Enough!

Polls of Russians prove that the majority stands for the world, the conditions of which are worth negotiating after the ceasefire

Social question

We will be honest from Russian society, for a very long time, it depends on the country, which is all the more beyond its borders. It just exists. He goes to work, then to the store, sometimes to the clinic, cinema or museum, but still more often along the trajectory the house - work - house.

Pays taxes and rent. Watching the news on the TV and nods. Or alternative news on the Internet - and also nods. He does not discuss what he saw with strangers, for there is no need. From time to time, it shows a fraction of social activity in accordance with his views: sometimes sends the money to help sick children or the front, volunteer in an animal shelter or writes letters to political prisoners.

There are no elections and is not expected, public events are minimized and not encouraged. Find out for sure that in this semi-retail socio-social state, a Russian or a Russian woman thinks and wants, damn hard. Only the lazy has not flooded sociologists who still continue to conduct research and try to recognize their opinions on a variety of issues, including the main ones.

Many believe that in political regimes such as ours, with his dragon repressive legislation and cruel election enforcement, the traditional sociology of polls either shows nothing, or shows very distorted data. People are afraid to tell the truth and respond as expected as safe. Therefore, they say from different angles - you can not pay attention to the results of the surveys or take them into account only as illustrative material. Or take into account only the dynamics of changes in repeated surveys, which may show something.

But there is another opinion. According to him,

If you try, if you ask more accurately, accurately and methodically more twist, you still get to the bottom of the results that are closer to the real picture, and therefore they can be taken into account.

The third point of view is that sociology is also diverse, and with such a complex, snicker and frightened society, like ours, we must work more tender. Not through frontal polls, but more refined, albeit labor -cost instruments: deep interviews, small groups included in observation. And then everything can happen. Truth, most likely, no matter how trite, lies, as always, somewhere at the crossroads of these points of view. From what follows: if you really need to get an answer to a question or on some topic, then you need to try to use or use all possible methods and tools. And this is exactly what we need now, because we again, like a year, and two and three ago, want to know: do the Russian worlds want?

Everyone wanted the world

On the third anniversary, everyone suddenly wanted this very world in Ukraine. Relatively suddenly, of course: on the one hand, there was no particularly talking about any trucks as something real, in the rare public speeches of the leaders of the countries, it was more often mentioned that he made reconciliation impossible than what could contribute to him . On the other hand, Donald Trump even loudly announced at the start of his election campaign that he would allow everything between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours, and everyone began to guess how he would try to crank it.

Trump wins, inauguration passes, and one way or another the US president is already calling his Russian counterpart, and then to Ukraine, someone agrees with something, and someone categorically does not, meetings begin, delegations fly to the Middle East, Special supporters are rushed through Europe, proposals are made, counterclaims are set, the speed of events goes off scale. What will this lead and whether it will tell, time will tell. In the meantime, politicians and people around the world, as enchanted, are observing the unfolding peacekeeping sight, from which everyone takes out different, not always encouraging, but at least the sequence of the nearest alleged steps, everyone understood: ceasefire, freezing the conflict, concluding a peace treaty. Absolutely everyone understands that these three actions (although they are all about the world) are filled with completely different content, meanings, realization methods and consequences.

Interestingly, the Russians even noticed this earlier and understood. We regularly over the past year in our groups of the “Laboratory of the future“ Novaya Gazeta ”asked participants about reconciliation as a whole, about when they were waiting for it and what it could be. I heard the most diverse opinions: from “the world does not exist” to “we must put it out immediately”, from “to the victorious end” to “urgently we must stop everything”, from “we will not reach Lisbon, let's not stop” to “bayonets in the ground, Where are they standing and home. ” These opinions were scattered randomly in almost all groups and categories of citizens - from pensioners to students, from housewives to lawyers, from engineers to doctors.

Two characteristics were clearly knocked out, which distinguished those who for the speedy world: there were much more among those who, as a whole, not with the greatest sympathy belong to the trajectory that our country has risen, and among those who still have not yet Adult children. In general, these conversations about the world were mostly general and very abstract.

