Politics "Raspberry jackets"

Russia and the United States arranged a new exchange of prisoners. Why is it beneficial to both parties and will a truce come closer in Ukraine?

Russia liberated and transferred the United States to the ex-employee of the American embassy in Moscow, Mark Vogel, convicted of 14 years for “drug smuggling”. Washington calls the deal a “exchange”. According to the American media, Russia will be returned to Alexander Vinnik, who is under arrest in the United States on charges of laundering money up to $ 9 billion.

Why is this deal profitable for Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump? What Russia and the United States want to demonstrate it and how it can contribute to negotiations in the end of the war in Ukraine-Novyevropa asked political scientists.

Update 12.02
The White House announced the closure of the case and the imminent liberation of Russian Alexander Vinnik.

In addition, the authorities of Belarus freed three political prisoners: the journalist of the Belarusian “Radio Liberty” Andrei Kuznechik, activist and many children Elena Movshuk, as well as a US citizen who wished to remain an unknown.

Who was returned to the USA

On February 11, Russia liberated the ex-employee of the US Embassy in Moscow and the teacher of the Anglo-American school of Mark Vogel, sentenced to 14 years in prison in the case of the acquisition and storage of drugs (part 2 of article 228), as well as their smuggling (part 3 of article 229.1) .

The reason for the detention of the teacher was cannabis and hash oil, discovered in his baggage in August 2021, when he and his wife flew from New York to Moscow. According to police, narcotic substances were hidden in cartridges for electronic cigarettes and packaging from contact lenses. Vogel explained that he had taken 17 grams of medical marijuana, which the doctor prescribed to him: he needed it to facilitate the consequences of surgical intervention. The teacher allegedly did not know that in Russia it is prohibited in Russia.

The negotiator from the United States was the special support of Donald Trump in the Middle East Steve Whitkoff. On Tuesday, his plane flew to Moscow. Initially, the Russian authorities claimed that this was a technical flight and that the Kremlin does not have information about the arrival of Whitkoff to Moscow. But then it became known that Whitkoff met with Vladimir Putin and took from Moscow an American teacher convicted in Russia.

The administration of the American president said that "they have agreed on an exchange that shows a positive attitude from Russia and is a sign" that the States and the Russian Federation "are moving in the right direction to complete the war in Ukraine."

On February 12, Trump accepted Vogel in the White House. The meeting was broadcast live. The US President, to the question of the terms of the transaction, called the exchange “very fair, very reasonable” and announced that on February 12 “another American will be returned,” but he was not named.

- Russia treated us very kindly. Actually, I hope that this is the beginning of a relationship in which we can end this war. <...> And we appreciate what President Putin did,

- said Trump.

Vogel himself called Trump and his team “heroes”, and also stated that Putin “showed great generosity and political correctness”, pardoning him. Washington calls the incident “exchange”, but in the message of the White House it was not specified whether the United States issued any of the Russians enclosed in the country.

On the same day, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that a citizen of the Russian Federation, who is now in an American prison, will return to Russia in exchange for the liberation of Fogel. His name in the Kremlin was also not named.

“When a citizen is in Russia, then his name will be known then,” Peskov answered the journalist, who asked about the possible transfer of Russian Alexander Vinnik , who was accused of laundering money through a crypto -country.

Whom the US is returning to Russia

The fact that in exchange for the US fake will free Vinnik, during February 12, many American media reported with links to sources, including ABC , New York Post and Reuters .

Vinnik may be controlled by a wallet with 80 thousand bitcoins, journalist Andrei Zakharov notes ( he wrote the book “Crypt”, and Vinnik in it is one of the main characters. - Ed. ): According to his estimates, this is eight billion dollars, or 2% of the annual income of the federal budget of the Russian Federation. According to the US authorities, Vinnik washed up to nine billion dollars.

Vinnik is one of the leaders of the BTC-E cryptocurrency exchange. He was detained in Greece in 2017 and extradited in the United States in 2022. He is accused of promoting extortion, theft of personal data and drug trafficking. In 2024, Vinnik found himself guilty of conspiracy to launder money. It is expected that the verdict will be issued at the end of 2025.

According to Peskov, such agreements “are unlikely to be able to become a turning point, but at the same time, by grain, these are certain steps to build up the same mutual trust that is now at the lower point.”

Update 12.02 21:00 Moscow
The White House confirmed that the United States will free Alexander Vinnik.

Why is this deal profitable for both the USA and Russia?

During the pre-election campaign, Trump promised to solve all problems in a quick, effective, strict way, political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky notes in a conversation with the New Evrop. Now the US President demonstrates that he is able to achieve the liberation of an American citizen from prison in Russia in the first month of his term and on the first attempt. At the same time, the Russian side should expect when someone is given to her in response.

- For Trump, this is a winning position. Firstly, he shows himself as an effective negotiator: he knocked on the table with his fist, and Russia fulfilled his requirements. Secondly, he confirms that he does not lie when he says that he has contacts with the Kremlin. And thirdly, it shows that he is negotiating in Ukraine and that, perhaps, he can also effectively resolve everything, and in American interests in the first place, and not in someone else, ”says the political scientist.

