After increasing the size of the army to 1.5 million people, the cost of its maintenance will double

Maintaining an army of 1.5 million would cost more than 3 trillion rubles annually, roughly double pre-war military spending, according to a report by Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. A decree increasing the size of the army from 1.3 to 1.5 million people was signed by Vladimir Putin on Monday.

Details. Spending on Russian military personnel amid the war in Ukraine is higher than ever before, the report says. If previously Russian contract soldiers received an average of about 300-400 thousand rubles a year, now, taking into account all payments, they can count on an income of up to 10 million rubles in three years, the report says.

• After increasing the size of the army to 1.5 million people, almost half - 695 thousand - will be contract soldiers, said Sergei Shoigu, who was then Minister of Defense, in December 2023. If the current model of payments to contract soldiers is maintained, according to Massikot’s calculations, the basic annual cost of military salaries will be 2-2.5 trillion rubles.
• Taking into account other costs - housing, training, benefits - maintaining such an army would cost more than 3 trillion rubles a year, the report says.
• Maintaining the current level of salaries for a long time may force the Ministry of Defense to begin reducing other expenses - for exercises, purchases of equipment or ammunition, Massikot believes.
• The recruitment of new military personnel into the army will also increase tension on the labor market, the study says.
• Increasing the size of the army would not only be expensive in terms of salaries and benefits, but would actually require doubling Russia's existing military infrastructure, the report says. Each new division will require the construction of at least five four-story barracks, five to ten residential buildings for military families, as well as schools and other infrastructure, Massicot writes, citing estimates by Russian military analysts. The associated costs could be prohibitive for an overstretched defense budget, the report says.
• The size of the army established by Putin makes sense only in wartime conditions, Massikot wrote on social network X after the publication of Putin’s decree. In her opinion, after the end of the war in Ukraine, the scenario of maintaining such a large professional army looks unlikely. A return to the late-Soviet system of mixed readiness, which existed in the first post-Soviet decade, seems more likely, Massicot believes. Such a scheme would involve an active army of 1 million people, along with a vast reserve of personnel and equipment that could be mobilized if necessary, the report says.
• The actual size of the army may not reach 1.5 million people if this requires paying a price that the Kremlin is not willing to pay, such as declaring a new mobilization, Massicot wrote in X.

Context. Russia's total defense spending, against the background of increasing costs for payments to the military and restoration of equipment in 2024-2026, could reach 13 billion rubles per year and exceed 7% of GDP, the report says. This level of defense spending has not been seen since the late USSR, Massicot notes.

• Putin has increased the size of his army for the third time since the start of the war. Before that, he increased the size of the army in August 2022 (from 1 million to 1.15 million people) and in December 2023 (to 1.3 million).