Stage of bargaining

Moscow is not inferior, Washington is pressing. We tell you what the peace agreement of Russia and Ukraine can be

The specialized US Presidential Steven Stephen Whitkoff left Moscow after negotiations on a peaceful settlement of war with Ukraine. The results of the meeting remain unknown, however, the media actively discuss the possible clause of the agreement. The Washington Post reports that Russia retains a tough position, and Foxnews notes that Trump's refusal to extend the license to buy Russian oil through suction banks can be part of his pressure tactics in Putin.

New Europe tells how a peace treaty can be according to the media.

What does Moscow require

On March 12, The Washington Post has published the potential demands of Russia in negotiations with Ukraine. According to WP, the document was prepared by the Moscow Analytical Center, closely related to the FSB, and sets out the tough negotiation position of Moscow. It states that a peace agreement for 100 days, as the Donald Trump administration proposes, is unrealized, and the real settlement of the conflict is impossible before 2026.

One of the key requirements is the official recognition of Russia's sovereignty over the occupied Ukrainian territories. The document also proposes a further separation of Ukraine: the creation of a buffer zone in the northeast, along the border with the Bryansk and Belgorod regions of Russia, as well as a demilitarized zone in the south, near Crimea, which will affect the Odessa region.

According to WP, Moscow insists on the “complete dismantling” of the current Ukrainian government, since the change of power within the country, according to the Kremlin, is impossible without external intervention. The document also rejects the possibility of introducing peacekeeping forces, since any such presence will be under the control of the West.

Russia against continuing the supply of weapons to Ukraine after a possible agreement and demands to reduce the army of Ukraine, the number of which is more than a million people. Moscow may offer not to place missiles in Belarus in exchange for the U.S. refusal from new missile systems in Europe. The document also mentions the opportunity to provide the United States access to Russian minerals, including rare earth metals in the Donbass. This can be a lever in the negotiations.

The document directly states that the partial abolition of sanctions is not a priority for Russia, since their influence is “clearly exaggerated”. The authors also conclude that even if Ukraine agrees to territorial concessions, without the official recognition of Russian control over these regions, the war may resume - especially if the US has changed in the United States. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not confirm the existence of a document that WP told about.

According to Reuters, Russia has transmitted the United States a list of requirements, the implementation of which, in her opinion, can lead to the end of the war against Ukraine and the restoration of relations with Washington. The agency reported this by two informed sources.

What points are included in this list and whether Moscow is ready for peace negotiations with Kiev before their adoption is unknown. According to Reuters sources, Russian and American officials discussed the conditions at full -time and virtual meetings for the past three weeks.

The Kremlin’s requirements are described as extensive and similar to those that Russia has already nominated to Ukraine, the USA and NATO. Among them is the ban on Ukraine’s entry into the alliance, an agreement on the non -use of foreign troops on its territory and the international recognition of Vladimir Putin’s statements that “Crimea and four regions belong to Russia” ( implied by the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions, in which borders are not specified - approx. Ed. ). Russia still requires that the United States and NATO consider the so-called “indigenous reasons” of the conflict, including the expansion of NATO to the east.

What will happen after the negotiations of the United States and Ukraine

The publication of RBC-Ukrainereported that during a meeting in Gidd, Ukraine invited the United States to sign an agreement on minerals, but the American side decided to take a break.

While Ukraine is ready to sign a framework document now, the United States wants to develop a wider and detailed agreement. If it is nevertheless concluded, the United States will gain access to the extraction of rare earth materials in Ukraine. However, Washington does not consider this as a security guarantee for Kyiv.

On the basis of anonymity, the Ukrainian diplomat told reporters in Gidd the details of negotiations that were not included in a joint statement, the Russian BBC service reported . So, according to the diplomat, Ukraine discussed the issue of territorial integrity with the states, but did not make concessions: Kyiv does not recognize the occupied territories by Russian and does not transmit them to Moscow, even if Russia continues to hold them after a possible ceasefire.

It is now impossible to restore control over them by military means, but Ukraine intends to achieve this with diplomatic methods. The withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions was not discussed, the BBC Russian service correspondent noted.

The United States resumed military assistance and the exchange of intelligence immediately after the meeting, and Ukraine agreed to a 30-day truce . Kyiv also insisted on including the exchange of prisoners in the final statement and hopes that the truce will help to speed up the process if Russia accepts the conditions.

Negotiations lasted more than eight hours and included a detailed discussion of the ceasefire, including the sea and in the air. The issue of the presence of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region was raised, but there were no requirements for their withdrawal.

Ukraine is ready to provide technical groups for monitoring compliance with the truce, but the issue of consequences for its violations has not yet been discussed. The United States proposed a system for monitoring the ceasefire, but its details have yet to be coordinated. In general, an agreement in Gidda has become a compromise for Ukraine, but at the same time a demonstration of the desire for peace.

Why a truce can be concluded on Russia

On March 13, after Putin talked with Whitkoff, it became known that the United States banned the payment of Russian oil procurement through sanctions Russian banks, which should complicate export and strengthen the pressure on Moscow in negotiations.

The US Department of Finance did not extend the 8l license, which allowed oil and gas transactions through the largest Russian banks under sanctions, including Sberbank, VTB, Alfa-Bank, Rosbank, VEB and Central Bank. This mechanism acted from the beginning of the war and was regularly updated .

The representative of the US Treasury confirmed to Reuters that the refusal to extend the license was a conscious step, but did not specify the reasons, emphasizing that the Trump administration was focused on the completion of the conflict and continues to apply sanctions as a pressure tool. A source in the White House told Fox News that the termination of the license is part of a negotiation strategy aimed at completing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The opinions of the media and bloggers about Putin’s words about readiness for the world were divided. Daniel Fried, a former assistant to the US Secretary of State for Russia and Eurasia in 2005-2009, told the BBC that the purpose of the Putin war was to "restore the Russian Empire in Europe, and if it holds it, then there will be no ceasefire."

“Well, maybe if Trump presses a strongly on Putin, then Putin will find a way to retreat to the answer like“ yes, but ”. But I would not be too much. Until now, Putin has not shown signs of abandoning his goal, and his goal is the destruction of the effective sovereignty of Ukraine, ”he said.

Russian military commissars supported Putin's statement. The expert of the Center for Military-Political Journalism Boris Rozhin, the author of the Telegram channel Colonelcassad wrote , the words of the politician only confirm that "no one is going to refuse to recognize the loss of four regions from the requirements to Ukraine." Military blogger Yuri Podolyak said that "such an experienced politician as Vladimir Vladimirovich did not fall into the British trap:" We are not against a truce, but there are nuances ... "."

“He beautifully laid out on the shelves and threw the ball to the side of the enemy. There will be no truce in Kiev, or rather, in European. If it is, then in Russian. That is, on the terms of Russia, ”Podolyaka is sure.