Second Cuban Missile Crisis

Yulia Latynina on why Biden allowed Ukraine to attack targets in Russia before Trump’s inauguration

President Biden nevertheless gave permission to launch long-range missile strikes against targets on Russian territory. Two such strikes were carried out: one - with the help of ATACMS on a warehouse in the Bryansk region, the other - by the British Storm Shadow, on the command post of the Kursk group.

In response, Putin fired a modified Yars (without the first stage) with multiple warheads at the territory of Yuzhmash in the Dnieper.

In a way it was symbolic. Instead of flying into space like Musk, a modification of Russia's most successful rocket is hitting the shutdown plant where the fearsome Soviet Satan was once produced. Two halves are not just smaller than the whole: they cancel each other out.

And, of course, this was the next step in the escalation, putting the world on the brink of nuclear war.

On the eve of this step, we note that Putin disappeared from the radar: he was apparently afraid that the missile would come at him (according to rumors, back in the summer, Ukrainian intelligence was planning an attack on Putin’s yacht during Navy Day in St. Petersburg, and it was with this that the famous July 12 call from Belousov to Austin ).

The most likely scenario for ending the escalation is a repetition of the final stage of the Cuban Missile Crisis. At the last moment, Trump calls Putin, they save the world from disaster, everyone breathes a sigh of relief. The only question is when they will call: after the first nuclear strike or before. Some tragicomic moments of what is happening (an allegedly accidental call from Zakharova right during a briefing, etc.) make one think that everything that is happening is a big nuclear bluff, and Putin, firstly, has climbed so high on the nuclear tree that he will have to get down, and secondly , he doesn’t have any strategic need to bring the matter to the core now, other than a thorough demonstration of the kid’s offended pride.

In principle, it looks as if Trump and Putin are either about to reach an agreement, or have already reached an agreement. And President Biden’s entourage decided to break this agreement as a farewell, putting the world on the brink of a nuclear disaster. Anything to screw with Trump.

Let's note two things here.

First, granting Ukraine the right to use ATACMS on Russian territory at this stage cannot turn the tide of a conventional war.

This move is determined by Putin’s strategic (successful) decisions and the strategic mistakes of President Zelensky. President Zelensky fired Zaluzhny for political reasons and disorganized the management of the army. President Zelensky was never able to build fortifications on the path of the Russian army (although money for these fortifications was regularly allocated and disappeared in an unknown direction). President Zelensky delayed mobilization: and while he hesitated, Russian Lancets destroyed Ukrainian artillery. Western politicians openly state that under Zelensky, up to 50% of Western aid to Ukraine was stolen .

If Zaluzhny had remained at the head of the army, if the mobilization had been carried out on time and not postponed for the sake of likes, if the fortifications had been built, then the Russian army would simply have crashed against these fortifications in the same way as the Ukrainian Armed Forces crashed against the fortifications in Zaporozhye, at the front there would have been a positional deadlock in the First World War, and no ATACMS would have been required.

Zelensky acted in the hope of receiving help from the ruling Democratic Party apparatus in the United States. His calculation was that Ukraine would not be allowed to lose. The worse things were for Ukraine, the deeper the United States was doomed to get involved in the war. The calculation was that while Zelensky was fighting with Putin, he would lose. And if a world war breaks out, then Ukraine will ride to victory on the backs of the American sleigh.

Before the elections, Zelensky came to the United States with a “Victory Plan,” which basically consisted of this. The United States had to fight for Ukraine for the good reason that Zelensky fired capable generals, did not build fortifications and did not mobilize.

The Biden administration laughed at this and proposed a counter-plan to the war freeze already agreed upon by all parties. It was supposed to freeze the war along the line of military contact and continue to talk until the carrots were hatched. Ending the war was supposed to add points to Kamala Harris before the election.

But Zelensky was not satisfied with this plan: after all, in the event of a freeze in the war, it was necessary to hold elections, and elections, as President Zelensky tells us in an unwavering voice, “are disastrous for Ukraine.” It is much more important to focus on the fight for democracy.

Trump won. Zelensky's situation has gotten even worse. The Russian military roller, advancing inexorably, crushed Ukrainian troops in the Donbass. The front was gradually crumbling. Even the situation in the Kursk region, where large-scale attacks by Russian troops led to insignificant Russian advances and horrific Russian losses, did not save the situation. After all, the Kursk group of the Russian Army consists of 50 thousand people, and 300 thousand are fighting in Donbass. Putin's priorities are completely clear from this. One might even suspect that the Kursk bridgehead for Putin, despite all its political humiliation, is a wonderful machine for retaining and grinding the best Ukrainian units, which are so lacking in the Donbass.

