Tariff blackmail

“Let's see what will burn out of this” - the main principle of Donald Trump's policy

The US President announced the introduction of tariffs for goods from Mexico, Canada and China since Tuesday, February 4. However, at the last moment, tariffs for Mexico and Canada were suspended for a period of 30 days - after telephone conversations of the American president with the leaders of the two countries. As the press secretary of Trump Karolin Livitt announced, in the near future a conversation with Xi Jinping will take place.

On February 1, Trump announced the introduction of tariffs against the three largest trading partners of the United States, saying that he would introduce 25% of the duty on goods from Mexico and Canada, as well as 10% of the duty for Chinese goods. The reason for such decisive measures that the media call the "trade war", the White House called the "insufficient efforts" of the three countries to prevent the penetration of a powerful drug - fentanyl in the United States. In the case of Mexico, it was also about poor border protection from refugees.

The market responded with a drop in shares of securities, experts spoke about the inevitable increase in prices for American families - from gasoline (70 percent of raw oil imports in Canada and Mexico) to fruits and vegetables (90% of avocados eaten in the United States - from Mexico). According to experts, each American family would lose from raising tariffs annually from 1-1.2 thousand dollars.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, in 2022, the United States imported alcoholic beverages from Mexico worth about $ 26 billion - this is, first of all, beer and tequila. The price of cars will inevitably increase, since Mexico and Canada are the largest trading partners in the United States both for finished cars and in spare parts. General Motors shares fell by 2%, the cost of Ford shares fell 1.3%. The Japanese Nikkei index fell 2.5% on Monday, and the pan -European Stoxx 600 fell by about 1%. Not a disaster, but a global decline.

Donald Trump against the backdrop of criticism rested calmly, telling reporters that the American people were ready for sacrifices and would understand him. “In the short term, we may have a little pain, and people understand this, but in the long run the United States was robbed by almost every country in the world,” he told reporters on Sunday. He added: “We have a shortage with almost all countries, not with everyone, but almost. And we are going to change it. This is unfair. That is why we owe 36 trillion dollars; We have a shortage with everyone. ” Canada “uses the United States,” Trump said, calling relationships with a neighboring country “one -way street”.

An increase in tariffs, according to the president, is waiting for both the European Union and other "unscrupulous" partners.

Nevertheless, a trade war with the nearest neighbors was postponed for at least a month. The American stock market immediately reacted to an agreement with Mexico, and then with Canada on the delay of tariffs, the American stock market immediately responded with an increase in shares.

Trump supporters celebrate victory. “Big and strong” insisted, the “younger” partners lost. So now it will continue to be in world politics?

Experts note that the Maga electorate (“make America again the great”) does not even know about the consequences of the introduction of tariffs and about the price for almost every local family.

Mexico and Canada agreed to take additional measures to strengthen the border. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pledged to implement a border control plan worth 1.3 billion dollars to stop the Fentanil flow-to strengthen the border with new helicopters, technologies and staff, to improve coordination with American partners. Trudeau said that he promised to appoint King Fentanil, i.e. A special authorized person to solve this problem. Although very few of this drug is transported across the Canadian border compared to the Mexican - according to the US Customs and Border Service, only about 20 kg was seized there last year, while about a ton on the southern border.

Claudia Sheinbaum, chosen in October last year by President of Mexico, promised to immediately “strengthen the border” from the United States, transferring 10 thousand soldiers of the National Guard there. She also stated that the United States agreed to work to prevent illegal importing weapons into Mexico. It is curious that Trump did not consider it necessary to inform about the obligation to work on the prevention of illegal import of weapons, but confirmed that 10 thousand Mexican soldiers were placed on the border "to stop the flow of fentanil and illegal migrants to our country." Trump did not fail to note that he personally was very much like the president of Mexico (“She is a beautiful woman”).

Next month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Minister of Finance Scott Immotrot and Howard Lutnik, not yet approved by the candidate for the post of minister, will hold negotiations with the Mexican ministers to reach a permanent agreement. On Monday, having announced a deal with Mexico, Trump said that he would talk to the Prime Minister of Canada soon - “We'll see what will happen.”

