Pope Francis died - what's next?

How will the elections of the new Pope will take place? And who is among the main candidates?

The preparation of the farewell ceremony with Pope Francis, who will be buried on Saturday in the Roman Basilica Santa Maria-Majore, began-the US President Donald Trump, the chairman of the European Commission Ursula von Lyayen, British Prime Minister Kir Starmer, President of France and Ukraine Emmanuel Macron, has already been buried on Saturday. and Vladimir Zelensky. The official mourning of Francis was announced not only by the Catholic Church, but also by entire countries. For example, Italy will grieve for five days, Spain and Portugal - three. In parallel, the procedure for electing the successor of the pope starts. Medusa talks about key candidates for the post of head of the Catholic Church, their chances and how voting itself is arranged.

With the death of Francis, the Vatican entered the period of the Sede Vacante, that is, the “empty throne”. The church is managed by the collegium of the cardinals, the main task of which is to choose a new pontiff

The procedure for the election of the Pope, called the conclave , will take place from May 5 to 10. In the theory, any baptized male Catholic can become the new dad, but for more than 700 years, pontiff has been elected exclusively from among the cardinals.

In the Conclave they can take part-and be elected-cardinals who have not reached the age of 80. Now this criterion meets 135 out of 252 members of the board. On the day of the meetings, the cardinals pray in the Cathedral of St. Peter, and then go to the Sistine Chapel, where they bring a solemn oath that they will not disclose any details regarding the conduct of the conclave. Throughout the term of the conclave, they are forbidden to communicate with the outside world.

The election procedure is secret in nature: each cardinal writes on the sheet the name of the candidate, for whom he casts his vote. After each round of voting, sheets with names are burned in the stove along with a special chemical composition, which gives smoke color. If black smoke comes from the pipe, this means that the new pontiff has not yet been chosen. When one of the candidates manages to overcome the threshold of two -thirds of the vote, white smoke is allowed from the pipe.

Voting is not endless. If there are not enough thirty -three rounds to the cardinals, two candidates are selected , who gained the largest number of votes in the last round. Further, the struggle occurs between them, and they themselves cannot participate in the vote. When the new pontiff is finally elected, the chairman of the collegium of the cardinals asks if he agrees to take the position and what name he will take.

The main intrigue of the upcoming conclave is who the new dad will be: a progressive or conservative.

80% of the cardinals entitled to vote wereappointed to Francis, which plays into the hands of progressists. However, the conservative wing also has a chance to win.

Progressers

Among the papabi, that is, candidates who can count on the election, it is worth highlighting several Italian cardinals. Although for two thousand years of the history of the papacy the vast majority of pontiffs - 217 out of 266 - were Italians, the last three were from other countries: John Pavel II, who ruled from 1978 to 2005 - Poles, Benedict XVI (2005–2013) - a German, and Francis - an Argentinean.

Good chances for the election of 70-year-old Pietro Passoli , which since 2013 has occupied the second most important in the Vatican Hierarchy by the position of state secretary. It was he who carried out the reforms that had begun by Francis, therefore, in password they see the natural successor of the policy of the deceased pontiff.

One of his most famous actions as a Secretary of State is the signing of an agreement with China in 2018 on the appointment of Catholic bishops. Many bishops reacted critically to the agreement, regarding it as surrender to the communist regime.

The master of compromises, passolin adheres to moderate positions, which is why neither supporters of the progressive line, nor conservatives are ready to consider it as their candidate. Against password, there can be a lack of experience of pastoral ministry, lack of charisma and the reputation of the bureaucrat.

The Cardinal of Pierbattist Pizzaball , who has been living in Jerusalem, has been applying for the papal Tiara, since 2020 has been the position of Latin Patriarch Jerusalem and enjoys great authority in the Middle East. He is known for the fact that after the attack of Hamas on October 7, 2023 he offered himself as a hostage in exchange for the release of captured children.

Pizzaballa supported the climatic initiatives of Francis, and also helped to build an interfaith dialogue . This makes the cardinal an acceptable candidate for progressives, however, the conservatives also relate to him favorably, since he refrained from disputes on theological issues.

On the other hand, he has little experience in the Roman curia and there is another significant drawback: he is 60 years old - he is quite young for the pontiff, which means that if he was elected, he will be able to remain in power for a very long time. The Vatican remembers the example of John Paul II, who entered the papal throne at the age of 57 and ruled for 27 years.

