The elephant stirred

The new Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carny promises to force the United States to respect the neighbors. But Trump continues to threaten the tariffs and fate of the “51st state”. How will the confrontation end?

US President Donald Trump does “very stupid things”, trying to weaken Canada with tariffs and, “ultimately, annex” it. In recent days, Canadian politicians of different things have been made with this kind of statements: as representatives of the ruling liberal party, which was just headed by 59-year-old economist Mark Carney and opposition. They are sure that President Trump’s policy is an “existential challenge” for Canada. The White House does not hide that they no longer perceive Canada as a partner and ally: she has already become or rapidly becoming a competitor. In Ottawa, they are also not seized: the country introduces return duties on the import of goods from the United States, and ordinary Canadians refuse to buy American products and enroll in the army. How much Canada and its new prime minister are ready for a real confrontation with the United States, and who will suffer more from the “trade wars”-Washington or Ottawa-the observer of the European and international policy of Novo-Europe, Nikolai Pershin, sorted out.

On International Women's Day, protesters gathered near the US Consulate building in Montreal. Some of them were dressed in bright red mantles-recognizable symbols of the heroines of the popular anti-utopia “The story of the maid”. The image was not chosen by chance: this year the attacks of the American government on the rights of women and the sovereignty of Canada were the key topics of the march. “You are not kings. We are not a maid! " -The participants of the action to US President Donald Trump, vice president Jay Di Wansu and their close associate Ilon Ilon Mask turned .

In the screens that appeared on the screens in 2017, the sixth and final season of which starts on April 8, it is told about the totalitarian Republic of Galaad, which arose in the United States. The authorities of the ultra -conservative state pursue women, representatives of gender minorities and intellectuals. Canada there appears to be a salvation for all humiliated and offended. Liberal democracy, where human rights are sacred.

“Canada has always been the place where people ran away when everything went awry in the United States,”

- said the author of the novel of the same name, according to which the series was set, Margaret Etwood. In this context, she mentioned fugitive slaves, deviations from calling during the Vietnamese War and the current refugees from third countries, fearing deportation to their homeland. Etwood published her novel in 1985, when, according to her, the United States was perceived as a light of democracy. By 2025, the situation fundamentally changed, which revived the interest in anti -utopia: after the election of Trump, Roman returned to Canadian lists of bestseller.

Trump comes

Even before his inauguration in January, Donald Trump unexpectedly began to make statements that a neighboring state could-supposedly to the pleasure of “many Canadians” -become the 51st state of the United States: the first in size and population and fourth after California, Texas and New York for GDP. According to the US president, the Americans and Canadians together would create a great prosperous country, reliably protected from threats from Russia and China.

However, painting a wonderful joint future, at the same time Trump began to make the present for Canadians more and more difficult. On February 1, 2025, he announced the introduction of duties of 25% for imports from Mexico and Canada (the exception was made only for Canadian energy, which were proposed to set a fee of 10%). However, the decision did not enter into force instantly, but was postponed for a month - until March 4.

On March 6, Trump ordered to wait until April 2 with the entry of tariffs to that part of the export that meets the requirements of the trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada (USMS).

And this week they entered into force duties of 25% of imports in the United States steel and aluminum. This measure affected all foreign suppliers, but separately Canada Trump threatened to increase the tariff to 50%. True, so far he also decided not to resort to such an extent.

Initially, the need to introduce tariffs against two neighbors - Canada and Mexico - Trump and his team explained not at all economic reasons. According to the Trump administration, this was necessary in order for neighboring countries to seriously begin to deal with the supply of fentanil drugs to the United States and more actively suppressed the flows of illegal migrants. According to the White House website, “President Trump provided Canada and Mexico with enough opportunities to restrain the dangerous activities of cartels and the stream of fatal drugs,” but the US neighbors “could not solve this problem”.

The war goes against drugs, and not “against trade”, officials of the Trump administration are not tired of repeating .

