“We can talk about four scenarios.” Military results for 2024 and forecasts for 2025 in a large review by Nikolai Mitrokhin

Damaged Russian equipment in Ukraine

Photo: AR

Columnist Nikolai Mitrokhin, who every week prepared military reports for Republic readers with an analysis of what was happening on the fronts in Ukraine, prepared a general overview of military events for 2024, and also voiced his own forecasts for 2025. He notes that the world as a whole has adapted to the shock of a major war on the European continent - the first of its kind in almost 80 years - and that conflict is increasingly being pushed aside by the new problems facing humanity. At the same time, in 2024, Russia managed to turn the war in its favor in the land theater of operations and seize the largest amount of Ukrainian territory since 2022. It is increasingly clear that a possible end to the conflict will occur after Russian-American negotiations. Now Russia and Ukraine, as Mitrokhin points out, have four options for the development of events.

Another year of war in global terms

The main result of the third year of the war was a clear understanding by all participants and observers of the conflict that Ukraine could not win this war. It will not be possible to return by military means not only to the borders on January 1, 2014 (or to the borders of 1991), as the country’s political leadership has repeatedly stated, but also to the border of the territory actually controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on January 1, 2022. Moreover, after the election of US President Donald Trump, the principle declared by Kyiv’s Western allies and fiercely defended about the determining nature of the position of the victim of aggression in the peace treaty came into question.

It is increasingly clear that a possible end to the war will occur after Russian-American (or American-Chinese with the participation of Russia and the EU) negotiations with results that Ukraine and the EU will have to come to terms with. At the same time, it is not at all a fact that the parties will be able to reach an agreement and the war will end in 2025, and will not continue further, until Russia achieves some of its goals or, conversely, its exhaustion.

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