This phrase - “Let's see what will come of it (burn out)” - migrated from the first presidential term of Trump to the present. Politics for him is continuous bargaining, work on the transaction.

The situation has really changed dramatically, if we recall that between the three countries there was a NAFTA agreement for many years - an agreement on the free trading zone of North America, introduced in 1994. During the first period of Trump, it was changed to a tripartite trade agreement. Shanbaum reminded Trump that he personally signed an agreement on free trade with Mexico with the then President Lopez Dodor. She said that Trump asked how long she would like the tariffs for Mexican goods to be suspended, and she answered “forever” “He insisted on a trade deficit that the United States with Mexico has. I told him that this is not a deficit, that we are commercial partners, and this is the best way to compete with China and other countries, ”Shanbaum noted.

In relations with Canada, which Trump previously sensational proposed to become the 51st state of the United States, Fentaligne, as experts note, this is rather an occasion for a trade war, but not a true reason. Trump and his electoral sponsors-“captains of American business”-want trade and financial expansion. The president told reporters his pool about this: “They do not let our banks. You knew that Canada does not let banks if you think, it is quite amazing. ” Trump added: “Canada is very tough towards oil, to energy. They do not let our agricultural products. In fact, they do not let a lot of things, but we let everything in. This is a one -way street. ”

In the near future, Mexico and Canada are waiting for "the continuation of the Marlezon ballet." The threat of tariff war is by no means removed.

Trudeau called on fellow citizens to read labels in grocery stores and choose “Canadian rye whiskey instead of an American bourbon”, abandon orange juice from Florida and “change summer vacation plans” to visit local attractions.

The prime minister warned that in the coming days and weeks, the country could face difficult times. Shanbaum said that she instructed officials in her government to implement plan B, "which includes tariff and non -tariff measures to protect the interests of Mexico."

China responded to a 10 percent increase in tariffs with return measures from next week. On February 10, the Chinese will introduce a 15% tariff for American coal and liquefied natural gas, as well as 10% for other products, including raw oil, agricultural equipment and pickups. “China resolutely opens against the current US practice and calls on the United States to immediately correct its wrong steps,” the Chinese Ministry of Trade said in a statement. Beijing is going to challenge American tariffs within the WTO.

While there is no agreement of Trump and SI, the trade war remains a reality. Last time, before Trump’s inauguration, they talked so that the ban on the US social network was postponed. A transaction is possible now.

There is a famous joke that if you collect five economists in the room, they will present at least six different points of view. But in this case, most experts indicate the negative consequences of Trump's trade wars. And the fact that his own electorate will not be enthusiastic about the increase in prices - especially for gasoline (from 40 cents to $ 1 per gallon).

Steve Khanke, a professor of economics at Jones Hopkins University and former economic adviser Ronald Reagan, wrote on the X:

“Tariffs are a hidden tax for Americans that deprives them of purchasing power.”

Paul Krugman, Nobel Laureate in Economics:

“Tariffs threaten the world's“ faith in America ”. Rubicon is crossed. Now we know that when the United States sign an agreement on trade or something else, the president will treat him as a simple offer that can be ignored when he wants. ”

Lawrence Summers, former Minister of Finance, President of Harvard University:

“Tariffs are inexplicable and dangerous. They can increase prices, make American companies less competitive, interfere with the creation of jobs, increase unemployment and provoke response measures from other countries that will harm the US economy. ”

Robert Reich, former Minister of Labor under Clinton, Advisor to Obama:

“Trump uses tariffs to demonstrate its power and unpredictability. His actions, as a rule, are aimed at his own benefit. Trump says that he does it for American workers. Nothing can be further from the truth. He does this for himself and for the world oligarchy. ”

Will a new wave of trade wars unfold, or bilateral transactions will put it to the level of threats? One thing is absolutely understandable: making forecasts for Trump is an ungrateful thing. He himself does not know what will happen, where his improvisation leads, from which he can easily abandon the next minute. As they say, "let's see what will burn out of this."