Three reasons why investors should not react to the US elections

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The United States is approaching a major political event that will impact the entire global economy and markets—the presidential and congressional elections. As Ian Bremmer, founder of the Eurasia Group and one of the leading geopolitical analysts, noted , the outcome of the American elections will affect 8 billion people. At the same time, “only 160 million Americans will be eligible to vote, and the winner will be determined by only tens of thousands of voters in a few swing states.”

We'll go against the trend and tell you why investors shouldn't worry about the elections.

1. Unpredictability of results. Donald Trump has made a leap in recent months, and now his chances for the presidency are equal to those of Kamala Harris. The latest polls show either a tie between the candidates - Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are supported by 49% of voters in each of the seven swing states, according to Bloomberg data - or an advantage for one of them. Trump is leading in FT and WSJ polls, and Harris is leading in a Reuters poll. This means that it will be impossible to predict the outcome - probably until the very end.

But even if the polls showed an advantage, it would hardly be worth trusting completely. Public opinion polls from Trump's last election victory can no longer be regarded as an ideal guide, JP Morgan Asset Management notes . One version of why this happened is that voters are embarrassed to admit their support for the ideas of “populism.”