Who will Ukrainian deserters vote for?

Yulia Latynina - about how Zelensky is escalating, despite the difficult situation at the front

The editors may not share the author's opinions.

According to the Associated Press, there are 200 thousand deserters in Ukraine. At the same time, a total of 300 thousand soldiers are fighting at the front. In some units, up to a third of military personnel refuse to participate in battles—they are not included in the number of deserters.

But that's not all. In January there were also about 300 thousand people at the front. President Vladimir Zelensky then estimated the total number of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers at 880 thousand. Quite a reasonable ratio, if we assume that for 300 thousand fighting there were 300 thousand rotation and reserve, plus 100 thousand support troops, plus about 100 thousand on the borders with Belarus, Bryansk and Kursk regions, plus headquarters, plus TCC (territorial acquisition centers).

However, since then mobilization has taken place in Ukraine, and in November the payroll of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reached, according to their former press secretary, up to 1.3 million. If you believe these figures, it turns out that the Armed Forces of Ukraine increased by 400 thousand people, and the number The troops at the front remained almost unchanged. It remains the same as 300 thousand.

It is clear that these figures are very approximate. However, the most obvious assumption is that

mobilization in Ukraine practically does not work. As much flows out of the hole as flows in. There are as many fleeing from the front as the TCC is driving there, and even the figure of 200 thousand deserters may be greatly underestimated.

Zelensky simply lacks people ready to participate in the war.

In addition, the payroll of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine is 700 thousand people. At least half of them must have military experience or VUS (military specialty). In Ukraine there is a prosecutor's office, prison guards, the Security Service of Ukraine and the Ministry of Emergency Situations. Each of these departments consists of 30–40 thousand people with military experience or military specialty. All together can give over 500 thousand people who, on the occasion of the “existential war”, must be ready at the first call of their homeland to plug the holes at the front.

For some reason, Zelensky does not call them.

Two million people liable for military service left the country. Up to 25% of Ukrainians admit that most of their friends avoid mobilization. In the east, this figure rises to 39%.

During this entire war, Zelensky practically did not build any serious fortifications. Everywhere - in Avdeevka, Pokrovsk, Chasovy Yar, Toretsk - the Russian army is held back by the old third line of fortifications, built under Poroshenko. Only according to official estimates, 20 billion hryvnia were stolen from the construction of fortifications.

According to the head of the Ministry of Industry and Industry German Smetanin (his statement was conveyed by MP Alexey Goncharenko), 150 thousand mines had to be recalled from the front as being of poor quality. The soldiers at the front reassemble them: they unscrew the fuses, put in a very ordinary cartridge instead, reassemble something else - and the mine flies and works. You can imagine what it’s like to reassemble a mine in a trench at night.

Russian troops are advancing not quickly, but systematically, and the Ukrainian front, at the point of application of their efforts, is not quickly, but is slowly crumbling. The Ukrainian Armed Forces simply do not have enough manpower to resist the repeated tactics over and over again. Russian troops stumble upon a fortified area, outflank it and cut off supply lines. Even if the area is defended by a combat-ready unit, the flank formations retreat, and the combat-ready troops are forced to retreat from the “bag”.

Russia had just occupied the fortifications in Shevchenko - there was the only new serious fortification, truly built from scratch. The point is that

2 km from Shevchenko is Peschanoye, and in it there is a coking coal mine, which supplies 90% of the Ukrainian metallurgical industry and belongs to Rinat Akhmetov. Akhmetov somehow tried to strengthen it.

However, it was occupied without a fight, and here's why. Due to the complexity of the situation, the new 155th mechanized brigade, just brought from France, where it had undergone many months of training and was equipped and equipped to the highest level, was sent to protect Shevchenko and Peschany. The 155th Brigade is one of those that trained in Europe and had great hopes.

However, more than half of the brigade consisted of recently mobilized people. As a result, 1000 people fled before she reached the front. It simply did not occupy the fortifications. After two counterattacks, a significant part of their participants also fled. The situation in the 155th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was reported , in particular, by Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov.

President-elect Donald Trump said he wants to stop this war and threatens to create problems for the side that does not agree to the freeze.

In such conditions, the tactics of both sides should be, it would seem, understandable. Vladimir Putin, who has a strategic advantage, can pretend that he agrees to the freeze, while simultaneously trying to shift responsibility for the continuation of the war to Zelensky. And the President of Ukraine should strive for a freeze at any cost, because each subsequent month for Kyiv is worse than the previous one.

Putin really behaves as described above, that is, extremely rationally, while the behavior of President Zelensky inspires amazement. He is constantly trying to escalate the situation under any pretext: either ATACMS across Russian territory, or by killing General Kirillov, or using drones on high-rise buildings in Kazan. He continues to demand “NATO guarantees,” and the head of his office calls all Russians “a collective Sauron.”

The reason for this behavior of President Zelensky is quite clear. He is losing the war and is afraid that after it is over, he will have to answer for all this in the elections.

Russia is a dictatorship. It arrests dissidents, punishes dissent, and treats Ukrainian prisoners of war horribly, inhumanely. But Ukraine under Zelensky has turned into a failed state. Not building fortifications during an “existential war” is a failed state. Having as many deserters as troops fighting at the front is a failed state.

No one will enter into a nuclear war for the sake of a failed state. Especially President Trump, who views this war as the result of the activities of corrupt globalists. According to rumors, people from his circle recently suggested that Ukraine consider the possibility of leaving the entire Donetsk region. This was an extremely vague proposal, which most likely reflected Russian demands and was only an instrument of pressure. But the very fact that it was done (contrary to the main plan to freeze the war along the line of military contact) shows how President Zelensky is perceived in Trump’s circle.