Trumpression

US tariffs brought down stock and goods markets along with the dollar. This can lead to a global economic crisis

The fall of world markets is 7-10%, the failure of oil quotations to four -year minimums and the loss of confidence in the dollar - this is what Donald Trump has achieved by a trading attack on the whole world. The economists who interviewed Novy-European believe that the tariff war can turn into a global economic crisis.

“The worst day for the global stock market in five years,” that is, from the beginning of the pandemic and quarantines, - financial analysts were released under Monday under Monday. European indices at the opening of exchanges on the first day of the week collapsed by 6-10%, Japanese - by almost 8%, the Hong Kong stock exchange index of Hang Seng fell by more than 13%.

Oil, a key product for the Russian economy, at a minimum since 2021, and for Russian supplies the price of raw materials approached 50 dollars per barrel. The budget of Russia is balanced at least at 60. Investment banks are not waiting for the restoration of oil price - Goldman Sachs predicts the departure of $ 55 by the end of 2026 with a positive scenario and even 40 with a negative one.

- Today there are no investment objects without risk. Even gold is able to fall under the distribution, ”said a private investment consultant Andrei Kochetkov.

What is already happening with gold: it is getting cheaper, but usually, during a crisis, it is it that investors run to buy, selling other assets. Other metals, the trading of which complicate Trump's tariffs, fell by 5-10% per week, and the market waits for the fall will continue.

In the morning of Tuesday, April 8, the Asian markets have grown a little (mostly not much more than one percent, with the exception of the Japanese Nikkei 225-more than 5%), the American night continued to fall. The fact that the decision that provoked a collapse on the tariffs must be reviewed, according to The Washington Post, is already asking Trump to his ally and adherent Ilon Musk.

- Potentially, the change in the paradigm in the form of the refusal of the USA from the role of the international leader and the cardinal change in world trade rules can lead to the world to global politicos to the economic crisis and market consequences can be unprecedented.

Uncertainty goes off scale, and market fluctuations in 2008 are quite feasible if there is no rapid rational exit from the trade war, ”the financier Sergei Romanchuk told New Evrop.

Trump against the dollar

The main trouble of what is happening is not even so much in the very fall (although, of course, there is nothing good in it). There are more serious problems, and there are two of them: the leading economics of the world cannot answer with a coordinated and using all institutions, as it was with the economic shocks of 1998 and 2008, and in addition, what is happening destroys the trust in the dollar as a world reserve currency.

“Recent decades, the United States, being a real superpower, objectively performed the function of the stabilizer in the global economy, making efforts to repay and resolve the crises,” Andrei Yakovlev, associate researcher of the Davis Center at Harvard University.

The scientist recalled that the consistent actions of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) and the US Ministry of Finance, and on the other hand, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and financial regulators in the EU and Japan, played the key role. In particular, he believes, during the crisis of 2008, thanks to such coordinated actions, it was possible to avoid new great depression and limit himself to a recession.

- Now the problem in the institutional sense is that, in addition to Trump's games with tariffs, there is an “increase in efficiency” of the American state apparatus conducted by Ilon. And if a large -scale global crisis really begins, it is not clear who will respond to it from the USA, since competent employees in the Ministry of Finance and the Treasury were either already fired, or thanks to the mask they are concerned with completely different problems, ”said Yakovlev.

As for the dollar, not only in the last week he fell to the euro at the unprecedented hitherto at such a short period of 3.5 percent - he fell along with the collapse of the quotes for all exchange products led by oil and gold.

And this is already completely abnormal, because during total market sales, investors usually run to the dollar. He was always considered a “quiet harbor” - and now they have stopped perceiving it like that. “Trump, it would seem impossible, managed to undermine the reputation of the dollar as a reserve currency. Now the dollar is a risk! - writes financier Sergei Romanchuk. - The main evil of Trump’s policy for America is a fundamental uncertainty. The word of this “master of transactions” does not stand literally nothing! He says one thing, does completely different, ”says Romanchuk. This is what caused the desire of the whole world, according to the economist, “to stay away from this madman,” which resulted in a very specific figure: “For the fourth quarter of 2024, different central banks of the world reduced dollar reserves by 155 billion,” Romanchuk considered. And, in his opinion, it will be worse further.

