"Diminate" Ukraine

The reasons for the information confrontation between Kyiv and Washington: how the relations of countries with the advent of Trump have changed. And what is the mission of KELLLOL

In Kyiv, KELLLOL waited more than a month. The expectation began even before Trump’s official entry into the post, from the very moment when it became known that his representative in Ukraine would be an 80-year-old general. For some time, Keith Kellogs became a top-pawn in Ukrainian media, his biography was discussed, his rather frequent interviews and statements on various television channels, in which some signals were looking for about how his “special conference” would be. For for some reason it was believed that it was Kellogue that would form the position of Trump in relation to Ukraine.

The alleged time of the visit was not clearly articulated, but there were various assumptions, and when they were not justified, there were objective explanations for this. Kellogue did not come to the inauguration, as was expected at first? So he could not make a visit, because it is prohibited by American law. Kellog Kyiv did not visit at the end of January? So this is because he first needed to listen to the opinion of European partners. And when Kellog finally gathered in Ukraine, it turned out that this visit was almost immediately lost in the whirlpool of a tough Ukrainian-American confrontation, and to be honest, Ukrainian media and experts were clearly not up to Kelllog.

The reasons for the dislike and its triggers

The general background of Ukrainian-American relations during the visit of the American special representative was really very specific for such diplomatic contacts. In parallel, a whole chain of high-profile and conflicting statements related to the telephone conversation of Trump and Putin, a meeting of the American and Russian delegation in Riyadh, and Trump’s stiff statements regarding Zelensky and the attempts of the Ukrainian president, support this ping-pong of mutual reproaches. That is why the results and significance of KELLOL's visit and the results of his meetings with the Ukrainian leadership should be evaluated not only against the background, but also in the context of all this information confrontation.

Long before the election of Trump, it was obvious that the leader of the Republicans did not like the Ukrainian president, if not anymore, he has a personal hostility to him.

In the formation of such a personified attitude, the key role was obviously played by two factors, both of which have a very indirect attitude to Zelensky itself.

The first factor is that the reason for the beginning of the impeachment procedure during the first cadence of Trump was his pressure on Zelensky, or rather, the request for a certain “service” in the investigation of the corruption activity of the son of Biden, Hunter, in Ukraine.

The second is the close cooperation of Kyiv with the Biden administration. Of course, Ukraine simply had no other choice, because without the help of the United States, the resistance of aggression would look very problematic. However, for Trump, any complimentation of Biden is an enemy marker. And here, too, we can talk about the deeply personified hostile attitude of Trump to his political opponent.

That is, the general prospect of cooperation through Trump - Zelensky initially promised very serious difficulties. But it is unlikely that anyone expected such a stream of tough statements collapsed on Zelensky last week. What became their trigger?

Option 1. The failure of negotiations in Riyad

If you take this explanation as a basis, then the situation looked as follows. The American delegation tried to probe the position of Russians on the issue of resolving the war and at the same time make it clear that she expects mutual concessions and compromises. At least in terms of ceasefire. This did not happen. Moreover, already informing about his telephone conversation with Putin, Trump in a series of complimentary assessments of his interlocutor nevertheless admitted that he received a refusal from Putin to stop the fighting. Later, commenting on negotiations in Saudi Arabia, the State Department explained them approximately in this way: "Negotiations on how to build negotiations in the future."

Therefore, having realized that the cavalry fiber will not be able to end the war, moreover, having not received any hints of concessions from the Russians, Trump publicly, loudly and clumsily made Zelensky guilty of unwillingness to go to negotiations and clearly outlined his demand - elections in Ukraine. For it is Zelensky, according to Trump, - the main obstacle to the conclusion of the world.

Option 2.

Perhaps there were no surprises in the adamant of Russians for the Americans. And they themselves did not insist on any concessions to Ukraine. For they have already agreed on something backstage. Moreover, information about the preliminary non -public contacts of the Americans and Russians in Geneva has already leaked to the media, and probably during these contacts both sides found out mutual positions in advance.

