Announcement of the apocalypse

Leonid Gozman about why Putin can use nuclear weapons

From the moment the Soviet Union has reached nuclear parity with the United States, nuclear weapons were considered as a deterrent. The inevitable and guaranteed mutual destruction made its practical use impossible, with the exception of use literally on the last day of human history. The governments of different countries were worried about random launches, the dangers of testing nuclear weapons (therefore they were eventually banned), about its fellow terrorists. But everyone understood that the head of state in their right mind could neither apply him or seriously threaten them.

But now, at the end of the first quarter of the twenty -first century, Vladimir Putin announces a new nuclear doctrine. Judging by him, Russia now considers itself the right to use nuclear weapons in fact at any time when it wants; This is provided by vague and giving the opportunity for a wide variety of interpretations of the formulation of announced innovations. In any case, in Ukraine you can hit: she attacked us and did it with the help of nuclear powers.

The reaction of the world is surprisingly calm. Neither the Extraordinary Summit of NATO, nor bringing (publicly) to the combat readiness of everything that is possible.

This is partly due to the fact that the nuclear doctrine is a completely meaningless document. You can, in agreement with partners, take on the obligations verified. Do not conduct tests, for example, limit power, or do not produce such warheads, and so on. These obligations are always accompanied by the control mechanism: not the topic to believe the word. But to say that in such cases is applicable, but in such and such-no, chatter.

The bomb (with a capital letter!) Even if it does not lead to the immediate death of mankind, it will turn the page of history, it will be the very force majeure that cancels all obligations. Therefore, it is not so important that this doctrine is written. The USSR said that he would never hit the first. He would be poured on his tail if he hit? Now Putin says that he will hit when he wants. Official paper, most likely, has nothing to do with his real intentions and capabilities, as well as any written documents: he is sovereign so that he can’t look back at any restrictions. Rather, this is the next blackmail of the West, stated right now in order to complicate Zelensky with his negotiations on permission to beat Western weapons in Russia.

But the spoken words - not to the doctrine - must be taken seriously. They say that Putin is nervous, feels uncertain and thinks about mixing the figures on the board. Act is always preceded by words. First, “Jew”, “Hach” or “Dag” - only then the pogrom. Here on our television, the word “crest” is already used everywhere: this means that the authorities form the installation on pogroms and discrimination of ethnic Ukrainians.

And since Putin says what he says about the bomb, then he prepares us and himself for its use. From “this is impossible” we go to “when and where”.

His internal readiness also speak of the numerous performances of his Kholuyev: clowns on TV, various experts and other public, who unanimously speak of the beneficiality and even humanity of the use of a bomb, not only in Ukraine, but in general. These experts feel the mood of the authorities and give out only what will be approved or, I am afraid, already approved.

So will he throw a bomb?

I suppose maybe. He obviously does not have that moral barrier before the use of nuclear weapons, the understanding that this is a step towards the destruction of the planet that Khrushchev and Brezhnev had. Putin has already done a lot of things that seemed impossible for a more or less civilized person. How many Ukrainians will die, he certainly does not care, how many of them and his own soldiers will die later from radiation illness - too.

Moreover, he can not only, but also “forced” (that is, he thinks he is forced). Firstly, not as it should, there is a war. Yes, we are moving, but very slowly. The war lasts longer than the blockade of Leningrad. And with manpower the problem. Fools who are ready to sign a contract end - this is evident from constantly growing price tags on invitations to admit the army; And it is scary to declare mobilization. Secondly, Ukrainians had to surrender for a long time, and they continue to fight and apply very sensitive blows. Thirdly, the population is tired of the war, there is no enthusiasm at all. So, it would be nice to finish it as soon as possible. Victory, of course. The Japanese after the bomb immediately surrendered. Maybe Ukrainians will give up?

In addition, a bomb is also needed to strengthen your prestige inside the elites: it is necessary to compensate for the shame of Kursk.

The leader of the mafia, when respect for him is shaken, must do something very terrible-then everyone will understand that he is still valid. A bomb is just terrible and is.

It is unclear, really, does he have nuclear weapons? We have a lot about what they say that it is, and then it turns out that it is not. It was in the USSR; It seems that this is generally a property of dictatorships. It is difficult for me to believe that if everywhere there is a mess and everything that is not pinned is stolen, then in the notorious nuclear triad order. People believed for a long time that yes, everywhere chaos, but everything is fine in the army: here are the parades that cool! True, the “Armata” was stuck precisely at the parade and they didn’t see her anymore ... But not parades, of course, and the war showed that the Bardak and embezzlement are no less than in any other field. So, now we believe in what no one has seen: in the nuclear triad? Or with her, everything is the same as with an “armata” and an increase in the standard of living?

I think Putin himself also does not know if he has nuclear weapons. He did not know that the border in Kursk was driving that the army was not ready for war, that the air defense misses blows. And they are afraid to report and, most importantly, he does not want to hear anything bad. Therefore, it is not known what is there?

But, let's say there is. And even in combat readiness. Many expect that Putin will not apply it for a completely human reason: it is afraid. We see how he cares about his health and safety. And since he wants to live, he will not put his life at risk. And nuclear weapons will remain in warehouses, everything will be limited to rhetoric.

I would like to believe it. But there is a nuance! The use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine does not mean an automatic end of the world. It will be a local disaster, but there will be no nuclear winter or tens of millions of victims immediately. And what will happen? Of course, it can, as many suggest, follow the strict reaction of the West: blows to the launch mines and other objects fundamental for world war, hunting for those who gave the order, and so on.

But the West, never promised anything like this - some of us were attributed to him. It has never been said: if you use nuclear weapons, then we will destroy it all, and we will get you.

On the contrary, Macron and Scholz now, the day after Putin allowed himself everything, is called to caution in statements so as not to provoke the escalation! And Putin has reason to believe that the Western reaction will again be limited to words. Moreover, someone close to the first persons of Western countries or these first persons themselves may consider that since he is so frostbitten, then he needs to give him Ukraine. This is not forever, he is not eternal, and after him, as always after the departure of the tyrant, someone more sane will appear. You just have to wait. Maybe this is Putin’s victory?

The result of Putin’s war with the West is determined not only by economic and military potential: it is determined by the power of the spirit. If the West does not say clearly and convincingly that protecting himself, including defending himself in Ukraine, he will go to everything if he is not ready to really go to anything, if he does not return to the fact that Churchill personifies himself during the Second World War, then Putin will win in Ukraine. And then there will be other countries. At first, completely nearby, once entered the empire; Where he, being objectively weaker, will win anyway. And then the distant ones. And still ends with a thermonuclear war. Or will the West still wake up?