Everyone woke up in an economic miracle

The economy of the Russian Federation was at a crossroads: everything seems to grow, but at the same time it falls. Frontious forecasts

In 2025, the government expects difficulties in the economy. And this is against the backdrop of record results of 2024. What happened?

But this happened. Different government departments and conventional experts told us and each other that everything is fine with the economy - it is growing!

But:

• The growth of its (economy) falls-that is, we can talk about slowing down, and somewhere stagnation is planned;

• We will have to survive inflation, which will be higher than forecasts;

• We'll have to survive the devaluation of the ruble;

• Prices will rise higher than expected;

• And consumer demand for non -food goods will fall since money begins to lack food for goods;

• pensions and payments and now do not cope with inflation, and whether it will still be;

• The costs must be reduced (but not for the “performance of tasks”), and the fees to the budget should be increased.

And so - there is nothing to worry about.

Let's figure out who scares what and what are the options for getting out of this situation (except that the only possible, but is not seriously considered - for politics).

The forecast is good, but there is a reality

In 2025, the Russian economy will grow by 2.5% - on Monday, April 21, the Ministry of Economic Development reported.

At the same time, the mayor only slightly reduced the forecast for the growth of the Russian Federation in the Russian Federation in 2026 - to 2.4%, the forecast for the growth of the Russian economy for 2027, the ministry retained at 2.8%, in 2028, according to the forecast, the mayor waits for GDP growth by 3.0%.

So everything is fine?

Not really.

The same forecast of the ministry reports that in 2025 the Russian economy has to survive inflation significantly higher than the initial forecasts, the drop in export income to a minimum over 8 years, as well as a new wave of ruble devaluation - up to almost 100 rubles per dollar.

The key problem, as follows from its assessments, will be oil prices: the average cost of a barrel of our Urals this year will be, as expected, only $ 56. This is at least 2020.

As a result, the economy will not read $ 23.2 billion export income compared to last year and $ 35 billion, and their total volume will drop to $ 410.6 billion - a minimum since 2017.

In turn, according to the mayor,

The dollar year after a sharp fall in the first half of the year will return to growth, and by December it will reach 98.7 rubles.

Inflation, despite the record for two decades, the key rate, the sixth year in a row will exceed the four percent goal of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. According to the forecast, prices will be 7.6%, which is 1.7 times higher than the department expected.

The specifics of economic growth

In addition, GDP growth in only 2.5% will mean a slowdown in the economy - after all, according to the updated data of Rosstat, in 2024 the GDP of the Russian Federation added 4.5%.

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What Rosstat counted

The second GDP assessment for 2024 in absolute terms amounted to 201152.1 billion rubles, the physical volume index of 2023-104.3%, the index-defente in relation to the prices of 2023-109.3%. The fourth quarter of the 2024th was especially successful: +1.55% to the previous quarter (taking into account seasonality)-this is the best result from the third quarter of 2023. Regarding the dosancy 4th quarter of 2021, growth was as much as 7.4%, which means not only restoration of the economy, but also access to a new level.

True, only half of the economy is really growing, the rest - stagnates or falls. Who is in the plus, who is in the red?

• Production industry (+0.38 percentage points) is the main growth driver

• Trade (+0.3 pp) - contrary to expectations

• Finances (+0.29 pp) - credit boom gave results

• Culture and sports (+0.19 pp)

• Production (+0,12 pp) - oil and gas are still holding

• It and communication (+0,11 pp)

• The government and everything that is connected with it (+0.11 pp) is budget money.

58.8% of the economy is them.

The remaining 41.2% - at best, at zero.

Agriculture is even in the minus (–0.28 pp).

Thus, 80% of the growth of the last three years is the merit of budget injections.

The only “private sector with growth potential” is IT, but its contribution to GDP is still small.

GDP yes, grows, but very uneven. The economy was divided almost in half, and one part already absorbs the other resources.

Correspondence polemic about restrictions on economic growth

Therefore, where Rosstat sees the rise, the center of macroeconomic analysis and short -term forecasting (TsMAKP) sees stagnation ...

