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Climate change can kill a billion people
Dozens of "vital indicators" of the Earth have reached critical meanings. Overpopulation, extreme heat, war, record emissions of greenhouse gases - all this can lead to a real climate disaster. This proves a new study under which more than 15 thousand scientists from all over the world signed . They believe that “the future of mankind hangs in the balance”, if you urgently do not start correcting the situation. Due to global warming, more and more territories will become unsafe for existence, and humanity will plunge into new wars and mass migration. To fix this, you will have to radically change our lives: to abandon the usual methods for generating electricity and heat, as well as to give birth much less. "Cold" tells the details of the new climatic research.
The "vital indicators" of the Earth have reached a critical mark. The planet needs to reduce the population and abandon the use of oil and gas
Every year, scientists observe the 35 basic indicators of the life of the Earth. By 2024, at least 25 of them reached record or critical levels. Among them: mortality due to heat, overcoming coal and oil, a high level of greenhouse gas emissions and an increase in the level of acidity of the oceans. Scientists warn: all this indicates the approach to the "critical and unpredictable new phase of the climatic crisis."
“We are already in the epicenter of a sharp change in climate, which jeopardizes life on Earth, like nothing, that people have seen before,” said one of the research leaders, professor at Oregon University William Ripple.
Scientists consider excessive consumption of oil, gas and coal to the main reason for global warming. Fossible fuel is necessary for energy, but its use is the main source of carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) - the main greenhouse gas, which accelerates climatic changes on the planet.
In second place in the level of threats to climate among gases is methane . This gas is used for heating, electricity production and as fuel for motors. Unlike carbon dioxide, methane is quickly destroyed in the atmosphere. The main sources of methane pollution are the extraction and transportation of coal, gas and oil.
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Another source of methane pollution is livestock . The volumes of emissions from one cow amount to almost 100 kilograms of methane per year - this is half the emissions of an ordinary car. For agriculture, as a whole, there are about 12% of the emissions of all greenhouse gases. In addition to methane, this area also throws into the atmosphere a huge amount of nitrogen oxide (N2O).
This greenhouse gas is formed in the process of decomposition of manure and fertilizers. Nitrogen oxide is about 273 times more dangerous for the atmosphere than CO2, besides, it remains in it much longer - an average of 100 years. Over the past 130 years, nitrogen oxide emissions associated with cattle increased by 350%. If you reduce the damage from methane and nitrogen oxide, this will give a fairly quick result and will slow down the pace of global warming.
About 90% of all emissions of CO2 falls on industrial processes and fuel combustion, of which coal is considered the most “dirty” - about 37% account for emissions of CO2. In second place is oil - almost 29%, the third place in gas - about 19% of CO2 emissions falls on it.
Scientists note that climate change is a symptom of a deep systemic resource overrun problem. Humanity propagates and consumes more than the Earth can give. The situation of overspending cannot last endlessly and as a result will lead to harsh cataclysms and hundreds of thousands of additional deaths in the next 25 years.
Record behind the record
In recent years, global climate change has become more often in the news due to temperature records. 2023 was recognized as the warmest year in the 170-year history of observations. The average surface temperature was 1.45 degrees Celsius above the pre -industrial period. The current year also managed to set a record: the summer of 2024 became the hottest in 84 years of observation, and according to some reports for 2000 years.
Scientists specifically compare today's temperatures with indicators of the XIX century - the period to the active development of industry. This helps researchers determine how much human activity and technology development influenced climate change.
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However, the current dynamics of global temperatures question the plans of mankind to slow down the climate change: to achieve this goal, the average world temperature should not exceed the mark of two (and preferably even 1.5) degrees in comparison with the pre -industrial era. In August 2024, the temperature indicators already exceeded this threshold. None of the countries participating in the “Big Twenty”complies with their climatic obligations enshrined in the agreement. Some climatic experts in principle doubt that they can be observed, which is why in the coming years they expect much more extreme temperatures.
The world ocean, the main absorber CO2 around the world, also heats up with an unprecedented pace. Water covers more than 70% of the Earth’s surface and absorbs 90% heat from emissions. The increase in temperatures turns the world ocean into the main victim of climate change, as a result of which every year its ability to absorb CO2 decreases . In 2024, the global temperature of the water surface reached 21.06 degrees Celsius, overtaking a pre -industrial temperature by one degree.
One of the key risks is associated with coral reefs - it is they who protect the coastal line from storms and floods, form entire ecosystems and serve as a safe shelter for many fish, which ensure half a million people. Corals are also used as raw materials for vital drugs. The heating of the oceans will destroy 90% of coral reefs by 2050: corals simply will not be able to withstand thermal stress.
The perpetrators and consequences
Record temperatures and abnormal natural disasters have already reached the USA, China and European countries. Russia generally “heats up” 2.5 times faster than the rest of the world. Climatic changes in these territories are logical, since it is these countries that are leaders in the emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. China, the USA and India are included in the TOP-3 countries in CO2 emissions, and the totality of them accounts for 42.6% of world emissions. Russia took fifth place among the "pollutants" of the atmosphere, the European Union is in fourth.
High income countries are responsible for most of the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. In 2021, the average resident of North America “allocated” 11 times more carbon dioxide than a resident of Africa. On average, for a year, the personal carbon trace of one American is 21.1 tons of CO2 compared with 1.6 tons of emissions from one nigerian.