But if in relation to Mexico such an argument has a reason, then in the case of Canada it looks doubtful. In 2024, American customs on the southern border seized almost 9.6 tons of fentanil, and on the border with Canada - only 19 kg. The gap in statistics by illegal statistics is equally impressive .

At first, at first, Canada authorities made it clear that they listened to Washington’s requirements: in particular, they have adopted a plan to strengthen borders for 1.3 billion Canadian dollars (913 million US dollars). In addition, as the former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recalled , Canada’s authorities appointed the “fentanil tsar” (an official responsible for the fight against drugs), after the United States recognized transnational criminal cartels with terrorist organizations, strengthened the joint fight against organized crime. All this made it possible to reduce the flow of fentanil from Canada to the United States to almost zero, but from the "duties that are not justified" did not save.

So, probably, this is not the point at all. And the fact that Trump is an ardent supporter of the mercantilist approach to trade, who does not see significant minuses in protectionism, although there are actually a lot of them. The other day, he confirmed that thanks to an increase in imported tariffs and other measures, he returns “welfare back to America”.

Two February telephone conversations of Trudeau and Trump turned out to be indicative in this sense, the details of which were told with reference to the sources of The New York Times (NYT).

The head of the White House, in particular, was indignant at the measures of the milk sector, the difficulties that American banks face in Canada, and Canadian consumption taxes, which, according to Trump, make American goods more expensive.

Introducing tariffs, the president - as he probably believes himself, restores justice.

Moreover, in the same Nyt material it was reported that Trump hinted to revise the border agreement with Canada, which has been operating since 1908. The fact that the associates of the US President - in particular, one of his closest advisers Peter Navarro, would like to “draw the border with Canada,” the British newspaper The Telegraph also reported .

Change of leader on the crossing

A sharp change in relations with the United States overlap in Canada on an internal political crisis. On January 6, the post of Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party left Justin Trudeau, who headed the government for almost ten years. He explained such a step by the fact that he cannot consider himself the best candidate for the upcoming parliamentary elections of 2025.

The trigger for the decision was the aggravation of disagreements within the government. In December 2024, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Christ, also representing the Liberal Party, resigned in protest against the prime minister of additional budget payments to the Canadians. He wanted to give out 250 Canadian dollars ($ 174) to everyone who earned less than 150 thousand in 2023. Friland considered these expenses inappropriate.

The resignation of the Deputy Prime Minister aggravated the problems of the liberal party, whose ratings have recently been constantly reduced : in June 2023, the opposition conservatives ahead of the ruling party by only 5%, and in January of the 25th-by 24%.

Thus, in the parliamentary elections in October 2025, the liberals should have lost a crushing way - and Justin Trudeau decided to sacrifice himself in an attempt to save the party.

All the positions of the liberal party in the parliament were preserved, so the prime minister’s chair remained with her. It was only necessary to choose a new leader who would automatically take the post of Prime Minister of the country.

On March 9, Mark Carney became . It is now faced with several difficult tasks at once: to win in early elections, which, as expected, will announce in the coming days, and effectively resist Donald Trump.

Who is Mark Carney?

The new prime minister of Canada is 59 years old. He has no political experience, but the track record in the field of finance and economics deserves attention.

Mark Carney received a bachelor's degree at Harvard University, and then the degree of Master and PhD in Oxford. He worked in the branches of the Goldman Sachs Corporation, and in 2008 he headed the Canada Bank. At this time, a global financial crisis came, which Canada - largely thanks to Karni’s decisions - survived without shocks.

In 2013, Carney became the manager of England-the first foreigner appointed to this post-and remained for them until 2020, that is, throughout the entire period of the country's exit from the European Union. Then he worked at the Brookfield Asset Management investment and informal adviser to the government of Justin Trudeau to restore the Canadian economy after the pandemic Covid-19.

At the same time, as soon as Washington began to attack Canada, the ratings of the liberals went up sharply. Now the gap between the ruling party and opposition conservatives is less than 8% and is reduced every day.

The electorate liked that the authorities did not silently listen to the claims from Trump, but gave him a rebuff.

