Translated material
Falled - pressed!
Kazakhstan has been ordered to switch to the regime of strict savings: a sharp increase in VAT and increase in gas prices. And all dissatisfied - repressions
Photo: Vlad Nekrasov / Kommersant
On Tuesday, January 28, in Astana, a course was proclaimed for the strongest economic shake of Kazakhstan. At an expanded meeting of the government with the participation of President Kasim-Zhomart Tokayev, tax reform was fundamentally approved, which will primarily sharply raise value added tax from the current 12% to 20% forgotten (the last time such a VAT rate was back in the 90s in the 90s. years). The threshold will decrease for mandatory VAT registration - from 78 million tenge (15.6 million rubles) at once up to 15 million ( 3 million rubles - hereinafter all the calculations for the convenience of the reader will be shown in rubles, based on the approximate parity of the currency pair “Ruble - Tenge "one to five .
In addition, the future Tax Code will allow, among other things, to cancel the benefit of VAT on housing, although there is still no final decision on this part. Together with the fact that after three days, gas prices are released in the country, this, even according to official forecasts, will increase its cost by about one and a half times, to a mark of about 60 rubles per liter, albeit not immediately, you can imagine what effect is what effect This will produce ordinary Kazakhstanis to the wallets.
Economists call the upcoming increase in prices by inflationary shock, President Tokayev - by the time when “you need to tighten your belts and live in the means”, the Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangari suggests that the cost of about 4.5%will rise, and also promises that the authorities will think about the abolition social tax and mandatory pension contributions of the employer. Tax reform should be introduced next year, but the government is in a hurry and want to introduce new rules for collecting taxes by October 2025.
4.5% is a figure that seems small until you start counting your own money. The correspondent of Novaya and the New ”made very approximate calculations, what and how will change in his family budget, in an approximate accordance with the forecasts of the government - how can you not believe the state?
The author of these lines has official work in Kazakhstan and several part -time jobs as an individual entrepreneur. In total, he receives about 200 thousand rubles after deduction of all taxes.
Of these 200 thousand, a quarter goes to pay for rental housing, and there is no reason to believe that it will not grow (+2250 rubles). Add utilities here: 6000 rubles on average now + 270 rubles later.
A private kindergarten costs 15 thousand rubles, and will cost 15,675 rubles.
Fortunately, the author does not have his own car, so he will not affect him directly. But he will hook indirectly: you are not on Astana on foot, and about 10,000 rubles a month take to buses and taxi in total. We assume that now we need 10 450 rubles.
A relatively diverse set of products takes 32,000 rubles per month - and this is if without special frills, but at least with meat. We will give the state 1440 rubles from above.
For all sorts of additional activity like going to a rink or hockey match, future circles and tutors for the child and psychotherapy for parents, about 50 thousand rubles should be stimulated in total. With government plans - 52,250 rubles.
In this scheme, there is absolutely no: new clothes, trips to relatives to other cities, food for a cat (and it should be added: it eats be healthy) and buying books / household appliances / turpet. Yes, a lot of things are not, but even in these calculations, constant expenses increase from 162 thousand to 171 more than a thousand rubles.
The remaining 30 thousand rubles for accumulations and for force majeure is a mockery from the point of view of the economy and leaving the conditional middle class, where the author is still in, in the category of survival from salaries to salaries.
And this is in ideal conditions under which all other market participants believe in government forecasts of 4.5% of the price increase.
You can criticize such "folk" calculations. There are two salaries in the family, so everything is probably not so scary. But add here at least a means of caring for yourself, a sport and a normal updated wardrobe: any self -respecting girl clearly wants to look better than in the dreams of the economic block of government (and the man would also not refuse to look at least “normal”). In addition, in order to get these 200 thousand, in the country you need to pretty much even in the capitals: in Astana and Almaty, the vast majority of ordinary people live (does it live?) For 80-100 thousand rubles a month. In the regions - even less, and significantly. Yes, and a 4.5%increase for everything will be one-time, and so inflation per year only officially-almost 9%.
But the most important thing: such a simultaneous increase in prices for everything, as it seems, kills any development prospect, because you can not even minimally save money and make big plans. How to take housing even in a mortgage and plan a good education for a child in Kazakhstan, if there is nothing to pay for them? It is not surprising that the opinion of businessman Timur Seitmuratov, who predicts a strong leakage of brains from the country - at least those people who can count, is now very noticeable in the information field. “The last departing before departure should not forget the light at the airport to extinguish,” Seytmuratov instantly ironizes.