At the same time, it is also important for Putin to show that he is negotiable, can wait and concede, Preobrazhensky emphasizes.

- But what happened in reality, we do not know. And, most likely, of course, it was a mutually beneficial story, as a result of which Russia may have received something else, ”says the interlocutor of Novy-Europe.

Fogel was taken hostage to replenish the exchange fund, and Trump “perfectly understood it,” political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin notes in a conversation from Novo-Europe. According to him, for the sake of the beginning of a ceasefire in Ukraine, Trump decided on the first move - and made it "quite successfully."

- The word "exchange" sounded. Probably Putin received something in return and bargained. What exactly - we do not know for sure yet, - Oreshkin agrees.

According to Preobrazhensky, both Putin and Trump, it is important that they can conduct such negotiations closed. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that there are always a “public” and “closed” side in negotiations and that Ukraine needs to use the “hard diplomacy that we used in the world in the past”:

- The traditional diplomacy of the Cold War was that at first no one knows anything, and then suddenly everyone would find out that the event took place. And now the whole structure of international diplomacy is rapidly returning to the formats of the 70s.

At the same time, Putin and Trump show a high degree of trust: Putin was ready to convey to Trump an American citizen and calmly wait for the United States to fulfill its promises. In the Soviet period, the United States and the USSR did not do this, they exchanged immediately, because the level of trust was zero, ”the interlocutor of the New-Europe argues.

The senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center for the Study of Russia and Eurasia, Alexander Baunov, also agrees with him: in his telegram channel, he notes that the practice of exchanges in itself looks like a repetition of the customs of the Cold War for Moscow when Russia was one of the poles of the bicapolar world:

- This raises the prestige of the Kremlin in its own eyes, and therefore the practice of exchanges will continue. <...> Putin is trying to exploit Trump’s desire to be successful and gives him the first success in the Russian direction, ”the expert says.

In addition, the transaction that has taken place is a way to find communication points with the United States, adds Oreshkin:

- For Trump, this exchange is also important, because in the eyes of voters he demonstrates his productivity: he took, solved a specific task, saved an American citizen. Now this story will be inflated in the media in the context that he is a humanist, a “specific kid”, agreed with Putin and saved the American. Honor and praise, ”says the political scientist.

How will “exchange” affect the negotiation process in the war in Ukraine?

The transaction that has taken place shows that the parties “probe” positions and form a negotiation climate on the Russian war in Ukraine. It is possible that this is a sign that the exchange procedures are being prepared right now and there are trading between Russia and the United States-including, regarding the Ukrainian question, Oreshkin emphasizes in a conversation with Novo-Europe:

- This is an obvious signal for Ukraine that the time of Joe Biden is over. Biden, unlike Trump, is a person who has some ideas about decency. This imposed on him, from the point of view of the Trump voter, unnecessary restrictions. Biden said: not a word about Ukraine without Ukraine.

And Trump does not limit himself at all and acts from the standpoint “I am an American I want, and I agree with that, I’m talking about what I want.” In this case, "I say - and I will talk - with Putin about Ukraine without Ukraine."

Trump demonstrates freedom from the informal obligations that Biden took upon himself, ”said Oreshkin.

According to the political scientist, the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky depends on the United States than Putin. Therefore, the interlocutor of Novo-Europe believes, the United States is many times more than levers of pressure on Kyiv than to Moscow-starting from money and ending with the arms and support of NATO. For Zelensky, the situation is much more complicated: it will be extremely difficult for him to defend his positions, Oreshkin argues: he can only refer to moral categories, asking how to concede the “aggressor” and “occupier”:

“They can answer him [Zelensky] in the logic of raspberry jackets and say:“ We owe you nothing, we gave you so much that we will also remove rare -earth metals for this. ” Zelensky, in essence, in Trump’s terminology, has no negotiation resources at all, because moral and ethical things do not affect Trump, and European security problems, in his opinion, should solve exclusively Europe, says Oreshkin.

At the same time, according to the political scientist, Trump will put pressure on Putin, claiming that he “wants too much”, and “how much will be allowed to take, and he will take it,” the interlocutor of the “New-Europe” reasoned:

- Trump will sit with Putin, “grind”, listen to his point of view, then he listens to Ukraine from top to bottom and dictates its conditions to it. As a result, he will find a common, mutually unsatisfactory, but inevitable point of contact,

which will be dissatisfied with both Putin and Zelensky, but which Trump will be pleased. By the way, this is productive, because the compromise differs from everything else that does not suit either those or others, ”Oreshkin summed up.

According to political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky, it is impossible to unambiguously say that Ukraine will have to go to more concessions than Russia, even taking into account the current weaker position of Kyiv.

- Now there are negotiations on how negotiations will begin. There are no negotiations on how the war will end. At the same time, Putin denies in every possible way, rests and says that he will not speak with Zelensky. And Trump draws into the process it is Russia, including through the exchange. Zelensky, on the contrary, wants negotiations. The more Putin resists, the more Trump is annoyed. Therefore-we cannot say this, but theoretically-the later the process will begin, the more likely it is that they will be more likely in favor of Ukraine, the interlocutor of Novo-Europe said.