Trump has made it clear that he expects concessions from both Putin and Zelensky. The new agreement was becoming a reality before our eyes. The rhetoric of Zelensky and his office became increasingly desperate. Zelensky said that Ukraine is a sovereign country that the United States does not dare dictate to, which prompted Elon Musk’s sarcastic remark: “This Zelensky is a great joker.”

And here - in this situation - Biden suddenly fulfilled all Zelensky’s wishes, which were so laughed at in Washington during the visit. For what? See above: to make life difficult for Trump.

Long-range missiles will not change the strategic situation now that Russian troops have long adapted to a new war, and most of the Russian army's warehouses and airfields have long been dispersed or moved beyond ATACMS range. But they, of course, would have been devastating one and a half or two years ago.

At that time, however, the Biden administration did not issue ATACMS. Moreover. Then, under the influence of nuclear blackmail, she changed her plan for the war in Ukraine.

This plan apparently went through three stages. In the first stage - as Bob Woodward's recent book describes quite eloquently - the Biden administration did everything to ensure that, if war could still be avoided, it would become inevitable. Putin was then assured that the war would not go beyond the borders of Ukraine and there would be no participation of American troops.

At this moment, it was planned to strangle Putin with sanctions involving China and India, and Ukraine was assigned the fate of Afghanistan: the guerrilla war in conquered Ukraine was supposed to tear down and erase Putin. Zelensky then - February 19, 2022 - Kamala Harris at a meeting in response to his question: “What should I do?” replied: “Think about the government in exile.”

The next stage came in April 2022, when it became clear that Zaluzhny’s plan, contrary to the expectations of the Biden administration, had worked. General Zaluzhny managed to inflict unacceptable losses on Russian troops, Putin asked for peace, and negotiations began in Istanbul. Then the Biden administration made it clear that it was ready to supply Ukraine with serious weapons. The purpose of these supplies was precisely outlined by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on April 24, two days before the first Ramstein: “We want to see Russia weakened to such an extent that it cannot do things like what it is now doing in Ukraine.”

The third stage began in October 2022, after the successful offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv region. Then the White House received news that Putin was ready to use nuclear weapons. All world leaders were involved: from Xi to Modi, who expressed their concerns. And there was a call between the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, and the head of the Russian General Staff, Gerasimov, during which Milley asked under what conditions Russia might use nuclear weapons. “In the event of a catastrophic defeat on the battlefield,” Gerasimov replied. “Well, then everything is all right,” General Milley assured him.

“My analysis of the battlefield is I don't think you're going to be suffering a catastrophic loss.”

Soon after this conversation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine - instead of, as General Zaluzhny insisted, attacking the land corridor, which was completely unprotected at that time, devoid of fortifications and troops - began a bloody, attritional attack on the masses of Russian troops near Kherson.

Instead of cutting the unprotected branch on which the pear was hanging, they began to shake the pear itself for a long time and bloodily, with great losses.

Then the Armed Forces of Ukraine exhausted the prisoners near Bakhmut. And after that, in the summer of 2023, the undersupplied, understaffed Ukrainian army was ordered to smash itself against the fortifications built by Surovikin in Zaporozhye.

At any of these points - both in 2022 and 2023 - the transfer of ATACMS and other important weapons to Ukraine would turn the tide of the war. Why ATACMS! Simply allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to attack the land corridor in the fall of 2022 meant the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ access to Crimea.

But then the White House administration forbade the Ukrainian army to win. To a large extent, precisely because of Putin’s nuclear threat. They believed that a cornered dictator was highly likely to use nuclear weapons, and they did not want to drive him into a corner. She also had no intention of helping Zelensky a month ago.

Trump's victory changed everything. The desire to annoy Trump turned out to be the strongest. Stronger than fears of nuclear war. Stronger than considerations about the complete strategic uselessness of ATACMS.

Neither Zelensky’s requests nor Putin’s threats entered into this equation. There was no strategic need to bring the world to the brink of the Cuban Missile Crisis. The only thing that drove the Biden administration was the realization that Trump would actually stop the war they had brought to a stalemate.

There is only one hope: that Trump will use this setup to triumphantly announce the resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0.

The fact that Putin started this war is worse than a crime. This is a mistake. But this does not change the fact that Biden decided to smoke in a warehouse with nuclear weapons just for the pleasure of putting out a bull on Trump’s shoe.

The Democrats were afraid to corner Putin for two years, but in the end they cornered Zelensky. And before the curtain they gave him ATACMS.

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