The fall of Ugro

The strategic defense unit has passed under the control of the Russian army. What should you expect now?

More than two -year siege of Ugledar ended with the capture of the city by Russian troops. The New Gazeta Europe tells how this will affect the war and which cities can be captured by the following?

Flags above the city

Russian troops entered the center of Ugledar, where an important fortified APU is located. This was told by the head of the military administration of the Donetsk region Vadim Filashkin. Before the war, about 15 thousand people lived in the city.

The video that appeared in Russian telegram channels shows how the military armies of the Russian Federation calmly walk along the streets and install tricolors and red flags on buildings in different parts of Ugled. On the map of the Ukrainian OSINT project of the DEPSTATE, Ugledar is designated as occupied by Russian troops. Information about the capture of the city has not yet confirmed either the Armed Forces or the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

The battles for Ugledar continued almost from the very beginning of a full -scale invasion. Since 2022, he was protected by the 72nd mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The city is of important strategic importance, since it is at heights at the junction of two fronts - East in the Donetsk region and South in Zaporizhzhya.

Since 2022, Russia sent its units for the assault on the settlement. Fighters of the elite 155th Marine Brigade tried to take it, for example. According to media reports , this formation was almost completely destroyed during the fighting, having lost a huge number of equipment in the frontal assaults.

“For more than two years, the Ukrainian side managed to build a reliable defense in Ugledar,” says the Israeli Military Expert David Sharp.

- The Armed Forces of Ukraine had enough resources for this. Whereas the Russians either could not create a significant quantitative and qualitative advantage on this site, or illiterate bulk were held, in which, under the zero result, they lost a lot of manpower and technology. ”

Military expert, Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reserve, Roman Svitan notes that Ugledar was built on a hill that gave Ukrainians to visually control and put fire on the territory of tens of kilometers around.

David Sharp says that Ugledar is a very small town in area. In fact, it is a plot of land built up with high -rise buildings. Now most of these houses are either destroyed or very significantly damaged. It is extremely difficult to defend in such conditions. After the Russians covered the settlement from different sides, the situation became hopeless and the defenders had to retreat in order not to get into the environment. David Sharp believes that the APU command to reduce losses had to declare a departure a few days earlier.

“Until the autumn offensive of 2024, the Russians tried to attack Ugledar directly in the forehead, which was extremely ineffective and led to big losses,” Military researcher Kirill Mikhailov tells New-Europe. - Considering that Ukrainian reserves are now involved in other sections of the front, the army of the Russian Federation managed to create a powerful offensive group in the Ugro direction. The Russians used the tactics of sunset from the flanks, which pose a threat to the supply lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In fact, in the last days of the defenders of the city with the rest of the Ukrainian units, only one road shot by the enemy connected. Supply and logistics under such conditions are fraught with great risk. By this, the situation resembles the defense of Bakhmut, who also almost fell into a complete environment. Then many Western analysts criticized the command of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces for the fact that the order to divert the defended units was not given earlier. ”

According to information from Ukrainian sources on social networks, seriously wounded APU fighters remained in Ugledar, who were not able to evacuate colleagues. These people are likely to be in Russian captivity and now they will have to be exchanged from there.

Command errors

According to David Sharp, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were at risk of environment after the Russians went away from the flanks. It is likely that this became possible thanks to the mistakes of the Ukrainian command. The Russians were able to realize a significant advantage in the number of soldiers and equipment.

“In Ugledar, a sad but predicted situation has developed for Ukrainian defenders,” Roman Svitan explains New Evrop. - It should be noted that the rearguard units covering the withdrawal of the main forces still control a small part of the city. After the Russians made a deep coverage of the village, a decision was made about the controlled withdrawal of the defending units from there. This event has several reasons. Firstly, due to errors of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces in this area, it is short of arms. This is especially true for anti -personnel mortar mines and cassette ammunition. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine could not predict the situation and professionally build a system of supply of ammunition. Secondly, parts collected from poorly trained and poorly motivated mobilized were aimed at covering the flanks of Ugro. They could not restrain the attacks of the Russians and failed the front. ”

On September 29, it became known that the commander of the 72nd brigade named after the Black Cossacks Ivan Vinnik was removed from his post.

