Arctic on the Brink: Challenges of the Climate Crisis and Steps Toward a Sustainable Future

What will help protect the Arctic for future generations?

The Arctic is becoming the epicenter of climate change, which impacts not only this region, but also the entire planet. The melting of permafrost, the shrinking of ice cover, and their resulting consequences are, in the end, just the tip of the iceberg. To confront threats to the climate, significant steps are in order – for one, implementing an energy transition to reduce our dependence on greenhouse gas emissions. Arctida explains how the effects of climate change are reflected in the Russian Arctic, its future, and what measures will help to mitigate its negative consequences.

What’s happening to the climate?

The climate crisis has long ceased to be a hypothetical threat – scientists have already warned about the consequences of anthropogenic climate change for decades.

In 1992, about 1,700 leading scientists issued an open letter titled “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity,” urging an end to environmental destruction to avoid impending “vast human misery” and irreversible damage to “our global home on this planet.” Among the dangers, they highlighted the increase of carbon dioxide levels in the Earth’s atmosphere, which “may alter climate on a global scale.”

A quarter of a century later, when climate change had become an obvious reality, humanity received a “Second Warning” in 2017. This time, the appeal was signed by over 15,000 scientists:

“Especially troubling is the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to rising [greenhouse gasses] from burning fossil fuels.”

In December 2015, countries around the world adopted the Paris Accords, committing to efforts to limit the rise in the planet’s global average temperature to within 1.5°C about pre-industrial levels. This period is typically considered to be 1850-1900.

This level is considered a relatively safe upper limit, although it still involves a high risk of irreversible changes, like the massive loss of glaciers. Even more alarming are the consequences involved in a temperature rise of 2°C. This would lead to large-scale wildfires, increased heat-related mortality, the spread of malaria and dengue fever, the likely disappearance of coral reefs, and other deleterious consequences.

In 2019, Russia signed the Paris Accords, ranking fifth in the world for greenhouse gas emissions.

However, data shows that despite all the warnings from scientists and the adopted regulations, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. Current measures by countries to reduce emissions still lead to a warming of 2.7°C by the end of the century. If emissions remain high, warming by 2100 could reach 4°C. This risks a level of destabilization, damage and mass migration that could make adaptation turn out to be fundamentally impossible.

💡 Now, due to ongoing greenhouse gas emissions, the planet’s average temperature continues to break records from previous years. The year 2024 will become the hottest in recorded history, and for the first time, humanity will surpass the threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels through the course of an entire year.

The Arctic: A key indicator of climate change

The damage from hazardous natural and climatic events in Russia alone amounts to tens of billions of rubles annually, and the number of natural disasters in the country is growing. One of the regions experiencing both economic and environmental losses due to climate change is the Arctic.

💡 Russia is warming 2.5 times faster than the global average, while the Arctic, according to various estimates, is warming three to four times faster.

Here climate change threatens to melt the permafrost, which will consequently limit the extent of livable area in the territory. As the planet continues to warm, the number of hot weather days will increase, negatively affecting the environment and public health in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF). Dangers stand to rise with an intensification of storm activity, floods, precipitation, and coastal erosion.

Moreover, the disappearance of sea ice in the Arctic during summer periods could break the planet’s "air conditioner" – as the Arctic is dubbed due to the high reflectivity of its sea ice – leading to even greater warming and the extinction of entire species (for example, the polar bear).

The regions of the Russian Federation were supposed to adopt regional climate adaptation plans by the end of 2022. Most Arctic regions of Russia, except for the Murmansk region, have already published their plans. These documents outline the risks and damage posed by climate change, as well as strategies for adapting to the ongoing impacts of global warming.

According to Arctida, the climate adaptation plans of the AZRF most commonly highlight climate risks such as floods, hurricanes and tornadoes, heatwaves, frosts during the growing season, heavy precipitation, and wildfires. Among the most dangerous risks (classified as "catastrophic" or "highly dangerous"), floods, hurricanes and tornadoes, heatwaves, and wildfires are cited most often.

