Enriched Iran

How will negotiations end with a transaction or a missile blow?

Negotiations between the United States and Iran on the topic of nuclear weapons are ongoing. Experts consider a military blow to the atomic industry objects of the Islamic Republic. What will happen before?

New round

On the next Saturday, April 26, a new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran should take place in Oman, said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi. “Next Saturday, we will meet again [with the special representative of US President Stephen Whitkoff] to discuss the results of the experts,” Aragchi told the air of Iranian state television. Prior to this, the delegations of the countries have already twice exchanged views on the settlement of disagreements around the Iranian nuclear program.

On April 12, the first round of indirect negotiations to discuss the situation around the Nuclear Program of the Islamic Republic, through the mediation of the US and Iran, was through the mediation of the Oman’s authorities. The Iranian delegation was headed by Abbas Aragchi, the American - Stephen Whitkoff. The next time, indirect negotiations, which lasted almost four hours, were held on April 19 in Rome with the mediation of Foreign Minister Oman Badra al-Busaidi. The delegations of the United States and Iran were in different rooms and exchanged messages through the Oman intermediary.

According to the statement of the foreign policy of Oman, following the results of negotiations in Rome, the parties discuss an agreement that will allow Iran to maintain the possibility of developing peaceful nuclear energy. Agreements must ensure that Tehran’s refusal from the development of nuclear weapons and the removal of sanctions imposed on it.

Iran had already accused Israel of trying to disrupt negotiations:

"A kind of coalition is formed to undermine and disrupt the diplomatic process",

- told reporters the representative of the Foreign Ministry of Iran Esmail Bakai. He added that Israel is behind the coalition.

At the same time, Reuters, citing sources, reports that Israel did not exclude attacks on Iran’s nuclear objects in the coming months, although Donald Trump told the prime minister of Israel Benjamin Netanya, that the United States has not yet wanted to support such a step.

“In recent months, Israel offered the Trump administration a number of options for attacking Iran’s objects in late spring and summer, sources said,” writers writes. “According to sources, plans include a combination of air strikes and operations of the Commandos, which can delay the ability of Tehran to use its nuclear program for several months, a year or more.”

The fate of the region

“The fate of the Middle Eastern region depends on the negotiations that are currently taking place without exaggeration,” the military observer David Sharp, the new-Europe, says. - At the same time, for Ayatollah Ali Hameni, to sit at the same table with the Americans, apparently, meant to step on their own throat. Ayatollah cannot forgive Donald Trump in 2018 from a nuclear transaction. In addition, the spiritual leader of the Iranians is very angry for the elimination of his closest ally of Kasem Suleimani. It was extremely difficult for Khamenei to take a conversation in the language of ultimatums and requirements. Indeed, if the agreement with Iran is not signed in the coming months, Tehran is threatened with the use of military force. ”

David Sharp claims that, according to open sources, the inner circle of Ayatollah Khamenei literally with great difficulty convinced him to go to negotiations.

At the moment, the Iranian side, according to David Sharp, sets itself a goal to either create a nuclear bomb, or be one step from its creation. Such a situation will become a kind of insurance policy for Tehran from military operations by potential opponents and will allow almost anything to create in foreign policy. Iran invested a lot of effort, tens of billions of dollars and many years into his nuclear project. The cessation of this program would be for the ayatall recognition of the failure, as well as the rejection of huge resources spent. In fact, it would look surrender.

“The Iranians, it seems to me, want to wait out the cadence of Trump in the hope that the next US administration it will be easier for them to realize their dreams about nuclear weapons,

- David Sharp is sure. - But in Iran the option of performing a sharp jerk to the bomb is openly discussed. Such a desire is caused by the weakening or complete destruction of the “tentacles”, which Tehran handed to many ends of the Middle East. The terrorist proxies of Iran are defeated, and now in order to achieve inviolability, a nuclear bomb is required. Israel, on the contrary, cannot allow Iran to create such weapons. Therefore, a jerk to the bomb will very quickly bring to Tehran the very sad consequences that they fear there. Therefore, it is officially that Iran states that the transaction should allow the ayatall regime to enrich uranium, but not to the weapons limits. ”

Underground objects

According to the military expert, the former employee of the special services and the Israeli police, Sergei Midal, there is no confirmation that Tehran’s authorities finally decided to create a nuclear charge. “It is known that Iran has already enriched a certain amount of uranium up to 60 percent,” says Sergey Migdal, Novy-Europe. - This is still not enough to create a nuclear bomb. But we can already talk about about 200 kilograms. In case of their further enrichment, the Ayatall regime will be able to produce several nuclear charges over the next months. There is a production base for this. Many objects of the atomic program are well protected, and some are underground. So, the Fordo Uranus enrichment plant is located at a depth of 100 meters under a rock. But this does not mean that all these enterprises are invulnerable. For example, on October 26, 2024, the Israeli Air Force struck the important object of the Iranian nuclear program in Parchin. There was a very valuable equipment imported earlier from China. "

Sergei Migdal explains that even the most well -protected underground object has weaknesses. As a rule, we are talking about entrances and outputs, the destruction of which is made by a powerful high -precision weapon even the deepest bunker with a deadly trap for its inhabitants. The same famous Fordo has two entrances, the location of which is known. If necessary, the Israeli defense army can securely seal them by turning the enterprise into a huge burial ground.