Recent data

But in our last groups, in this January, when we started talking about when and how a special military operation should or may end, almost all in different groups were immediately stopped and asked: “And what do you mean? The world is the world completely? Or a truce? Or a ceasefire? " We were clearly made to understand: in society there was an understanding that a certain abstract world directly from the air and there would be no right now that this complex multi -stage road leads to it and that people see and understand the differences at the time to immediately stop military operations, and that To sign something long-term about the world and the further structure of relations between countries. The general opinion was unequivocal: it was necessary to stop military operations immediately, and even those who generally fully support what began in February 22nd think. Apparently, they understood something in three years ...

About what to do next, opinions dispersed.

Some of our interlocutors believe that it is necessary to conclude a truce by the type of fact that in the 50s it was enclosed in Korea, dividing it into northern and southern, and leave everything as it is along the line where military operations will be discontinued. Others believe that the ceasefire should assume the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops to where the new borders of Russia are drawn, according to the new version of the Constitution. Still others preferred that Russian troops move to the line from which they moved forward on the morning of February 24, three years ago.

Almost everyone converges on the fact that during the ceasefire it would be worth it to call some peacekeepers to the line in contact so that they should be monitored. Well, then - the road to a peace treaty.

Here, too, a whole range of opinions was presented: the contract must be concluded quickly, on the principle of “kui iron, so far hotly”, or, conversely, do not rush, we need to call solid intermediaries, call up a peaceful conference and think about everything so that no longer has to be necessary To fight, or not to rush with this at all, to pull for as long as possible - maybe 10 years and more, because a lot can change, and it will be seen there.

At the same time, almost everyone believes that this is a truce and the world itself will be difficult, in places it is impossible, the positions of two sides are very different for today.

Focus groups

The participants of the mini-groups, which we gathered in order to talk about their expectations from how the so violently began presidency of Donald Trump, also spoke about the same. Of course, we are talking about his peacekeeping efforts. Of all that our respondents spoke about, three directions of thought seemed important.

• Firstly, everyone agreed that the way military operations in Ukraine have recently been going on, even shows those who are not particularly following them, that everything is moving in any side at any side extremely slowly, nor One of the parties does not see reserves and intentions to change this situation. There is a feeling of a clinch from which the exit is not visible, except for the ceasefire and the beginning of negotiations. One of the participants in the conversation, an engineer of a large private company, a man of pre -retirement age, noted:

“It's already a couple of months as it became clear that either something unexpected will happen, or the case will go to some kind of truce. Even if it weren’t for Trump, I would have to come up with something, because everything got both of those and these. I don’t look at the military news every day-rather, once a week I look at what and how, and recently in my mode it was clear that everything was trembling for some kilometers back and forth ... And there people die for These kilometers and landing ... It is necessary to stop it all both humanly, and for any other reasons that are there in the highest areas. ”

• Secondly, everyone agreed that it is easy to say “to end fire”, but it would be difficult to do it, and it is even more difficult to go to both sides that arrange both sides. Almost everyone believes that it will be difficult to ensure that the ceasefire will be difficult directly at the front, where provocations and some other surprises are possible. And in order to be sure that nothing of the kind will happen, a certain peacekeeping contingent must be entered on the distinction line. But there may be difficulties at the political level, because the parties will not agree to any peacekeepers. There is no confidence in the Oon blue helmets, and the list of countries that Ukraine and Russia consider acceptable are very different.

It will also be with negotiations on a truce: the huge efforts of intermediaries will be required to reduce the requirements and expectations of the parties to any acceptable common denominator. Student Linguist of one of Moscow universities, however, is sure that everything will be long and difficult, but there is no alternative to negotiations:

“Everyone is tired, here and there everyone is tired. Look, no one else is satisfied with any rallies, no bravura events. Even all sorts of posters and posters about his as if it had become a little less. Or I stopped noticing them - also a sign of fatigue. What scares the most is that both Putin and Zelensky will be applied, and it will be impossible to move them out of place. They both need the same territory, and you will not turn out here so that everyone is happy. But I believe that there are options, some kind of compromise, albeit not perfect to stop shooting now. Trump there either Europeans, or someone else let them promise them from three boxes, but anything, if only they sign, stop shooting. If the whole world is now falling on this topic, then everything will work out. And then, maybe no one will want to shoot again. ”

Regarding this very “again”, a lot of additional conversations turned out. As far as all participants agree that the ceasefire is necessary and shaken, they doubt that it will be possible to conclude a truce or even a full -fledged peace treaty on such conditions that this will prevent the resumption of the conflict. And this seems to everyone as an important task as, in fact, the cessation of hostilities. Even those who, in principle, restrainedly positively or neutrally refers to the fact that somewhere there is a special military operation now, and sees some meaning in it, believe that the second time serious military operations there is bad, and that is, and that It is necessary to somehow avoid, somehow it is to prevent it.