Another Italian, who can fall the choice of the collegium of the cardinals on, is the 69-year-old Archbishop Bologna and the chairman of the conference of bishops of Italy Matteo Dzuppy . Under Francis, he became the messenger of the Vatican in Ukraine and in this capacity in 2023–2024 he visited both Kiev and Moscow . However, his intermediary efforts did not lead to the results.

Scuppy can also become a candidate of a progressive wing in the Catholic Church: he is quite liberal about same -sex relationships. Against Scuppy, it may be played that in 2023 it became known about cases of sexualized violence by the priests of his diocese in relation to children.

With the election of a password, pizzaballs and a dzuppy in the Vatican after a 47-year break, a papa-italian can reign. However, a much greater innovation would be climbing the throne of the pope without European roots (the Argentinean Francis, although he said that he arrived from the edge of the world, was still a descendant of Italian emigrants). The last such pontiff was the Syrian Grigory III, who led the Catholic Church from 731 to 741.

Today, more than half of the cardinals with the right to vote - 82 out of 135 - represent non -European countries. In many ways, this is the merit of Francis: 55 non-Europeans received their dignity with him.

Of the Asian cardinals, according to the media, the 67-year-old Philippine and the former archbishop of Manila Luis Tagle has serious chances of the election, according to the media. He maintained the Francis course towards strengthening social justice and the fight against poverty and spoke out to mitigate the attitude of the church to the LGBTK people and divorced.

During the reign of the Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte (2016–2022), the archbishop repeatedly condemned off -court murders . At one time, it was believed that Francis himself saw the successor to him ideologically close to him, but then he cooled to him. In addition, it is unclear whether Tagle will be able to attract at least part of the conservatives to its side.

Among the African cardinals, a 76-year-old native of Ghana Peter Tarksson , who was considered a favorite on the last conclave in 2013, stands out. Tarkson spoke a lot about the protection of human rights and climate change, criticized neoliberal approaches in the economy. At the same time, he adheres to more conservative views than Francis, relatively same-sex marriages and the rights of LGBTK people. Tarksson has extensive experience in the structures of the Vatican, but it is not clear how much he will be able to enlist the support of European cardinals

Brazilian Cardinal Zhaim Spengler , who is 64 years old, looks like the most powerful candidate from Latin America. He is also more likely a supporter of progressive views: in his opinion, the Catholic Church should be "closer to people, simpler and poorer." In addition, he said that the church could consider the possibility of priestly ministry for married persons . Spengler is popular in Latin America, but he is not so well known beyond its borders. In addition, on the Conclave against him can be played by the lack of experience in the Roman curia.

Cardinals-conservatives

Conservatives have their own candidates who did not like the style of the Board of Francis with his calls for tolerance, compassion and the fight against privileges in the church.

Their informal leader is the American cardinal Reimond Burke. In 2023, he harshly criticized German bishops, allowing blessing same -sex marriages and repeated marriages between diluted Catholics. “This is a sin against Christ,” he said . Burke was not shy about criticizing Francis himself, which in 2023 led to an open conflict: the pontiff accused the cardinal of the sowing of enmity in the church and ordered him to deprive him of salaries and apartments in the Vatican.

This makes Berka a rather toxic candidate, therefore, from among the conservatives, papabils are more likely not him, but the 72-year-old Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo , who was included in the number of applicants for the Papal throne back in 2013.

Viktor Orban spoke positively about Erdo, which is not surprising, given that the cardinal supported the anti -migrant policy of the Hungarian prime minister. In 2016, he left television studio on the air when he was asked whether the sharp statements of the ruling party to the migrants correspond to Catholic principles.

Who has more chances, you can understand by betting on the election of pontiff

The Vatican forbade bets on the election of the new Pope at the end of the 16th century, but this does not interfere with the bookmakers in the USA or Great Britain. Today, on a large American Polymarket betting platform, Pietro Passoli - 37%, Luis Tagle - 26%, and Pierbattists Pizzaballa - 10%. In the English bookmakers, the most likely is the election of a password or tagl.

In 2005, the bets indicated that Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger was one of the three most likely applicants, and he really became Pope Benedict XVI.

However, the next conclave showed that it was not always worth relying on bets: in 2013, Cardinal Bergolo was fifteenth in the list of candidates for the papal throne with the probability of election of 4%, but in the end the college of cardinals preferred him.

Alexander Dunaev