Translated material
Waiting for the world
Check out the polls! Russian society, and not only it, is waiting for the end of hostilities
18+. THIS MATERIAL (INFORMATION) IS PRODUCED, DISTRIBUTED AND (OR) SENT BY FOREIGN AGENT VISHNEVSKY BORIS LAZAREVICH OR CONCERNES THE ACTIVITIES OF FOREIGN AGENT VISHNEVSKY BORIS LAZAREVICH.
The majority of those surveyed by the Levada Center* in mid-December (71%) hope that, compared to 2024, the coming year 2025 will be better:
13% believe that it will definitely be better,
58% - really hope that it will be better,
13% - think it will be no worse
9% - unlikely anything will change,
3% - that the new year will be worse than the outgoing one.
Considering (according to other polls) that more than half of respondents are in favor of a transition to peace negotiations, it is not difficult to guess what improvements society primarily expects from the coming year.
A November Russian Field poll showed the highest level of support for peace negotiations with Ukraine among Russians over the past two years: 53% of respondents support the start of negotiations, and 36% support the continuation of the peace negotiations. In turn, the share of those who advocate the continuation of the SVO has reached its minimum value over the past two years. And what is also extremely important:
60% of respondents are ready to support a ceasefire without any preconditions, while 30% are against this option.
Let us note that the answers to these questions are quite safe for respondents, and the estimates given can be considered more or less adequate even in the current conditions. In contrast to the question “do you support the actions of the Russian armed forces?”, which is much more “risky” for the respondent, who understands that the anonymity of his answers and personal data is not guaranteed in the current situation - with all possible consequences.
The expectation of peace is growing, and not only in Russia. According to data provided by the polling service Gallup in November, 52% of Ukrainians are in favor of a transition to peace negotiations (a year earlier there were about 27%), and only 38% believe that hostilities should be continued (in 2023, 63% thought so). .
Almost identical data from both surveys show that slowly but surely, what was vehemently rejected not so long ago is becoming the prevailing opinion.
Let me remind you of the July letter from the Nobel laureates, which spoke of a ceasefire and negotiations. In the derogatory criticism of this appeal, as I quoted in Novaya, Kremlin opponents who emigrated from Russia and Kremlin propagandists merged into a single chorus.
Let me also remind you of the assurances of the “progressive public” that Yabloko’s demands for a ceasefire are supposedly “beneficial to Putin,” who will “accumulate strength” during the respite (by the way, Putin has now begun to say that the “respite” is for exactly the same purposes “accumulation of forces” - “beneficial to Ukraine”).
And the persecution that the said “progressive public” inflicted on Lev Shlosberg*, who called “a party of someone else’s blood” those who, being safe themselves, demand the continuation of hostilities...
And yet, the mood is changing, and not only in society: slowly but surely the political rhetoric on both sides is changing, reminiscent of the well-known stage of “bargaining before acceptance.”
Now Putin is already talking about the possibility of holding negotiations without preconditions (indicating, in particular, “neutral” Slovakia as a possible negotiation platform). Although he declares his readiness to speak only with the “legitimate authorities” in Ukraine after the presidential elections there (which is typical, the same scrupulous attitude towards questions of the legitimacy of the current Syrian leadership, which came to power as a result of an armed coup, is not demonstrated). And Zelensky is already talking about a possible ceasefire and negotiations without first fulfilling the strict conditions that he declared earlier, recognizing that it will not be possible to return the territories by force. And pro-government Russian speakers (and from among the outspoken “hawks”) publicly say that negotiations with Ukraine could begin in 2025...
The impetus for this may be the reign of Donald Trump, starting on January 20 in the United States, who during the election campaign has repeatedly stated that he knows how to stop the fighting (although, of course, the rhetoric of a presidential candidate and the actions of the elected president are always somewhat different from each other ). If he really takes active steps in this direction, the chance of a ceasefire will increase.
And very, very much depends on this. Including a chance for change in Russia, for which a ceasefire is a necessary, although not sufficient, condition.
Many people are waiting for these changes and hoping for them. Citizens forced to live in the force field of repressive laws are not at all “sitting on their butts, shaking in horror,” as a journalist who left the country long ago contemptuously speaks of them, assuring that everyone who resisted was “killed, thrown into prison or expelled.” .
Such an idea of those who, not agreeing with what was happening, remained in Russia, is quite typical for some of those who left (albeit a small, but noisy one). It probably helps them assert themselves, feeling like “guardians of normality,” but it is categorically far from reality.
One in which millions of people in Russia retain their dignity,
do not succumb to the propaganda of hatred and aggression, despise informers, support friends and relatives, help the weak and refugees, write letters to political prisoners (which is extremely important for them) and go to court on “political” cases,
showing those who are persecuted that they are not left alone with the repressive system, they protect their violated rights from the arbitrariness of the authorities.
The road to a ceasefire, negotiations and peace is extremely difficult and full of potholes, each of which can cause you to stumble.
Everything is happening much slower than we would like. But every day of delay on this road increases the number of victims and destruction...
But this road exists, and you need to walk along it.