“High -frequency data on economic activity confirm that stagnation has been formed in the Russian economy. In a vivid form, it covered the consumption of the population (in sales of non -food goods - a decline), private investments (especially to the production apparatus) and export of goods. At the same time, a falling of Russian exports possible as a result of the “war of sanctions” can strengthen the already serious problems with economic growth, ” the report said in DR. Belousov "On some restrictions on economic growth in Russia."

Who is right: Rosstat or Tsmakp?

In fact, the British economist Charles Gudhart, half a century ago, noticed that "when the indicator becomes the goal, he ceases to be a good indicator."

GDP growth has long turned into the fetish of the authorities, because the “pace of economic growth” is such a trump ace that the authorities put on the table, proving to citizens who are not working out in the economy that his policy is the only true

- Look, how the economy is growing, what else do you need?

But the TsMAKP is actually with his assessments of stagnation (which he does, in general, on the same data on which Rosstat proves growth) does not at all say that the government’s policy must somehow be adjusted. No, he insists that the economy could grow even faster - if you reduce the key rate, i.e. Expand the loan even more.

“... Within the framework of the existing structure of the economy, we can hardly grow faster than 2.0–2.5% per year (at the same time there is a great risk to shorten about 1.0-0.5 percent. GDP points due to excessively strict monetary policy,” says Dmitry Belousov.

But it is unlikely that the idea of ​​expanding the loan will appeal to the Central Bank, which barely managed to note a decrease in the inflationary expectations of business in “Enterprise Monitoring”, No. 4 (35), April 2025.

By historical standards, the price expectations of enterprises for the next three months are still approximately twice as high as the levels, which were in 2016–2020. and 2.3 times higher than the indicators of 2017–2019 .. However, in comparison with the 4th quarter of 2024, an improvement by about a quarter, and the speed of the decrease is very high-a similar or more significant decrease in price expectations was only three times in 25 years (in the middle of 2022, in early 2019 and in the first half of 2015).

If you compare the March price expectations since February 2025, the increase in the sensation of troubles is observed in the extraction of minerals, electric power, construction, transportation and storage. Whereas a very noticeable decrease in price expectations is present in processing, utilities, agriculture and trade.

Still, the price expectations in trade were not reduced, the Central Department Store objects, with such and such a rate and slowdown in consumer lending.

“Strong ruble”, a decrease in demand for non -food goods, looting and growing costs of trading companies can lead to an acute crisis in this segment of trade, which may also be expanded into “conjugated industries,” the TSMAKP experts warn.

And the decline in demand is noted by all sellers of non -food goods. Judging by their data and statistics, customers put off not only expensive purchases like cars, household appliances and electronics or furniture, but also the purchase of clothes or dishes. The revival of trade does not help a slight decrease in prices for non -food products.

“There is a crisis of sales and, accordingly, a decrease in prices for a wide range of technically complex products of long -term use <...>. The drop in prices for cars is less, but their sales collapsed. For the first quarter of new cars sold a quarter less than a year earlier, and in March the fall reached 46%, ”says TsMAKP.

At the same time, food prices are rising, especially "for the poor."

So, according to the results of March, the total price growth rate amounted to 10.3% in annual terms, while “inflation for the poor”, calculated by the consumption of the least wealthy citizens, amounted to 17%.

In the “basket for the poor”, the experts of the TsMAKP included a minimum set of food (without animal oil, alcoholic beverages, a number of food products), as well as medicines, detergents, housing and communal services and transport.

All this, in turn, depreciates the results of the social policy of the government. So, for example, according to Rosstat, the real size of the accrued pensions grew in February by 2% of the year. But if you calculate it by “inflation for the poor”, then pensions are reduced in real terms - by 4%.

For money - yes!

A day after the Ministry of Economic Development reported a decrease in its expectations from economic growth, government statistics confirmed that the main driver of the economy began to slow down - industry at the state order.