So, Justin Trudeau accused Trump of striving to destroy the Canadian economy, and also called the US president’s tariff policy “a very stupid thing” and an “ existential challenge ” for Canada. Freedom and democracy in the country, as well as its very existence, cannot be perceived as a given, he advanced his associates in an emotional farewell speech before leaving the post of leader of the Liberal Party.

And Mark Carney in the first performance after winning an intra -party vote accused the neighbors of the desire to take possession of Canadian "resources, water, land, country." “If they succeeded, they would destroy our lifestyle,” the politician warned, but immediately after that added: his country "will never be part of America, in no way, in no way, in any form."

“We did not ask for this battle. But Canadians are always ready when someone else drops gloves. The Americans should not doubt: Canada wins in trade, like in hockey, ”he added.

Canadian liberals are sure that the new prime minister is exactly the person who is needed to successfully overcome the difficult stage in the history of Canada. As the Minister of Migration Mag Miller was figuratively expressed , to ask about the Carney’s summary - “It's like asking if the book“ War and Peace ””: “This is a damn good book.”

The new prime minister himself during the election campaign also emphasized his experience on “resolving many crises and saving two economies [Canadian in 2008 and British during Brexit]”. And now it's time for him to demonstrate all his skills: both a financial and economic nature and diplomatic. To convince Trump to abandon tariff wars is not an easy task.

They lose everything

At the moment, the Canadian authorities have already made it clear that they would not concede, in their opinion, unjust US claims. “The stake is worth something more. President Trump wants to bring us to a state where we will be much weaker economically in order to ultimately annexes us, ” said the Melanie Zholi, head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Med.

Immediately after the announcement of Washington, the first duties of Ottawa announced return measures. On March 4, duties on the goods of American exporters with a total value of about 30 billion Canadian dollars ($ 20.6 billion) entered into force.

The nomenclature of this measure of goods includes 1256 items: these are food, alcohol, furniture, clothes and much more. The second round is also planned - already for goods with a total value of 125 billion Canadian dollars (86.6 billion US dollars), but it was decided not to rush with it yet: they will see what would happen on April 2 - on the day to which Trump froze the part of the tariffs.

At the same time, on March 12, after the entry into force of American duties for aluminum and steel, Canada gave its answer to this step: it introduced additional tariffs totaling 29.8 billion Canadian dollars (20.6 billion US dollars), which will affect steel, aluminum and some other products from the United States. Among the goods that fell under new Canadian measures are computers, sports equipment and cast iron products.

The trade war will seriously hit both sides. This is not surprising, given the closest relationship of the two economies. Bilateral trade in 2024 amounted to approximately $ 762.1 billion, of which most of which 412.7 billion are imported from Canada to the United States. Canada is the largest sales market for more than half (50 out of 97 categories) of all goods produced in the United States. At the same time, the United States accounts for 73% of the total Canadian exports. About 900 thousand Americans operate in Canadian companies, and almost 8 million jobs in the United States are dependent on trade with Canada.

As the Canadian authorities predict ,

As a result of the US tariff policy, thousands of jobs will be at risk, the global competitiveness of the whole of North America will decrease. Tariffs will violate the American supply chains, provoking delays and a rise in cost of production.

Companies on both sides of the border will freeze investments, which will slow down economic growth even more.

Canadians can already notice in the coming days an increase in prices for perishable goods, including products. Representatives of chain stores note : the speed and level of price increase will depend on the type of product, current reserves and the ability to find alternatives within Canada or in third countries. It is assumed that the most price will grow on unique goods that are produced for the most part in the United States: for example, for a children's mixture or diapers.

At the same time, experts note that growth will occur not only due to an increase in costs (they have yet to be calculated for each category of goods), but also because of speculative pricing: companies can use tariffs as a preposition to increase prices more than necessary.

Trump's current trade war - not only with Canada, but also with Mexico, the EU, China, will also affect the Americans. According to the United US Economic Committee, the prices of computers, phones and other electronics in the United States can grow by 11%. Fresh products may rise in price for Americans by 3%, and products as a whole - by 2%. The complete refueling of the car will cost residents of the northeastern part of the United States close to Canada, by 3-6 dollars more than now.

