Ukrainian defenses. Ukraine lost control of the city of Novohrodivka, which is now almost entirely in Russian hands, within days and failed to stop the Russian advance east of the city. As a result, Russian forces have breached Ukrainian defenses, reaching the cities of Selydove and Ukrainsk, cutting off supply routes to the entire Ukrainian contingent east of the area.

Troops positioned east of Selydove and Ukrainsk have begun to retreat, abandoning the strategically important village of Karlivka and all the territories along the banks of the Karlivka Reservoir with little resistance. Consequently, the front is on the verge of reaching the Ukrainsk and Selydove area from both the north and the east.

Meanwhile, Russian troops southeast of Selydove have intensified their efforts, advancing from the captured cities of Marinka and Krasnohorivka toward Kurakhove, which, along with Pokrovsk, is a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in southern and central Donbas.

It’s still unclear whether the Russian command plans to attack Pokrovsk itself while advancing toward Kurakhove, as an assault on such a large city could require considerable time and resources. For now, Russian forces are focusing on capturing the suburbs of Pokrovsk, specifically the settlement of Hrodivka and the nearby villages of Krasnyi Yar and Krutyi Yar.

Vuhledar

While the Russian advance toward Kurakhove is still in its early stages, Ukrainian forces in Vuhledar, who rely on supplies from Kurakhove, are already facing a serious crisis. They were unable to stop Russian attacks from the east; Russian forces have reached the village of Vodyane and the Pivdennodonbaska coal mine north of Vuhledar, and they’ve captured most of the village of Kostiantynivka. As a result, the main road connecting Kurakhove and Vuhledar is now under Russian control.

Now, Ukrainian forces have to rely on poorer-quality roads west of Vodyane. If the Russian army continues its westward advance, the Ukrainian command may need to reconsider the viability of holding the Vuhledar fortified area.

Toretsk

Russian forces are currently storming the city of Toretsk. The Ukrainian army was unable to stop the Russian advance on the approaches to the city, around the mines and spoil tips between it and the already captured settlements of Druzhba, Pivnichne, Pivdenne, and Zalizne.

Russian troops have also intensified their efforts east of Toretsk; they crossed the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal near Ozarianivka and are now advancing toward the canal from Andriivka as well. This means the Toretsk area could soon face attacks from both the south and east.

Kupyansk

After a brief lull, Russian troops have resumed their push toward Kupyansk in the east of Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. They’ve captured most of the village of Synkivka, where Ukrainian defenses had held out for over a year, withstanding multiple large-scale assaults and tank attacks by Russian forces.

Further south, Russian troops have pushed deep into Ukrainian defenses around Pishchane, coming within eight kilometers (five miles) of the Oskil River. Should Russian forces reach the river, Ukrainian troops on its eastern bank near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi will be cut off from the Ukrainian group operating further south in the Svatove sector.

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