Then all this looks like a rather cynical deal. Moreover, speaking about the “failure” in Riyadh, we mean the “failure” of the interests of Ukraine. Talking about the resumption of diplomatic missions, some signals about the joint development of the resources of the Arctic and the admission of American business to Russian minerals-

All this testifies to mutual warming, within the framework of which the question of Ukraine, which seems to be considered central, turns into a hindrance for this planning American-Russian cooperation.

Therefore, it became necessary in this way - as an obstacle - and to present publicly Ukraine and its president. But, of course, not as an obstacle to the upcoming large transaction with the Russians, which remains behind the scenes, but as an obstacle to the process of peaceful settlement. Hence the same conclusion - elections.

Option 3. Zelensky Refusal conclude a “deal” by Ukrainian resources

With what frequency the agreement on the subsoil is repeated by both Trump himself and his entourage, indicates the significance of this factor in unfolding the information confrontation. In general, the very history of this deal is somewhat surrealistic in nature. First of all, because its subject itself (which Ukraine should provide from its natural and other resources) was very blurry, changed with kaleidoscopic speed and still remains uncertain.

Zelensky was the first to propose such an agreement, entering it into one of the points of his “Victory Plan”. It was about the “critical resources” of Ukraine (uranium, titanium, lithium and others), investing in their production and development and joint use of economic potential. As we already wrote , this item was designed specifically for Trump's interest, which raises a commercial benefit above all the values ​​combined.

Indeed, Trump reacted to this, first announcing his intention to conclude a deal on Ukrainian “rare -earth” metals. In Ukraine, they responded positively, because the details of Trump's proposal were still unknown.

However, Ukrainian experts were somewhat lost in conjecture what was meant by “rare -earth metals”, because there are not many of them in Ukraine and their mining requires huge investments. As a result, they agreed that Trump had in mind those very “critical minerals” - lithium, titanium and others. But when the US Minister of Finance Scott Bessant brought the draft agreement to Kyiv, it turned out that this was not expected in Kyiv, and the “hook” for Trump turned into a “trap” for Zelensky.

Blackmail

The document, which brought the Bessant, was no longer covered by half mythical rare -earth metals, but mineral, oil and gas resources, and in addition, ports and other infrastructure of Ukraine. According to him, the United States and Ukraine create a special investment fund, which will have the exclusive right to establish the method, selection criteria, terms and conditions for all future licenses and projects. The United States gets 50% of regular income received by Ukraine from resources, as well as 50% of the financial value of all new licenses issued to third parties for future monetization of resources.

At the same time, first of all, Ukraine does not receive any security guarantees: the American administration said that the US investment in itself-this is them. Secondly, all income from rent will go to the fund, which is proposed to create (now the state receives them), and it will also belong to the exclusive right to develop new minerals. And thirdly, the accentuate for this agreement Trump was even more egregious-as a repayment of the debt. Allegedly, with its help, the United States will be able to return $ 500 billion as Ukrainian debt for American assistance received by Ukraine during the war. Although it was gratuitous help.

The Ukrainian authorities were subjected to incredible blackmail , designed to force Kiev to sign this document. Bessant gave Zelensky only an hour to get acquainted with him. Various conditions were alternately put on dependence on the signing of the document-from the abolition of a meeting with Vice President Di Vincess in Munich to the threat of the Starlink’s disconnection and generally starting the progress on the track of peace negotiations.

In fact, the end of the war began not to clearly link with the conclusion of this resource-infrastructure transaction, but, it seems, the transaction itself became the main goal of the American administration, pushing the issue of peaceful settlement to the background.

Rebuff

Zelensky did not sign this version of the agreement, and now it is being finalized by both parties. What will be the final option is still unknown. The contradictory information that is expressed in the media is accompanied by no less contradictory statements by Trump and his associates.