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How the obscure economy lives

According to Rosstat on the dynamics of industrial growth in the 1st quarter of 2025, the March level of production corresponds to July 2024, i.e. For nine months, progress is zero and only +0.7% g/g after +0.2% g/g in February.

If in two years the industry has grown by 4.5% and +16.1% in 6 years (to the well-time March 2019), then according to the results of the 1st square. 2025th growth by only 1% g/g +6.3% to 1 sq. 2023th and +15.4% to the 1st square meter. 2019.

• Processing increased by 4.3% g/g in March (minimum pace in two years), for the 1st square. 2025th growth of 5% g/g +14.3% to 1 sq. 2023th and +34.6% to the 1st square meter. 2019.

• The extraction of minerals has sharply reduced by 4% g/g in March (the greatest reduction in four years), for the 1st square. 2025, a decrease of 3.5% g/g, (-2.9%) to the 1st square meter. 2023 and (-4.4%) to the 1st square. 2019.

• The production of electricity and heat decreased by 2.2% g/g in March, in the 1st square meter. 2025, a decrease of 4.1% g/g +0.7% in two years and +4.9% in six years.

• Water supply, collection and disposal of waste decreased by 1.3% g/g in March, for the 1st square. 2025 without change to last year +1.1% in two years and +13.1% in six years.

... So in Russian industry now everything is difficult with the exception of “processing”, but there are also problems here. Of the 23 basic industries of the manufacturing industry, only 7 are shown positive dynamics.

This is the so -called "Anchor" industries supported by a government order. That is, the dynamics of industry for the past three years depends on the scale of the budget impulse and the willingness of the government to pursue its policy, regardless of any long -term costs.

But with these industries not everything is so simple.

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How metal products live

• The production of finished metal products has increased by only 5.8% g/g against 62% growth in May 2024.

• The production of computers and microelectronics grew by 13.2% g/g versus 45% in October 2024.

• The production of electric equipment was reduced by 6% g/g against 12% growth at the end of 2024.

• The production of other vehicles is growing by 37% g/g, which is close to the peak pace-about 45% in September 2024.

Only the production of “other vehicles” is growing, and a high pace is maintained in the production of medicines, and in all other industries, especially the civil segment, a reduction in production or a sharp slowdown. Plus 0.7% of annual growth in March is due exclusively by the costs “for the performance of tasks”.

Want a new height - give money! And resources too.

The question is, who from who to take them?

Not a crisis, but a signal

In the meantime, the government makes it clear that with money not everything is so simple.

“Now the main risk is the deployment of trade wars, and, accordingly, a decrease in the export capabilities of countries, including Russia. We reduced the dependence on oil and gas, and today the share of oil and gas revenues in the structure of federal budget revenues is only a quarter of revenues. Some time ago, this share was almost 50%. The budget rule determines the basic price at the level of $ 60 per barrel, however, today this cut -off probably no longer meets the challenges of time, ” - Anton Siluanov, Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation, speaking at the expanded collegium of the Ministry of Finance on April 23.

“... We have to be more modest somewhere in our desires, to provide a greater return on each budget ruble,” the minister added.

The “cut -off price” in the budget rule is the minimum oil price at which the budget can spend money “conditionally free”. Now it is $ 60/barrel: if oil is more expensive, extra incomes go to reserves (FNB), if cheaper, the budget saves. If you reduce the outcome price to $ 50, then the government will begin to save earlier and spend 0.8% of GDP less (this is ~ 1.7 trillion rubles per year).

Prices - in theory - will grow more slowly, because there will be less money in the economy. But this also means reducing currency sales

(dollars/euros) in the market. The ruble will weaken by about 6% (if oil is $ 50, then instead of 90 rubles per dollar can be 95–100 rubles./$ 1).

An additional factor: in 2025, the Central Bank will stop selling a currency from the National Welfare Fund (another –1.3 trillion rubles), which will increase the pressure on the ruble.

Nominally, expenses will not be cut (they will even grow from 222 trillion in 2025 to 243 trillion in 2026). But the share of expenses in GDP will decrease (from 19% to 18%).