Cities under threat

“An important symbol has been lost for Ukraine,” continues David Sharp. - However, I cannot yet call the capture of Ugled the operational success of the Russian armed forces. It is important that the fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who defended Ugledar, managed to get out of the environment. There is information that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have prepared powerful defensive positions north of Ugled. Now they should be filled with a sufficient number of personnel. If the army of the Russian Federation manages to stop at these lines, then the loss of the ruins of the city will not become fatal for the situation at the front. However, it is necessary to take into account the advance of the Russian troops from the south towards the city of Kurakhovo. The same settlement is also attacked from the eastern side. The Russians have serious potential for promotion. Kurakhovo, along with Pokrovsky, is an important node of Ukrainian defense, much more significant than it was Ugro. ”

Kirill Mikhailov believes that the loss of Ugled will not lead to serious changes at the front. After all, new defensive lines are built northwest of the city. The strategic significance of Ugledar was that from this settlement, Ukrainians fired a railway branch from the receiver, according to which the compositions could be directed towards the Zaporizhzhya region and further along the occupied territories. If the Russians abandon the Armed Forces and further, logistics in the so -called "land corridor" on the Crimea will be in relative safety. And this finally levels the significance of the Crimean bridge as the transport artery used to supply the Southern Front in the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions.

“Ugledar was important in that it was a bridgehead from which the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could fire at the Volnovakh railway fork and a branch coming from it,

- Roman Svitan confirms this information. - Now the land corridor in Zaporozhye and further to the Kherson region and Crimea can only be reached with expensive and few Himars installation shells and missiles. Therefore, the loss of Ugro is a serious defeat for the Ukrainian side. ”

Other directions that are difficult for the Armed Forces, according to Kirill Mikhailov, are today the Toretsky site, in which the Russians practically took possession of the village of New York, as well as the city of the watch, for which bloody battles are still underway. The front line at Pokrovsk, where the Russians managed to practically reach the outskirts of neighboring Mirnograd, looks like for the Ukrainian side. The extremely dangerous situation at the town of Selidovo, which the Russians could not take with the help of frontal assaults and are now trying to get around on both sides. For the successful capture of these settlements of the army of the Russian Federation, apparently, the already proven tactics of flank coverage will have to be used.

Roman Svitan is sure that Pokrovsk will withstand any frontal advance of the enemy. However, Russians can try to take the city into the boiler and cut off communications with other Ukrainian formations. This year, the expert considers such a development of events unlikely.

According to Roman Svitan, the Ukrainian military will now retreat along the road track a few kilometers west of Ugled to the line located at the heights of the village of Epiphany, where defensive positions are already being prepared. Previously, a single section of the front was a bunch of cities of Ugledar -Khkhokhovo. Our interlocutor believes that in the coming month the Russians will continue pressure on Kurakhovo, bypass him from the flanks, cut the supply and, if there are reserves, will be able to squeeze out the defending garrison from there.

Dependence on the weather and the USA

“According to the actions of the Russians, it is clear that after an active summer offensive campaign they are exhaled,” says Roman Svitan. - The army of the Russian Federation does not have enough reserves for attacks in all directions. At the same time, Moscow is trying to use the last dry days to further advance, so that before the autumn-winter period, when the fighting will become difficult to improve its position. For this, the Russians will try to align the front from Pokrovsk to the south. Otherwise, the APU with the help of artillery over the winter will eliminate the enemy’s wedding in their position. As soon as shed rains begin, the technique will be able to move only along roads that have long been mined and shot by Ukrainian guns. Russians today hope to freeze hostilities in the foreseeable future. She needs this pause in order to prepare for the spring-summer campaign next year. ”

The thaw, which should be expected in the next month, according to Kirill Mikhailov, will reduce the pace of the Russian offensive. After all, fighting in the offseason is much more difficult than in dry weather. The army of the Russian Federation can wait for serious problems related to violation of the supply lines. The technique will be stuck in wet soil. And the Armed Forces of Ukraine and so very actively use drones for transport attacks, bringing ammunition, food and other necessary goods.

“Rainy weather can complicate active fighting outside the settlements,” adds David Sharp. - There will be an operational pause that allows both sides to lick the wounds, regroup and tighten the reserves. However, in the case of using the tactics of assaults in small foot groups, the weather does not solve anything. Therefore, Russia can continue its attacks even with abundant precipitation. ”

According to David Sharp, the most anticipated event is currently the election of the US president. It is on the next head of the United States that the intensity of the support of Ukraine will depend, and hence the course of hostilities.

“The Ukrainian authorities are trying to establish the regular replenishment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by mobilized, which they so far succeed with varying success,

- remarks Kirill Mikhailov. - After all, it is problematic to prepare fighters in extremely compressed lines. In Ukraine, the training of fresh forces is considered insufficient for eight weeks. Whereas in the army of the Russian Federation a few days are sometimes allocated for this. We are observing the transfer of UAV operators to the Russian assault infantry or personnel from other branches of troops, for example, from the fleet. From this we can conclude that Russia lacks manpan to develop tactical victory before the operational success and the organization of a major breakthrough of the enemy’s defense. In general, it is possible to predict the continuation of the war for exhaustion with the slow attack of Russia. ”