Europe seems to want to abandon liquefied natural gas from the Russian Federation - but last year set the next record in terms of its import

How so?

Russia in 2024 exported the record volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG). According to RBC, based on the data of the KPLER analytical company, last year the country put 33.6 million tons of raw materials abroad-4% more than in 2023, and 2% more than in 2022, when he was The previous maximum (32.9 million tons) was reached. In December 2024, a record was set for a monthly export volume. The latter amounted to 3.25 million tons-this is 1.3% more than in December 2023 (then deliveries reached 3.21 million tons).

More than half- 52% -exported in 2024, was in the countries of Europe. This is 4% more than in 2023. The main buyers in the region were France (6.3 million tons), Spain (4.8), Belgium (4.4) and the Netherlands (1.3). Moreover, they exported a significant amount to other EU countries. For example, Germany, which, prohibiting the supply of Russian LNG through its ports, nevertheless acquired a record volume of raw materials in 2024 through France.

Because there are no alternatives capable of replacing the raw materials from the Russian Federation today de facto. As the senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center for the Study of Russia and Eurasia Sergey Vakulenko noted , there is no surplus in the LNG market, and at the beginning of the 2025th, 15 billion cubic meters of gas have fallen from the energy balance of Europe-after the Russian transit to stop through Ukraine. Probably, over time, the United States will be able to replace them, where two new lines of LNG plants for 27 million tons per year are built (36 billion cubic meters of gas) - but so far Europe has to purchase raw materials from the Russian Federation with a record pace. The latter in January only accelerated .

Europe, however, does not refuse plans to stop the import of imports from the Russian Federation. In 2024, the first sanctions were imposed against the Russian LNG: the EU countries banned the re-export of raw materials (which analysts interpreted primarily as the desire of EU members to satisfy their own energy needs), investments in Russian LNG projects, limited the port infrastructure available to suppliers and placed under restrictions on part of the LNG Flot of the largest Russian manufacturer-Novateka.

Today, according to Bloomberg sources, the countries of the European Union are discussing a complete abandonment of Russian energy resources, including LNG, by 2027. But the discussion is difficult: the publication of the phased plan for the termination of deliveries has been postponed from the end of February to March 26. As in the case of pipeline gas from the Russian Federation, it is difficult for all 27 EU states to come to a compromise due to the difference in the level of dependence on Russian raw materials.

Experts surveyed by RBC suggest that this year the European Union countries will really significantly reduce the share of LNG imported from the Russian Federation. The Finam investment company, for example, believe that the region will be ready to abandon Russian raw materials no earlier than a year and a half. This, in particular, is due to the expected sharp decrease in reserves in the underground gas storage facilities following the results of the heating season 2024/2025 compared to the previous year.

At the same time, American sanctions may affect Russian export. In January, two major LNG enterprises from the Russian Federation, focused on the European market,-the Gazprom LNG Portovaya and the Novateka-controlled Cryogaz-Vysotsk, controlled in January, were in January. A year earlier, US sanctions spread to another project “Novateka” - “Arctic LNG 2”. And in the 2024th, the plant was faced with difficulties in organizing supplies to foreign customers.

Considering that the Donald Trump administration threatens Vladimir Putin with tightening sanctions against the oil and gas sector in case of the Kremlin’s refusal to conclude peace with Ukraine, it is very difficult to build reliable forecasts about the fate of the export of Russian LNG. Nevertheless, the basic scenario of the same “finam” involves an increase in the supply of raw materials to 35 million tons. Also, increase in shipments by 3% compared with the 2024 indicator is expected at the Institute of Energy and Finance.

"Jellyfish"