But the country's authorities have their own calculations, and it is impossible to disagree with part of them, even if you really want to scream from injustice.
On the one hand, tax liberalization of recent years has led to the fact that revenues to the budget have been greatly reduced: entrepreneurs in the retail, for example, learned to crush their businesses so as not to fall under compulsory VAT registration. It looks like this: you make an order in the cafe, but pay two bills - separately for the kitchen and for the bar. In fact, you have one service provider, but for the tax, each business is separate, small, and there is nothing to take from it. And this is still entrepreneurs apply fantasy, but in general you can just not pay taxes for a very long time. According to the results of 11 months of the last year, the country's budget did not receive about 3 trillion tenge taxes (approximately 600 billion rubles), and the total nonsense budget deficit amounted to 9.5 trillion tenge (1.5 trillion rubles).
Add the tenge devaluation here (15% for the last year - from 439 to 530 tenge per dollar at the peak in early January), the fall of oil revenues (and this is the old man Trump did not bring down prices, as he plans), a decrease in the level of foreign investment - and in front of you The painting "Crisis on the threshold."
In addition, Kazakhstan was greatly crushed by the war of sanctions: the republic is very afraid to fall under secondary restrictions, but at the same time depends on trade with Russia.
In the middle of last year, of every ten products imported into Kazakhstan, four were from the main partner in the EAEU. At the same time, they are not produced in the country in the country, for the internal consumer they are expensive, and ceteris paribus, the authorities are dominated by the desire to give all manufactured products for export. The desire is logical, but in early January, this, for example, led to a sharp increase in potatoes (up to 80 rubles per kilogram) and restriction of sales up to five kilograms in some even capital stores.
In parallel with this, Kazakhstan has expenses - primarily social. Right now in the country there are 41 types of various kinds of payments by the state budget. In 2025, it will be necessary to pay 1.2 trillion rubles of socialkeeping: this is 15% more than last year. It is impossible to remove these payments: the authorities of state employees are afraid of the authorities as fire, although the protest potential, in spite of any turmoil, is now low in the country. “The wave of discontent went down since 2022, I don’t think that it will cause another wave today. Alternative forces can use this topic to change the direction of dissatisfaction, but it still won’t reach real mass protests, ”says Tolganai Umbotaliev, political scientist and general director of the Central Asian Democracy Development Fund.
And it is also necessary to build nuclear power plants (or even three ) and repair dozens of CHPs around the country. After a communal accident in Ekibastuz in November 2022, when half a city was sitting with cold batteries almost all winter, housing and communal services are now a particularly painful question for the authorities. And this is not to mention all other communications, roads and railways. About the fact that in the country, especially in the regions, the Soviet housing stock is rapidly wears out, that is, in principle, most houses are afraid to think in the republic so far.
To cover these expenses in conditions of lack of money, the state regularly removed money from the National Fund, which was calculated for future generations of Kazakhstanis. This made it possible to at least partially close the slots in the budget. The money in the national fund is left for 10-15 years, the economists say that in general you can eat it completely, and then live in debt, like the same USA. But there would be an inconsistently and without long prospects in the economic bloc: in fact, the current decision to raise VAT lobbies the same Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, who took the post a year ago, canceled the then plans for a less painful increase in the same tax from 12 to 12 to 12 to 16%. He, along with his office, will remain extreme in case of something.
“The system can play if there are many opponents and discontent is in relation to the government, and the head of state, on the contrary, will express confidence. Then the government may be responsible for discontent. But all these measures were most likely agreed in advance with the president, and the government has already notified Tokaev of possible discontent. Support on his part is more likely to indicate that he is ready for criticism, and I do not exclude that there is a plan of B. I think that under such conditions the president agreed to such unpopular measures, ”says Tolganai Umbotalieva.
The whole trouble is that the authorities of Kazakhstan rush between attempts to try on masks at the same time as a social and market state, but both are poorly obtained.
“It is obvious that there is very little left from the market economy in Kazakhstan. The state plays an overly active role both in business and in regulation, which suppresses market mechanisms and deprives them of the ability to quickly adapt to changes, ”writes Zhanar Suleimenov, a member of the tax alliance, writes in his column for KazTAG. As for social benefits, their number is growing: about 80 thousand people will be added to pensioners alone in 2025, and in general, all 2.5 million older people will need 900 billion rubles. Budgets are cracking at the seams, and fat will be cut off from the skinny middle class.
