Ukrainian withdrawal from Kursk region rumoured as Russian troops enter Sudzha

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) appear to be withdrawing from the occupied pocket of Russia’s western Kursk region following the entry of Russian forces to the key town of Sudzha, Ruslan Leviev, the founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team military think tank, told independent broadcaster Dozhd on Wednesday.

Leviev said that Sudzha, the largest town in the Kursk region to have been occupied by Ukraine since the AFU launched a surprise incursion into Russian territory in August, was now under the “full control of Russian troops”.

No significant fighting has been recorded around the city in recent days, Leviev added, which could indicate an AFU retreat from the region. While Ukraine may still be able to hold a few border villages “for two or three days”, its troops were likely to withdraw from the region completely in the coming days, Leviev added.

Russian state news agencies published footage on Wednesday purporting to show Russian troops raising the country’s tricolour in the centre of Sudzha, while the Defence Ministry announced that Russia had recaptured five more villages in the Kursk region and that the operation was ongoing.

While the AFU has not yet commented on the reports of Russian troops recapturing Sudzha, AFU Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Monday that while there was no threat of Ukrainian units being encircled in the Kursk region, they were “manoeuvering to favourable defence lines”.

The British Ministry of Defence estimated on Monday that Ukraine likely retained control of around 300 square kilometres of Russian territory in the region, a significant drop from the estimated 1,000 square kilometres seized in August.

By withdrawing from the Kursk region, which Kyiv has managed to hold for months by prioritising its defence over other Ukrainian strongholds along the frontline, Ukraine has lost a valuable bargaining chip that it hoped to use in eventual peace negotiations with Russia, Israeli military expert David Sharp told Novaya Gazeta Europe.

If it fully recaptures the region, Moscow, on the other hand, will have ensured that it’s in a stronger negotiating position, amid Washington’s push for Ukraine to make significant concessions to strike a peace deal with Russia.