Elon Musk hastened to refute the messages of the Starlink for Ukraine. However, the matter here is not in the goodwill of the billionaire-technocrat, but that the ensuring the connection of Stalink is carried out through terminals, which Poland has acquired for Ukraine, which continues to pay a subscriber fee for them, so this shutdown threatens the mask with numerous claims.

On the other hand, according to some sources, the new version of the agreement is even more tough. The Ukrainian edition of The New Voice of Ukraine wrote that “the new version from American partners proposes to fix 100% of the future fund for the United States and distribute the parties of the parties in the fund in the ratio of two to one, where the Ukrainian side makes two -thirds future production from prey, and the American side, and the American side The side is a third that has already been provided in the form of weapons. The American side proposes to set the amount of the fund at the level of $ 500 billion. The agreement covers not only mineral fossils, but also gas and oil. Future income from ports is not included in the agreement. ”

Nevertheless, Steve Bessant in the article for Financial Times tried to connect the new version of the document (or one of them) with the consequences positive for Ukraine - namely, the post -war reconstruction and prevention of corruption: “The conditions of our partnership provide that they provide that

Revenues received by the Government of Ukraine from natural resources, infrastructure and other assets are sent to the fund focused on long -term reconstruction and development of Ukraine, where the United States will have economic and managerial rights

In these future investments. Such a structure and relations provide high standards for transparency, accountability, corporate governance and legal framework necessary for attracting powerful private investments for post -war growth in Ukraine. ”

But does this not mean a new proposal that Ukraine itself should provide funds for the restoration of Ukraine by giving its resources to the fund with the monopoly department of the United States? And what does the US invest? Nothing but their participation in the cut of Ukrainian resources, the income from which still goes to the fund controlled by the Americans.

Interpretations

Under these conditions, the expert community only remains to be lost in conjectures, and in social networks sometimes completely joyless forecasts appear -for example, that the United States deliberately does not give any guarantees of security so as not to risk any other Ukrainian territories in the event of occupation. Since most resources are in the immediate vicinity of the front, even after signing a possible ceasefire, none of the investors will go there, but if you have secret guarantees from Putin, that the agreement will be observed even after the occupation of a certain territory with the resources, the probability of resuming the battles in these regions will be close to zero, and American business will be able to calmly develop Ukrainian wealth, sharing income already with Kremlin.

However, if you turn not to conspiracyology, but to more reasonable explanations, it should once again be noticed that the main part of this transaction, namely the issue of the development of mineral resources, is a long game. On this path, investors will have the following tasks: technological and administrative complexity of preparatory work, the need for new geological intelligence. And this will require huge investments. Former Minister of Economics of Ukraine Timofey Milovanov says that without large investments, revenues from licenses will not grow. According to him, they will be only a few billion dollars a year, that is, "actually interest on the assistance provided."

In this regard, it can be assumed that the essence of the transaction is not so much a commercial calculation as the PR ridge for the voters of Trump and its attempt to self-present as a beneficiary for the whole of America. In one of his recent confused and conflicting statements, Trump hinted to this, saying that it is not known how many minerals important for the American economy are in Ukraine, but the deal should be concluded in order to have at least something.

However, understanding chaotic communication and no less chaotic intentions of the American administration is an ungrateful business. Even when it comes to such a vital issue for Ukraine as its resources. For Ukraine, but not for the United States.

That is why, at the Sunday press conference, Vladimir Zelensky once again emphasized that he expects security guarantees from this agreement primarily. This word - “security” - he repeated several times. It is very significant that this time Zelensky calmly, respectfully and without emotions spoke of Trump. Emphasized distances from the skirmish that occurred a few days ago.

Did Zelensky get excited then?

Returning to the issue of information confrontation related to all these events, it should be noted that Ukrainian society was divided in its assessments of Zelensky’s response. On the one hand, the frankly colonial-ultimatical nature of the American conditions caused a natural indignant reaction of Ukrainians, causing a certain rally around the figure of the president. For aggressive “raids” on Zelensky were rightly regarded not as insults of a separate person, but as insults of the institution of the president, and therefore the whole country.