The consequences of climate change are felt around the world: from March to June, the temperature in India was at a mark of 40 degrees Celsius, and in some states the thermometer column rose to 51 degrees. China also regularly suffers due to heat, heavy rains and floods. Climate change made more powerful hurricanes that collapse in the United States. So, in 10 days, Florida immediately met two destructive hurricanes - Helen and Milton. Gusts of wind reached 287 kilometers per hour, and several hundred people across the country became victims of the elements.
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However, even destructive cataclysms and deadly waves of heat , which alreadytake the lives of tens of thousands of people, cannot convince humanity that it is urgent to reduce the consumption of fossil types of fuel. The fault of everything is a market that reacts to various risks. For example, the war in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions for Russian oil led to a sharp jump in oil prices, which later led to a sharp increase in gas prices andmade this one of the main topics of American politics.
The United States was able to solve the problem by increasing oil production, which made them the main manufacturer in the world. Now the United States is producing record volumes of oil - more than 13 million barrels per day. The increase in production, coupled withother measures, made it possible to stabilize gasoline prices within the United States: if in June 2022 Gallene gasoline cost $ 4.9, then in September 2024-already $ 3.1.
“To insist on reducing oil production in the United States is like squeezing a balloon: production will“ jump out ”in another place,” writes an expert on energy and climate of the Brucking Institute Samantha Gross.
The refusal of oil production is unprofitable for the largest exporters from the Middle Eastern countries that resist any initiative to limit their profit. For example, the Minister of Industry of the United Arab Emirates, Sultan al-Jaber, does not believe that there is any scientific evidence that the refusal of fossil fuel can slow down climate changes. He is convinced that the refusal of oil "will drive the world into the caves.
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Scientists are sure that many goals to combat climate change have not yet been partially achieved because of the "hard resistance of those who receive financial benefits from the current system based on fossil fuel." The OPEC members traditionally argue with the Arab countries - the International Energy Agency (IEA), which since 2021 calls for abandoning new projects for oil, gas and coal production. The IEA insists that the world should be invested more in environmental alternatives to filed fuel - renewable energy sources (renewable). In 2023, their share in the global energy reduced increased by 15% compared to 2022. However, they can still seriously compete with fossil types of fuel, the consumption of which is 14 times higher than that of renewables, they still cannot.
To slow down global warming, a quick and phased reduction in the use of fossil fuel is necessary . To achieve this goal, scientists offer to raise the “carbon price” - this is a tax that companies pay for excessive emissions of greenhouse gases. An analogue of carbon fee was introduced in the European Union and some other countries: for example, in Argentina, Canada and China. There is no such tax in Russia and the United States , although there are special programs in the USA that set the “carbon price” - with their help you can get tax benefits.
A terrible future
The vast majority of researchers from the intergovernmental group of climate experts (MGEIK) are sure that the average global temperature will exceed the pre -industrial indicator not by 1.5 degrees, as world leaders planned initially, but by 2.5–3 degrees Celsius. Only 6% of researchers continue to believe that the indicators will not go beyond the limits of the limit established by the Parisian agreement of 1.5–2 degrees.
Scientists from MGEIK predict a “semi -antiopic” future if you do not take any measures: the number of destructive cataclysms will only grow, and due to extreme temperatures, floods and melting of glaciers of territories suitable for life will be much smaller. All this provokes the struggle for the territory, which can cause new wars.
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Already now, 3.6 billion people live in potentially dangerous regions of Africa and Asia, which are directly affected by global warming. Studies say that from 2030 to 2050, residents of these areas can seriously suffer due to malnutrition, malaria and thermal stress, which will lead to 250 thousand additional deaths a year. If the medium -rate temperature exceeds the pre -industrial indicator by two degrees Celsius, then, according to scientists, aggregate human losses may exceed a billion people by 2100.
To soften .-, Forests, -GLOBAL%20TREE%20Cover) The consequences can be the world ocean if humanity finds a way to stop the growth of water temperature, as well as forests. The trees perform the function of the “guardians” of carbon: they absorb its particles and restrain them from entering the atmosphere. This process is called carbon sequestration .). But every year the planet loses more and more trees due to cutting down and forest fires. In 2022, 22.8 disappeared , and in 2023-already 28.3 million hectares of forest cover-an area comparable to the territory of modern Italy (30.2 million hectares).
Another way to reduce the load on the planet is to reduce the population. Now it is born every day .- Human%20population, -and%20ruminant%20livestock) 200 thousand people and 170 thousand animals used in agriculture. The population growth leads to an increase in consumption, which in turn increases greenhouse gas emissions. Now eight billion peoplelive on Earth, and by the mid-2080s the planet’s population will reach a peak of 10.3 billion.
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The volumes of emissions are still inhibiting the economic inequality between countries: if the average level of world consumption corresponded to the level of countries with high income, then the planet simply could not stand it . Due to the overcoming, the general emissions of CO2 are steadily growing from the middle of the 20th century. In 1950, humanity allocated 5.93 billion tons of carbon dioxide, when, as in 2022, this indicator amounted to 37.15 billion tons.
However, each person can make his personal contribution to the fight against climate change. Experts recommend reducing the consumption of goods and services, as well as regulate the supply of heat at home and keep a temperature at the level of 19–20 degrees Celsius. The fifth part of carbon emissions falls on transport, so the agency experts advise not to fly on airplanes, but to use trains and electric vehicles. If you cannot transfer to an electric car, it is recommended not to accelerate more than 100 kilometers per hour and not use the air conditioner in the car.
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Author: Alexandra Yastrebova photo: Alexey Malgavko / Reuters