Yes, the budget will become more stable - fewer risks of sharp contractions of social payments. But imported goods (technology, medicines) will become more expensive. State orders can be reduced, and it will be more difficult to take loans to business (due to the weak ruble of the Central Bank, it can hold high rates).

This is not a crisis, but already a signal: the government is preparing for life in the conditions of cheap oil.

What did Gvichchardini warn about?

We can say that the RF Economics is at a crossroads-and the economic theory says that in such a situation there are three ways to maintain economic growth:

1. sharply increase labor productivity, which is possible only in the long term;

2. Increase the number of workers in the economy. Naturally, this is quickly not done, and a quick way (growth of migration) in Russia is now obviously unpopular;

3. You can increase public debt - and due to this to finance investments. But the Russian government does not like (and even afraid) of the budget deficit and growth of debts - it remembers too well how in Russian realities the loan has the ability to become uncontrollable. Because recovering debts from the permanent oligarchy is an unthinkable thing, and it will only mean such a penalty to shift money from pocket to pocket.

In the first quarter of 2025, the budget deficit amounted to almost 2.2 trillion rubles, or 1% of GDP, follows from the preliminary assessment of the Ministry of Finance. This is already more than financially for a year, but it is too early to draw conclusions.

The problem is different, and the essence of this problem five hundred years ago was formulated by the brilliant Florence Francesco Gvichchardini:

“Who wants to spend less during the campaign, he spends more; Nothing requires such money and such an unbridled spending as a campaign; The more abundant the reserves, the sooner the campaigns end; Who does not count with this in order to save money, he delays the matter and spends incomparably more. Therefore, it is most dangerous to start a campaign when there is no major money, and to release funds from time to time; This is a way not to finish the campaign, but to nourish it. ”

We can say differently - in a normal situation, the government has an understandable amount of budget expenditures and less understandable (depending on volatile macroeconomic indicators) the amount of income.

Revenues can grow - this is how it was twenty years in a row, when the government received a lot, and tried to spend less.

But now the government has been in another situation - in the conditions of foreign trade restrictions and simplification of the economy, the ceiling of income (especially oil and gas), it can imagine easily and easily imagine how these income can decrease. But the expenses of the government in the current conditions have no ceiling.

Suppose the government will “end in the budget” - so what? Will it give up its policy? There is no reason to assume this.

Therefore, the government now thinks - when, how and on what scale:

• get the money;

• To redirect resources to priority industries.

For this, the government can:

• increase taxation (so far we see the growth of fines and duties, as well as various restrictions on consumption and any ideas for monitoring economic amateur performances - from registration of bloggers to total pets accounting, which at the macro level is the same as tax growth);

• redistribute the money “inside” the budget, transferring from the article to the article, which is already happening;

• I don’t really want to borrow from people, banks, business, business, because you need to pay high interest rates, but in order not to pay high interest rates, you need to reduce the rate and level of risks, but you will reduce the rate - everyone will take loans again and run to stores, presenting the demand for foreign exchange earnings and resources that are not enough for the “manufacturing industry”;

• можно печатать деньги (расширять коммерческий кредит, снижая ставку) — то есть провоцировать рост цен (Минэк, предупреждая в своем прогнозе о росте инфляции, на это нам и намекнул).

И все это может затянуться надолго, как Гвиччардини тоже объяснял:

«То, что должно пасть не от одного удара, а от истощения сил, живет гораздо дольше, чем думалось вначале; происходит это оттого, что движение идет медленнее, чем можно было бы думать, и оттого, что люди, решившись терпеть, делают и выносят гораздо больше, чем этому можно было бы поверить; действительно, мы видим, что какая-нибудь кампания, которая должна была бы закончиться из-за голода, трудных условий, недостатка денег и тому подобных обстоятельств, тянулась дольше, чем это казалось возможным.

Так, жизнь чахоточного всегда длится вопреки мнению врачей и окружающих, так и торговец, загубленный процентами, раньше, чем стать банкротом, держится дольше, чем думали».

В любом случае, рецепта пока нет, а если он и появится, то лекарство окажется горьким.