The powder barrel of the reputation of the dollar started the fact that trust in this currency is also trust in American institutions and how in the United States they govern the state and economics, the invited researcher of the European Politics Analysis Center (Cepa) Alexander Kolyandr explained. The authority of all these institutions is very suffering from Trump's actions.

“The problem is that there is nothing to replace the dollar, because there are no other assets that would have such reliability and depth of the market as the dollar,” Colardr complains.

Who is the first to wrinkle

Economists are waiting for the storm in the market will intensify and can go to the global economic crisis and recession.

“The immediate consequences of the current situation will be a violation of world trade logistics, a surge in inflation and an economic decline in key regions, including China, the European Union, and in the United States itself,” said investment consultant Andrei Kochetkov.

“What is happening will slow down economic growth, and the risk of recession both in the USA and all over the world has increased greatly,” says Kolyandr.

One of the largest investment battles of the world, Goldman Sachs, more than doubled the probability of a recession in the United States more than a week: now he considers the risks of such a scenario at the level of 45%.

A recession is when the economy falls sequentially more than two quarters in a row and more than one and a half percent.

The worst in this situation, according to Kochetkov, is that the Central Bank will be an extremely difficult choice. To resist the crisis and help economic growth, it would be logical to start reducing bets for them now (this regularly requires Trump from the federal reserve system)-but just softening the monetary policy is fraught with warm-up inflation due to tariff barriers, Kochetkov notes. It is possible that now the bets, on the contrary, will have to increase, which will become a blow to economies.

The fall of the markets “will continue until at least the rhetoric of the American authorities, who until the last showed the neglect of the fate of the stock market,” Romanchuk writes . Such a collapse of market instruments, on the price of which the well-being of a significant part of the Americans depends ( their pension money is invested in the shares of the funds that are traded on the market- “New Europe” ), few could have suggested from the voted for Trump. “So, the pressure of voters and sponsors may also appear to change the situation, but so far this is not noticeable.”

At the same time, many experts believe that the US trading partners, who have now started negotiations with Washington on the terms of duties, will be able to convince Trump to abandon the destroying markets of ultimatums.

“I think that we will not see duties in the announced form and in the announced deadlines, everyone will bargain and conclude transactions,” Kolyander told us.

China vassal?

The Russian economy, which, under the leadership of the financial bloc of the government and the Central Bank, has been coping with the consequences of militarization and isolation for the fourth year. She had already withstood the flight of investors, inflation is almost three times higher than the one that the Central Bank is needed, giant military expenses, hitherto not seen the sanctions and attempts of the West to strangle the tributary of the oilollars to the Kremlin. And now the question is: will the economy bend in the beak of the last “black swan” - a global economic crisis?

The world recession will bring down the demand for oil along with prices - which is already happening. Because of this, there will be problems at the Russian budget, which will have to either occupy more (and this is ruined at high rates), or climb into the already devastated “cube” (and in the National Welfare Fund there are more than half as much money that can be taken immediately if compared with the outbreak of war).

As always, a successful time to fill the budget is when the ruble falls. This method is bad only by the fact that along with devaluation is intensified and so high inflation and the state needs to be spent more on increasing pensions and salaries.

Finally, the government is likely to think about sucking the expenses of the treasury - only, of course, in no case are the military, which accounts for about 40% of the budget.

As Alexander Kolyandr told us, if the Russian economy encounters a global crisis, then it will have to deal with two extremely unpleasant consequences:

- First: with a global crisis, all hopes for a quick start to reduce the rate can be thrown out the window. And this creates even more risks of further slowdown in an unbearable economy, ”he claims. (Recall that since last year, the Central Bank rate is at a record level of 21%, from which both business and ordinary citizens who are extremely expensive to take on credit from banks. And the second evil continues Kolyandr: - You can also forget about the increase in oil exports. Because all world enlargements of energy resources will strive to reduce the trade surplus with America, which means they will buy more American oil and LNG. Consequently, Russian energy resources will be bought with an even greater discount. This increases the already huge dependence of Russia on China - one of the main buyers of oil and gas.