Macroeconomic indicators will also worsen.

The introduction of Washington tariffs of 25% will lead to the fact that Canada GDP will be reduced by 2.6% (approximately 78 billion Canadian dollars, or 53.8 billion US dollars). And this means the loss of 1900 Canadian dollars (1311 US dollars) per person per year.

US GDP will decrease by 1.6% (approximately $ 467 billion), and each American will lose $ 1300 a year.

According to forecasts , inflation in Canada in March will be 2.5% compared with 1.9% in January. And it can only be the beginning. Trying to soften the potential negative consequences of Trump’s trading policy, Canada Bank on Wednesday announced a decrease in a key interest rate by 25 basic points to 2.75% - this is the lowest level from September 2022. “We completed 2024 with solid economic indicators, but now we are faced with a new crisis,” Tyff Maclem, the head of the Bank of Canada, admit at a press conference.

Awakening of self -awareness

В то время как экономические последствия развернувшегося между США и Канадой конфликта в полной мере еще только предстоит ощутить, политические видны уже сейчас.

Выступая в 1936 году в Квебеке, 32-й президент США Франклин Делано Рузвельт построил свою речь на тезисе о том, что американцы и канадцы не считают друг друга иностранцами. Тогда его идеи были восприняты вполне благосклонно. Учитывая политику 47-го президента Дональда Трампа, которая вызывает у подавляющего большинства канадцев отторжение, на прежнее добрососедство рассчитывать больше не приходится.

Напротив, в Канаде теперь вспоминают яркие эпизоды из англо-американской войны 1812–1815 годов. «Американцы пришли на территорию, которая сейчас известна как Канада, чтобы завоевать ее. Их разбили. А затем [в 1814 году] некоторые [канадские солдаты] сожгли Белый дом», — напомнил недавно непростую историю взаимоотношений Жан Кретьен, бывший премьером Канады в 1993–2003 годах. «Но я слишком стар для такого», — добавил 91-летний ветеран канадской политики, выступавший на съезде Либеральной партии, где избирали Марка Карни. Судя по смеху из зала, шутка членам правящей партии понравилась.

Хотя, конечно, это именно что шутка.

В канадской армии, по последним данным, — 65 тысяч военных, в американской — 2,1 млн. А ежегодные расходы на оборону: 41 млрд канадских долларов (28,5 млрд долларов США) против 895 млрд долларов США. При этом в плане закупок вооружений Канада сильно зависит от США,

и, как предупреждают эксперты, если Оттава будет наращивать оборонные расходы, то это неизбежно принесет коммерческую выгоду американскому ВПК.

Показательно при этом, что канадские военные фиксируют стабильный рост числа граждан, желающих записаться в армию. Напрямую с эскалацией они это не связывают, но так или иначе на то, что текущий конфликт пробудил самосознание канадцев, указывают многие . Значительная часть граждан Канады именно в эти дни поняла: их стране необходимо избавляться от зависимости от США. Да и на кого бы то ни было еще рассчитывать вряд ли стоит. «Мы стали слишком зависимы от Америки — Трамп прав в этом. К кому нам обратиться за помощью и защитой? NATO? United Kingdom? Не смешите меня», — сказал газете The Guardian, которая опрашивала канадцев из разных слоев общества и разных профессий, бывший журналист Джин Уилдон.

На бытовом уровне изменение настроений чувствуется хорошо. Так, в канадских магазинах с полок начали убирать американский алкоголь и расставлять таблички «Покупай канадское». А местные СМИ составляют «гиды патриотического шоппинга». По данным опросов , 42% канадцев готовы «делать всё возможное», чтобы избежать покупки товаров из США. А 88% опрошенных сказали, что предпочтут товар с маркировкой «Сделано в Канаде». Более того, канадцы уже продают недвижимость в США: например, летние домики, которыми владели годами.

