Jealousy, ambition and Ramadan

Middle Eastern autocracies compete for the right to reconcile Russia and Ukraine

The main diplomatic event of the past week is negotiations between Russia and the USA in Riyadh. The meeting of delegations took place in the Royal Palace of ad-Diria in the north-west of Riyadh and lasted more than four hours.

It was attended by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, his American colleague Marco Rubio, as well as senior Saudi officials, including Prince Faisal Foreign Minister Ben Farhan. And if the European world was concentrated on the figures of Lavrov and Rubio, then the Arab world applauded Saudi Arabia as a direct participant in the settlement of the main European conflict.

The acceptance of negotiations in Er-Riyad in most Arab states was regarded as confirmation of the growing diplomatic role of Saudi Arabia in the international arena. The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, Oman, Kuwait and League of the Arab states warmly approved her initiative, calling an important step to the international dialogue and stability.

The official representative of the Katar Ministry of Foreign Affairs Majid al-Ansari emphasized that the Doha welcomes the efforts of Saudi Arabia to bring the positions of world powers closer. In turn, the authorities of Oman supported Er-Riyad in his desire to promote dialogue as a means of resolving crises. The UAE expressed the hope that negotiations would help strengthen the interaction between Moscow and Washington, and the League of the Arab states noted that the initiative of Saudi Arabia is "a significant Arabic contribution to efforts to achieve peace around the world."

Jordan, who had not yet finally recovered from Trump’s proposal to resettle Palestinians there, also positively appreciated negotiations between Russia and the USA and expressed the hope that their results would help strengthen international security and stability. The official statement of the country's Foreign Ministry emphasizes the important role of Saudi Arabia in organizing these negotiations in the framework of its "unceasing efforts to ensure a fair and comprehensive world."

However, the “fair and comprehensive world” is a very relative category, and negotiations in Riyadh are the most striking example of this.

This meeting aroused a gaze, jealous interest in Turkey - after all, until recently, Ankara played an active role in mediation between Moscow and Kiev and has already proved her ability to achieve specific results even in an acute conflict. Back in March 2022, in Antalya, Türkiye held a meeting between the ministers of the foreign affairs of Russia and Ukraine - Sergey Lavrov and Dmitry Kuleboy, these were one of the first negotiations at a high level after the start of the conflict. Although the meeting did not lead to decisive results, she showed that Ankara is able to play the role of a neutral intermediary between the parties.

Among its further significant initiatives, the so -called “grain transaction”, signed in July 2022: this agreement allowed Ukraine to export grain through the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and South, despite the ongoing military operations.

Ankara was not limited only to mediation when signing this agreement, but also took responsibility for monitoring its implementation, organizing the inspection of the courts. However, in 2023, Russia left the transaction, indicating that the project ceased to be purely humanitarian, turning into a commercial, while the interests of Russia suffered.

Türkiye played a key role in organizing one of the largest exchanges prisoners in September 2022, in the framework of which dozens of military personnel were liberated, including the commanders of the Azov battalion. The released remained in Turkey until July 2023, which emphasized the important role of Ankara in humanitarian issues related to the conflict.

And at present, Türkiye continues to play a key role in ensuring the safety of shipping in the Black Sea, taking a number of measures to reduce risks, such as clearance and creation. Ankara seeks to preserve the Black Sea as a safe zone, as this has a direct impact on its economic and geopolitical interests. The intermediary participation of Turkey in the dialogue between the warring states has repeatedly increased the political weight of Erdogan as a politician. And he does not intend to leave the role of one of the most influential world leaders.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia actively joined the peace process. Er-Riyad, who does not content with a more modest role of the rich raw material power, seeks to establish itself as a global diplomatic center. In addition to purely reputational benefits, Saudi Arabia also pursues pragmatic goals. The current mediation of Riyadh considers as an opportunity to influence world events affecting the stability of global markets, and especially the energy sector. In addition, participation in negotiations opens up completely different prospects for Saudi Arabia for building strategic relations with both the West and Russia and China. These are new opportunities for trade, investment and expansion of economic capabilities.

In other words, the position of the intermediary in resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine turned out to be very winning for the states of the Middle Eastern region, which had not recently not declared serious players in politics of this level.

Formally, the Turkish authorities also supported the meeting in Riyadh, but President Erdogan made it clear that he did not intend to just give in to the battle. While representatives of Russia and the United States met in Riyadh, he arranged a personal audience to the President of Zelensky, who did not consider it possible to accept an invitation from Saudi Arabia the day after the meeting of Russia and America took place there. (Zelensky himself was in the Arab Emirates at that time.)

The UAE is another Arab state that demonstrated the rapid diplomatic growth in the current circumstances. In Abu Dhabi, Zelensky met an extremely warm welcome. He discussed the economic interaction of the two countries and the exchange of prisoners with President of the UAE, Sheikh Muhammad Ibn Zaid Al Nahayan: the Emirates, as you know, actively participated and continue to participate in the exchange process.

Well, after a friendly embrace with Sheikh, Zelensky flew to Turkey.

The meeting of Zelensky and Erdogan passed behind closed doors, but in the statement made after this meeting, Erdogan did not fail to emphasize that it was Türkiye that remains a “perfect platform” for Russian-American negotiations.

President Trump apparently did not hear him, announcing the new round of negotiations, which will take place in Riyadh already on Tuesday. However, it is too early to consider the Turkish map in peace negotiations to be a bat: abolishing his official diplomatic visit to Saudi Arabia and meeting instead with Erdogan, the President of Ukraine in the most unequivocally demonstrated that he did not consider the Er-Riyada site as acceptable for himself.

However, to find a decision on the choice of intermediary for final negotiations, the participants of the time now: during Ramadan, none of the Muslim countries will take up the solution to the problem of planetary scale. Meanwhile, less than a week remains before the start of the sacred month.