TsMAKP: the share of enterprises that complained about high rates is actually higher than in Rosstat data

Today, the Central Bank raised the key rate to a record 21%, including against the backdrop of growing corporate lending. It is less sensitive to rate increases, because a significant share of it falls on preferential programs and project financing, the Central Bank indicated . Businesses themselves have long been complaining about high interest rates - expensive loans slow down industrial growth.

According to the latest data from Rosstat, the share of enterprises that complained about limited production growth due to expensive loans was 25% in the second quarter of 2024. But in fact there may be much more of them - 41%, as follows from an analytical note by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMAF).

The low result of Rosstat turned out to be a consequence of a biased sample, analysts say. Since the beginning of 2021, a significant change in the composition of enterprises has been associated with the passage of the pandemic, when massive flows of enterprises between types of activities were observed. And from the beginning of 2023, a significant change in the composition of enterprises was due to the exclusion of a significant number of them from the list of those observed “in connection with the conduct of the SVO.”

Because of this, it turned out that actively growing enterprises, for which the high cost of borrowed funds is one of the most pressing problems, were excluded.

By the end of the year, the share of enterprises that consider expensive loans to be a factor limiting production growth will approach 50% even without a further increase in the key rate, according to TsMAKP analysts.