The Arkhangelsk region's plan does not include a corresponding table with climate risk assessment results, and the Murmansk region does not have a plan. Therefore, the infographic represents only eight out of ten regions in the AZRF.

💡Some regions of the AZRF also provide data on damage. For example, in the Republic of Karelia, from 2005 to 2020, the material damage from natural emergencies amounted to 748.08 million rubles. This is approximately equal to 1% of the annual budget expenditures for all purposes in the Republic.

In the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug – Yugra, potential future losses from weather and climate risks are estimated to range from 1,381 billion rubles to 4,602 billion rubles annually (which is up to 1% of the region's current annual budget expenditures).

Particular concern is raised by the increasing risks associated with the thawing of permafrost, to which Arctic regions are especially vulnerable. Already, 40% of buildings and engineering structures in permafrost zones within the AZRF have been deformed. Specifically, in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, by 2030 the bearing capacity of piles across the region is expected to decrease by 12-53%, depending on soil type, including the complete thawing of permafrost in certain latitudes.

What measures is Russia declaring to fight the crisis?

In addition to joining the Paris Agreement, Russia is also adopting its own strategic documents that regulate the fight against climate change.

Russia has adopted the Strategy for Socio-Economic Development with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050 (hereinafter referred to as the Strategy) and the Climate Doctrine. Their goal is to achieve a balance between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and their absorption – climate or carbon neutrality – by 2060.

In addition, the government officially recognizes the severity of the climate crisis. The Strategy mentions the "widespread and irreversible consequences" of climate change for human and natural systems, as well as significant risks to the country’s economy and population, including extreme weather events, permafrost thawing, and more.

However, Russia's climate actions are often criticized for being insufficient in terms of directly reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, the government places disproportionate focus on increasing the carbon absorption capacity of ecosystems (for example, by recalculating emissions using its own "sovereign" methods for calculating absorption instead of international ones).

💡Analysts assess Russia’s current climate goals as "critically insufficient" in contributing to the achievement of global climate targets.

We have already discussed the climate adaptation plans adopted by more regional jurisdictions. They are a necessary step, but they merely treat the symptoms of climate change – adaptation alone is not enough. It is critical to address the root cause of the problem: greenhouse gas emissions.

Energy transition: A means to address climate change

The energy transition is a global process of structural changes in the energy system. Today, it is associated with shifting away from fossil fuels – coal, oil, and natural gas – toward renewable energy sources (RES). This transition also includes the electrification of transportation, heating systems, and various industrial processes, such as steel production, along with other measures.

The global energy sector is responsible for 73% of greenhouse gas emissions. According to a special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C, primary energy consumption from oil must be reduced by 87% (from 2010 levels) by 2050, fossil (natural) gas by 74%, and coal must be phased out almost entirely (by 97%).

💡 In Russia, fossil fuels account for 87.5% of primary energy consumption. Overall, the energy sector is responsible for nearly 80% of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions, making it crucial to focus on reducing emissions in this area.

The Russian Ministry of Energy acknowledges that low-carbon development is a key global trend in recent years, driving the shift to a new technological framework in the energy sector. However, the country's current progress in this area remains modest.

In the international ranking of the Country Transition Tracker, none of Russia's energy transition indicators have yet reached the "green" zone. The reasons are multiple: for example, the weak development of RES and the increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector from 2017 to 2023.

Regional initiatives could play an important role in Russia's energy transition as part of achieving carbon neutrality. The Arctic regions of the country have significant potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and many of the possible measures also make direct economic sense – for example, the development of local RES to replace expensive diesel fuel.

The Arctic is both our challenge and opportunity for action. Every effort to adapt to climate change, reduce emissions, and implement sustainable technologies matters. Local initiatives, especially in the Arctic regions, are already demonstrating their effectiveness, and scaling them up could be key to successfully addressing the climate crisis.

By preserving the unique ecosystems of the Arctic, we protect the climate balance of the entire planet. It is important to support and share positive examples, as they pave the way to a cleaner, safer, and more sustainable future.

Cover photo by Ivan Shemereko