Translated material
“Putin really wants to create the appearance that he is ready to fight endlessly, but this is a bluff.” Political scientist Abbas Gallyamov* - about the chances of ending the war between Russia and Ukraine
Almost three years after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, many have hope that it will end soon. And it is connected with the return of Donald Trump to the White House. What are the chances that his rise to power in the United States will actually influence the course of the war and push the parties to negotiate? How can the US President put pressure on Vladimir Putin and force him to peace? What impact will the economic situation have on political processes in Russia? And what can the Russian opposition in exile do other than rely on Trump? We talked about this with political scientist Abbas Gallyamov (the Russian Ministry of Justice considers him a foreign agent).
— Judging by the results of various opinion polls and comments from experts and politicians, many people expect the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine next year. And these expectations are associated with the assumption of Donald Trump as President of the United States. To what extent do you think these hopes are justified?
— Hopes are fully justified. A person came to leadership in the United States who is not burdened with responsibility for what happened before him; in this sense, he is not overloaded with negativity. As a mediator, Trump is acceptable to both sides. For Zelensky, because America is the main sponsor of Ukraine, and for Putin, because he came on the wave of denial of Biden’s legacy. Unlike Biden, who from the first day took the side of Ukraine, Trump is not a participant in the conflict, he is above the fray, at least for now. At the same time, Trump never quarreled with Putin or criticized him. This is very important for Putin, perhaps more important than anything else. You can take a tough position towards Russia, but don’t touch me personally - that’s Putin’s real request.
Adding to the Trump factor is the fact that the parties, both Russia and Ukraine, are already exhausted. In both countries there are influential camps that believe that it is time to end the war, even at the cost of concessions. True, we must also take into account the fact that Trump is an extremely unpredictable person, capable of very strange, hardly explainable actions. Consider some of his personnel decisions or, for example, statements that it would be nice to annex Canada, Greenland, and return the Panama Canal to the United States. It would seem like nonsense, but this nonsense really happens. Therefore, any expectations associated with Trump may lead to nothing. No one understands what to expect from him, it seems to me, not even himself.
In general, the chances of success of the negotiations would now increase sharply if, following the American president, the leaders of the warring parties were also replaced. Zelensky could invite Putin to resign at the same time.
You see, there is a very strong personal component in this story; it is this that drives the conflict deeper. First of all, Putin is to blame for this, of course, but he won’t leave alone, right? Therefore, Zelensky’s resignation is also necessary. It would be much easier for new leaders, burdened with a history of personal grievances, to reach an agreement. They wouldn’t have to “save face”; they could speak purely to the point, without emotion.
“But Putin is demonstrating that he is not in the mood to stop - he continues to wage war, declares military successes, seizing territories and seems to feel quite confident.
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