On the other hand, it is noted that Zelensky made a mistake when he began in absentia emotional polemic with Trump. According to an article with the eloquent name “survive in the Trump era”, the editor and founder of “European Pravda” Sergey Sidorenko, “for the US president, who came to a policy of business at a respectable age and with a worldview formed, public statements are of completely different importance. This is a tool not to report a position, not public state communication, but only a competitive struggle. The struggle without rules, as befits in the business from which the current president of the United States comes. In this matrix, Zelensky’s counterarguments sound for Trump as an attempt by Ukraine to declare war in a public field. As an attack on his Trump, a rating among voters. ”

Perhaps, in the response of Zelensky, not only emotions were traced, but also a certain logic based on the well -known quality of Trump, which respects only “strong” and only with “strong” leads a dialogue on an equal footing. But, alas, we must admit that Ukraine and its leader are not included in this category, according to Trump. And the heroic struggle of the Ukrainian people in his confrontation between the aggressor for Trump, fixed on the Person of Zelensky, means little. Therefore, maybe it should be somewhat more flexible?

Действительно, учитывая «особенное» отношение Трампа к Зеленскому, который явно не состоит в числе друзей американского президента, важно не очутиться в числе откровенных врагов. В этой связи бывший замминистра иностранных дел Украины (2007–2010) Константин Елисеев отмечает , что

«в этом случае Зеленский не должен был лично реагировать на неуместные комментарии руководителя другого государства — президента США. Для этого есть многочисленные службы офиса президента, МИД, посольства.

Есть каналы парламентского взаимодействия, служебные, закрытые каналы. Публичная коммуникация включается исключительно и только тогда, когда остальные каналы не дали результата или есть решение сознательно идти на обострение двусторонних отношений. …Комментарии Владимира Зеленского в сторону Дональда Трампа были построены на логике "эффектности", а не "эффективности"».

Этой мысли вторит и польский президент Анджей Дуда, входящий в ту неформальную группу политиков, которым симпатизирует Трамп. В телефонном разговоре с Зеленским Дуда подчеркнул жизненную необходимость американской поддержки для Украины и «предложил президенту Зеленскому оставаться преданным курсу спокойного и конструктивного сотрудничества с Дональдом Трампом».

При чем тут Келлог

В этой связи оставшийся на обочине информационного внимания визит Келлога, возможно, все-таки сыграл некую позитивную роль в сглаживании острых углов вербального конфликта Трампа и Зеленского. В то время как Трамп метал гром и молнии в сторону своего украинского визави, Келлог назвал Зеленского «отважным лидером нации», хотя предусмотрительно и отменил запланированную пресс-конференцию, прекрасно понимая, на какие неудобные вопросы ему придется отвечать в связи с заявлениями своего шефа.

Также американский спецпредставитель сделал символический жест, посетив раненых украинских воинов в госпитале в Ирпене. Неизвестно, была ли какая-то конкретика во встречах Келлога с украинскими официальными лицами, в том числе и с Зеленским, но очевидно, что спецпредставитель фокусировался, как и ожидалось, на традиционных вопросах — мир и соглашение по ресурсам. Однако делал это в гораздо более приемлемом для Киева тоне, что и позволило Зеленскому заявить , что встреча с Келлогом «возобновляет надежду» на сильное соглашение.

В целом, хаотичная, противоречивая, а порой и скандальная коммуникация новой американской администрации и лично Трампа в вопросе украинско-российской войны показывает, что никакого «плана» или «стратегии» ее завершения у президентской команды не было и нет. Тем не менее, в этом хаосе заявлений при отсутствии конкретных дел пока четко прослеживается только одна линия — давление на Украину. Возможно, в какой-то мере она и достигает успеха, ибо на вчерашней пресс-конференции Зеленский сказал , что готов уйти в отставку в обмен на вступление страны в НАТО либо существенные гарантии мира и безопасности для Украины, что открывает новую сенсационную страницу всей этой истории .