About confidence in tomorrow

Leonid Gozman - about why the war will not end until Putin is in power, and what will happen next

I am confident in tomorrow. And I don't like this tomorrow!

What awaits us in the near future?

Putin will continue the war. No losses - human, economic and others - will stop him. Of course, he will carry out mobilization: fools who are ready to sign contracts end. This can be seen from daily changing price tags: more and more are paid for death, which means that there is not enough soldier. He recruits mercenaries around the world: in Nepal, on Sri Lanka, in India - still not enough. People will be unhappy with mobilization, they will give bribes to military commissariats, hide, some promotions will hold mother of conscripts, but there will be no mass protests.

He will gain the desired volume of cannon meat. The economic situation, if and when it worsens, will also not affect the war. Nothing depends on the people, so you can not pay attention to the opinion of people. If necessary, he will put the population on the cards, put on the machines of adolescents, conduct labor mobilization, but he will continue the war. War is the most important for him. Maybe (although looking at how he protects his life and health, it is difficult to believe in it), the war is even more important than life for him. And certainly more important than the well -being and lives of his subjects and the salvation of mankind from thermonuclear war.

Putin will continue the bombing of Ukraine and the destruction of its energy facilities. He hopes that Ukrainians, tired of incredible suffering, losing loved ones, suffering from the cold, will begin to demand peace and surrender from their government. He understands that there is democracy, which means that the leadership of Ukraine will not be able to ignore the position of citizens. The plan of the Third Reich was the same when the Luftwaffe bombed British cities. The Nazis did not succeed: the British did not want to give up.

So far, Putin has a failure: to shift any significant percentage of Ukrainians to support the surrender or exchange of peace in the territory, judging by the polls of public opinion,.

But Putin believes that sooner or later it will work, and will beat this point endlessly. No matter how many children died there, no matter how terrible paintings become public public, it will not stop.

The protests of the West and his own opposition to him, of course, are indifferent. Moreover, it is possible that he considers a demonstration in the West the villains committed by him beneficial for himself: they will not love anyway, so let them be afraid!

He will continue his struggle for a new order. He feels the discontent of the countries of the second and third row and tries to unite them in the confrontation with the West. And so far he succeeds. Azerbaijan and Türkiye want to in BRICS; It seems that they are trying to attract Serbia there. The point is not only in the real significance of this and other unions important to him, but in the formation of a new identity. For example, we, BRICS and who joined, are those that are against the countries of the G-7 and the rest of Europe. And for people and structures with such an identity, the conflict with Ukraine is the internal business of Putin, which suppresses the rebellion in its original territory.

With BRICS, however, not everything is smooth. BRICS is a situational union and, by definition, fragile. This is the unification of those who did not break into the main club, but dreams of it. If, for example, India is proposed to join the G7, it will immediately forget about the BRICS. In addition, the main Western unions, the EU and NATO, are not only on pragmatic interests, but also on a sense of community of fate and civilizational unity. There is no such mutual identification between the countries of the BRICS (for example, between Russia and Ethiopia or South Africa): we are extremely far from each other, the union was based only by pragmatist and confrontation is stronger.

Putin will continue the global war with the European (Christian) civilization. Actually, the war in Ukraine, the intervention in the US elections, the suppression of all living things in Russia, the support of radicals in Europe are all separate aspects of this single war. The basis of this war is not a sober calculation: Putin, probably, himself understands that the West does not threaten us with anything.

At the basis - he himself, his idea of ​​his own mission, his hatred for everything that made the West to the West:

To freedom, in which he sees only unpredictability and threat, to the independence of a person, to those who do not want to go in construction, to diversity - the inevitable consequence of freedom, to democracy, which canceled the only correct way of managing - autocracy. At the basis - his hatred of the commandments that he violates daily: all together and each separately. It is based on its irrational, although explaining it by biography and personal characteristics, hatred for the world that arose on the commandments, on the Gospels, in which those expressed two thousand years ago ideas, transforming and developing, attracting atheists and believers of other faiths, formed the basis of culture, science, political system, and all their lives. Therefore, tomorrow he will continue this war. And it will never stop in it either.

The West in response will continue its internally conflicting policy. He does not allow Putin’s military victory, but does not want the complete victory of Ukraine. Apparently, many years of positional war are satisfied with many in the West: Putin, having stoveed in Ukraine, does not represent, as they think, a direct threat to NATO and the EU countries, he wasted resources and becomes weaker (erroneous conclusion, from my point of view: it becomes stronger and more dangerous). In addition, the actions of the West in the Russian direction are restrained by fear. The West is afraid of two things. Firstly, the fact that Putin will still use nuclear weapons (which, in my opinion, is facilitated by the policy of the West). And secondly, the West is afraid of the decay of Russia as a probable consequence of the defeat or displacement of Putin, and hence the war on its territory, which can develop into a nuclear one. This means that Ukraine’s help will continue to be dosed and accompanied by strange conditions for a warring country, such as restricting the permitted goals.

Unfortunately, neither in Russia nor in the West I do not see anything that would refute this non -brief forecast. No matter how sad it is, tomorrow today's nightmare will continue. And in general, while Putin is in power, it will only be worse. We must play for a long time and not count on a wonderful deliverance right tomorrow. Therefore, do not allow you to deceive yourself either with conversations about the refrigerator, or hopes for conditional Mongolia. Behind such infantile hopes in the inevitable and quick disappointment follows - did you have little disappointment? Each disappointment makes us weaker, but we need strength so much.

You should not count in October that spring will begin from next week. Let's look real - it will definitely come, but only after we survive the winter.

And now I have good news with the topic of this inevitable spring: I am sure not only in tomorrow, but in the afternoon!

And the day after tomorrow (unless, of course, humanity lives until the day after tomorrow, without perishing in the thermonuclear war) This regime will collapse. How exactly, I can only guess. The impetus can be biology (I do not believe in any projects of immortality, no matter how much money is stolen for them), the unexpected success of the Armed Forces (and the war is always unpredictable) with the subsequent political destabilization in Russia, and much more. But the reason for the inevitability of collapse is that this regime contradicts not only the laws of divine and human, but also common sense.

He is extremely artificial and irrational, he is unprofitable for the majority of the population, he puts forward the most stupid and dishonest, and overlaps oxygen talented and efficient, he crosses out all the historical achievements of our country: the times of the USSR and the time of the empire, he drives it into archaic and deprives the future. Yes, such modes were met. Hitlerovsky - but he was defeated. Bolshevik - but its economic, human and political resources many times exceeded the resources of this regime. Putin’s personalist system has no three generations ahead.

When I discussed this topic with one intelligent person and said that it was inevitable, they say, everything will be covered with a copper basin, he replied that yes, he would be covered, but what would remain under the basin? This is the most important question; I have something to say, but this is for another time.