In addition to humanistic, the arguments are understandable here: the country is exhausted economically and emotionally, that everything has been dragged on for three years, hits the moral spirit and faith that the variable goals declared by power in Ukraine can be achieved by military means. And that means, perhaps, it is worth reconsider these goals for now and in principle. The young Muscovite programmer summed up:

“Yes, it is very important that shooting at the front stops as soon as possible, and even more important - albeit with a creak, but everyone to sit down at the negotiating table. And there, already at this table, or directly, or through intermediaries, allow all that has led to all this. Let them yell there on each other, let the Ukrainians present accounts, and let ours explain what they needed from all this, but the main thing for me is that they prescribe there that it all ends for real, that no one will come up with Repeat this again in a year, or three, or five. Because I personally just get tired of being afraid and wait for some next horror every next day. ”

Other polls

The fact that the Russians as a whole want exactly the same are also showing the results of the very surveys with which we started the conversation. About whether they want military operations in Ukraine, they are asked by different research centers and groups, and they are asked regularly. From the latest data it is clear that the end of hostilities and the transition to peaceful negotiations steadily wants from approximately half to two -thirds of Russians. Here is the November study of the RUSSIAN FILD center: 36%for continuing its own; In order to start a dialogue about the world, - 56%. A little earlier, in September 2024, the Chronicle project shows almost the same results: 49% of Russians would support the withdrawal of troops and peace negotiations with Ukraine without achieving their goals, and 33% would not support such a decision. When choosing between the new mobilization and the conclusion of the world, the world would choose the world (49%), only 29% - another mobilization. 63% of Russians would like a peace agreement with Ukraine with mutual concessions in the next year.

“Levada Center”*, which regularly asks the question of whether it is worth continuing military operations or will it be more correct to move on to peaceful negotiations, fixes the following dynamics: in August 2024, to move on to negotiations, there was 50%, for continuing his own - 41%; In November 2024, for the world-57%, in order to continue everything as it is,-35%, and just recently, in January 2025, in order to move to the world,-61%, and for the time To prevent it from ending, 31%.

The trend towards negotiations and the world is evident. It would be extremely interesting if the VTsIOM, which stubbornly reports on the level of his support in society every February (according to him, is always supported by about 65–68% of respondents, and approximately 19–25% against) gathered with forces and also gathered and also He asked his respondents a question not about supporting hostilities, but about the support of a possible world. But since he doesn’t do this yet, we decided to conduct a survey ourselves on the social networks of Novaya Gazeta, asking readers and viewers the question: “Do you think that in the military operations in Ukraine it is necessary to immediate ceasefire with the subsequent start of negotiations?”

We asked a similar question to our subscribers in the telegram channel in July last year, when the Nobel laureates made an open letter about the ceasefire. Then the survey was massively attacked by bots, which was recorded by technical services, and more than 10 thousand votes were thrown over the answer option that insists on continuing military operations. This did not help them a lot. Ultimately, 86% of the participants spoke in order to cease fire, 13% against this.

In this February, the result among readers of the Telegram channel “New” turned out to be almost the same: for the cessation of hostilities and the transition to negotiations-85%, 15%-against this. Botes were running back again, again they were thrown back. What is curious, they came running after the colleagues began to actively promote the survey, and they threw it exactly as much to get the same proportion observed in other polls: about a third to continue their, two -thirds against.

On our channel on YouTube, 91% of respondents spoke out for a truce, 9% against. Among our subscribers-participants, it was predictably more inclined towards the world: 96% by 4%. Nevertheless, many knowledge is not only many sorrows. Also common sense, and humanity.

... If you look at all these results in the aggregate, you can see that, for all the difference in the details, the overall trend is evident, regardless of who explores, as explores and what he asks. A significant majority of Russians want shooting at the front to stop, that really “bayonet to the ground” - and then negotiations that would provide, if not the world, then at least a truce. For three years, something became clear to many and many. Therefore, so many people in Russia say today, answers, thinks, writes: "Enough." And every morning people check the news in anticipation of peace.

*Entered by the Russian authorities in the register of "foreign Agents".