Широкую популярность в стране в эти дни получил вирусный ролик — ремейк знакомой любому канадцу средних лет рекламы пива 2000 года. В старом ролике обыгрывались стереотипы о канадцах: они либо лесорубы, либо торговцы шерстью, живут в иглу, ездят на собачьих упряжках и так далее. В новом, некоммерческом видео говорится: «Они [американцы] ошибочно принимают нашу скромность за слабость. Нашу доброту — за согласие [с идеей о 51-м штате]. Нашу страну — за еще одну звездочку на своем флаге. Нашу любовь к горячему сырному путину [канадское блюдо из картошки фри] — за свою любовь к вульгарному Путину».

Но одними показательными жестами, конечно, в деле повышения автономности от США не обойтись. Среди необходимых мер, например, устранение торговых барьеров между провинциями Канады путем унификации правил для грузоперевозок и мобильности рабочей силы, перенастройка энергосистемы, перенаправление экспорта товаров в Азию и Европу.

Рядом со слоном

В Оттаве теперь действительно больше рассчитывают на сближение с Европой, которая также оказалась в центре серьезного конфликта с США. И речь идет как об идеологических разногласиях , так и о тарифах, которые Трамп вводит и в отношении ЕС.

Правда, канадские власти считают, что европейцы не до конца понимают серьезность ситуации. По итогам февральского визита во Францию, Германию и Бельгию Мелани Жоли сокрушалась , что европейские лидеры не реагируют должным образом на угрозы Трампа в адрес Канады. Глава МИД призывала коллег «проснуться» и координировать ответные меры на тарифы, а также «совместно защищать свою национальную безопасность и суверенитет».

Теперь, с приходом к власти Марка Карни, выстраивать отношения с Европой, вероятно, будет проще, учитывая его опыт успешной работы в Лондоне и активного взаимодействия в тот период с евробюрократами из Брюсселя.

Как считает , например, экс-глава Минфина Великобритании Джордж Осборн — человек, который выбрал Карни на пост главы Банка Англии, — новый канадский премьер-министр не только будет отстаивать позиции своих сограждан, но и, «бесспорно, поможет всему западному миру».

И это касается как торгово-экономических вопросов, так и, например, сферы безопасности. Канада — участница «коалиции желающих», которая создается под эгидой Лондона из тех стран, которые намерены и дальше оказывать Украине разностороннюю поддержку. 11 марта канадцы были на парижской встрече военных представителей более 30 стран, где обсуждалось создание международных сил безопасности для Украины. Администрацию Трампа на это мероприятие даже не приглашали.

Зато представители двух правительств оказались на встрече глав МИД стран G7 в канадском Квебеке 12–14 марта — и заранее было ясно, что дебаты там будут ожесточенными. По данным издания Bloomberg, США еще до мероприятия наложили вето на предложение Канады о создании специальной группы для отслеживания теневого флота России, с помощью которого Кремль обходит ценовой потолок на нефть.

Пока позиции Вашингтона и Оттавы по большинству ключевых опросов расходятся кардинально. И даже гипотетическая победа оппозиционной Консервативной партии на досрочных выборах в Канаде принципиально мало что может изменить. Хотя ее лидера Пьера Пуальевра иногда называют «канадским Трампом» за консервативные взгляды и «острый язык», он тоже готов идти до конца в отстаивании простой и, казалось бы, неоспоримой истины: «Канада никогда не станет 51-м штатом США». Более того, его тезис «Канада прежде всего» — зеркальное отражение лозунга Дональда Трампа, что может сделать потенциальное столкновение двух лидеров еще более жестким, чем оно есть сейчас.

Между тем, точки соприкосновения со своими американскими коллегами канадским политикам искать всё-таки придется.

Как отмечал еще Пьер Эллиот Трюдо (премьер-министр Канады в 1968–1979 и 1980–1984 годах, отец Джастина Трюдо), граничить с США — «всё равно что спать рядом со слоном»: «Независимо от того, насколько дружелюбно и уравновешенно это животное, каждое его шевеление или вздох сказывается на окружающих».

Что уж тогда говорить про слона, который дружелюбием и уравновешенностью не отличается.