The middle class in the person of small entrepreneurs already warns of a social catastrophe - maybe not in the form of emigration, but in the form of a wave of bankruptcy, non -payment of loans and, in general, a fall in the standard of living. Kazakhstan Forbes interviewed businessmen what they think about the future increase in taxes. Not a single positive response was printed. “The economy has the so -called butterfly effect, or the elephant effect, when a small event causes great consequences. In this case, the VAT increase will have an “elephant effect”, when a “small” increase in the “total” tax by 8 percentage points will lead to a lot of destruction: a reduction in jobs and purchasing power, a consideration of the economy. We are already barely surviving, and such an increase will be the last blow. The business will begin to die, and the state will not read taxes even more, ”the edition of the entrepreneur Almas Mukhametov quotes .
The authorities preemptively threaten those who will express their dissatisfaction publicly through the Internet. “Increasingly, we are faced with cases of misinformation and media devices aimed at manipulating public opinion, discrediting power, and inciting the growth. This creates serious risks for the security of citizens and stability in the country. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the issue of legislative consolidation of the responsibility of Internet platforms for the spread of destructive content, ”President Tokaev said at the same meeting of the government.
“Discreditation of power” is a very transparent hint, especially considering that the president was simultaneously collapsed with criticism of “public figures” and even “deputies” who “sow the turmoil”. Unless he called it by name.
“Individual citizens turn our country into an object of ridicule. While many foreigners admire our achievements and successes, they talk about them to the whole world, some of our compatriots, including representatives of show business, young people who call themselves public activists, even deputies, draw a reputation of Kazakhstan. This is completely unable to understand, ”Tokaev said sternly. There are many hints:
and the deputies who called Kazakhstan Strafstan-in particular, due to the legislative ban on warming the car in winter for more than five minutes (one deputy already “recognized the error” in terminology);
And to opponents of the translation of the clock belts, which even sued - albeit unsuccessfully - with the authorities;
and on independent journalists and political scientists who regularly criticize the actions of not only the government, but also the President personally;
And even to comedians, one of which - Temirlan Esenbek - was sent for two months in the IVS: formally for inciting the growth (up to 7 years in prison), in fact - for extremely caustic sarcastic statements about the current regime. Kazakhstan - for sad.
It is quite obvious that the authorities sees exclusively “instigators” who are dissatisfied exclusively because he is afraid of the repetition of the January events of 2022, when a social protest due to increasing gas prices grew into riots with two hundred victims throughout the country. The Minister of National Economy Zhumangarin was so directly asked: is he not afraid of the repetition of that tragedy because of such radical reforms in the economy? “But in the January events there was another background. I hope that we will not happen again, ”said Zhumangarin and hastily left a briefing,” the Kazakhstani edition of Ulysmedia remarks caustically.
It is also about the fact that during the January events of 2022, those who are now called old Kazakhstan, that is, representatives of the previous administration and the clan of the first president Nursultan Nazarbayev, took advantage of the social protest. In recent months, the republic is increasingly talking about the risk of the “revenge” of the old team, so even Nazarbayev’s personal trip to Putin in Novo-Ogravo (which, however, wrote separately, they wrote here in the context of a sharp attack of state paranoia.
New potential outrage, due to the actions of the authorities in the economic field, may well be considered by it as the risk of a large explosion, so that they will try to shoot the dissatisfied at the start. The question is how to do it. There are no articles for “discrediting power” in Kazakhstan yet, but the dashing trouble has begun. Critical material about the actions of the government somewhere in social networks can always go through the category of “destructive content”, and META* prohibited representatives in Russia will begin to put pressure in Kazakhstan, and there are not far from the covenants of the neighbors.
What will happen to the authors of such materials themselves can only be presented hypothetically. “The terminology, of course, is negative, demonizes critics. For a long time, politics did not use such vocabulary. I thought that no one in such outdated categories was thinking. But, apparently, the guide was on ordinary people in order not only to convey their vision, but also to form an attitude to opponents of the authorities. Repressions today are directed against those who go outside. If in the framework of the permitted rules, then it will be possible to [criticize]. But, perhaps, this is a signal for alternative media that you need to change the language of criticism, ”says Tolganai Umbotaliev.
The authorities, it seems, recommends everyone else to be silent and engaged in their business. Moreover, it is clearly more to work. The treasury is empty. The lord is dissatisfied.