In Fordo, Uranus is enriched in special centrifuges. This is a long and complex process. According to Sergei Migdal,

At the Iranian city of Busher, the Iranian Bushera, built by Soviet experts, is regularly taking place of the IAEA inspections and constant Russian control is underway. It is impossible to enrich nuclear materials in such conditions.

In parallel with the work on the enrichment of Uranus, the Ayatall mode continues the project to develop a nuclear ammunition mechanism. Indeed, to create such a complex system, significant scientific developments are required. You can use the old achievements of the United States, the USSR, and also use the experience of North Korea and Pakistan. At the moment, it is not known exactly what result the Iranians have already achieved.

Another important issue is the creation of Iran with the delivery of nuclear weapons. In this, the Ayatall regime succeeded enough. Indeed, during President Obama, a nuclear transaction was concluded in 2015, the issue of developing ballistic missiles was not in any way. And Tehran now has a serious weapon. Iran, according to Sergey Migdal, has a whole line of missiles, from 300 to 900 kilometers. They can be used to attack the countries of the Persian Gulf and specifically on the American military bases located on their territory. And there are Shahab missiles, the distance of which is 2 thousand kilometers. They are able to reach Israel and carry nuclear weapons.

Window of possibilities

“For Israel, the Iranian nuclear project poses an existential danger, in contrast to more or less abstract political inconvenience for other countries,” says Military Expert David Gandelman, Military Expert. - Therefore, Israel would not want any negotiations and compromises on the Iranian nuclear problem, but I would like the United States to hit its power and solve the issue in a military way, or at least let the Israelites do it. But Trump, at least for now, chose negotiations. ”

If negotiations, then, according to David Handelman, Israel would like to receive the “Libyan model”, that is, the complete elimination of the nuclear project in the bud. But the Iranian leadership saw what happened to Gaddafi after a nuclear disarmament, so it will not go for this, and now negotiations are not about the complete elimination of the project, but the promotion stop, with the possibility of maintaining the enrichment of uranium to the minimum level, possibly with the export of uranium to the third country, etc. “If as a result of Trump signed a nuclear -based parameters from which he himself came out in 2018, it will be a funny story, ”emphasizes David Handelman. “Iran will receive his frozen money back, partial lifting the sanctions, and secretly continue nuclear developments in the hope of changing Trump and then turn wider.”

David Sharp calls the return to the 2015 deal frankly by a failure approach. After all, the Iranian threat will either remain in today's form or significantly intensify. However, it will be difficult for one Israel to go against the will of Trump and attack Iran, which concluded an agreement. Therefore, the Benjamin Netanyahu government advocates the “Libyan” version of the agreements, which involves deep dismantling of the entire Iranian nuclear program under the necessary international control. This will discard this whole program several years ago and will make a quick restoration impossible. This option is possible only in the case of a threat of a large -scale military blow hanging over the Ayatall regime and the adoption of suffocating economic sanctions. However, David Sharp recalls how in 2003 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei turned part of the nuclear program, which consists in the direct creation of an explosive device.

Sergei Migdal says that in 2013 Ayatollah Khamenei issued a fatwa (decree) to prohibit the development of nuclear weapons. Although the command of the Corps of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution recently turned to the spiritual leader with a request to reconsider its decision, but so far this fatwa has not been canceled.

“Israel sees a window of possibilities in the events,” says Sergey Migdal.

- President Trump publicly promised that Iran would not have nuclear weapons. In the Iranian authorities, there are many who are ready to compromise: termination of work on a nuclear program in exchange for relieving sanctions. This is necessary for lifting the Iranian economy.

Tehran also expects to leave himself the opportunity to enrich Uranus to a small percentage, calling it his sacred right. It is interesting that the Foreign Minister Iran Abbas Arakchi recently proposed building 20 reactors in the country to generate electricity and even called to participate in this project of Americans. However, the national security adviser Michael Waltz, Secretary of State Mark Rubio and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegset demand that there was no enrichment at all. And all the already enriched Uranus would be transferred to Russia or Switzerland. ”

Israel, according to Sergei Migdal, would have arranged a deal in which any work on Iran’s nuclear program would be folded under the control of international inspectors. Also mandatory conditions for the conclusion of the agreement will be the refusal of Iran from further work on the program for creating long-range ballistic missiles and the end of support for groups-satellites: various terrorist organizations like Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hizballs, Yemen Husites, etc.

Work behind the scenes

Against the background of negotiations, the United States and Israel prepare its power component. In order to seriously consider the possibility of applying a military option, it should be well prepared, Sergei Migdal notes. No wonder last year the Israeli Air Force struck the air defense systems, disabled them on the eve of new attacks. And the US aircraft is now working out its actions on the Yemenic Husites.

“Iran can hit Iran without the support of the United States,” says Sergey Migdal. “However, this, of course, is an extreme measure.” It is much more likely that Israel will influence Donald Trump, lobbying his own interests through his friends. Benjamin Netanyahu will never argue or bargain with Trump, but will do all the work behind the scenes. So, the president may be affected by long -standing Israeli allies: the son -in -law of the head of the United States Jared Kushner, Elon Musk, the largest sponsor of the Republicans Miriam Adelson, the new ambassador of the United States in Israel Mike Hakabi. "

“While negotiations are underway, all sides hold the weapon in the scabbard,” adds David Gandelman. - And the Americans, whose shock group pulled on the Middle East so far acts only against the Husites, but hangs over the Iranian head. And the Israelis, with whom Trump does not yet allow his sword. And the Iranians with their promise someday apply the third missile blow to Israel. At the moment, in general, the process is going into an undesirable side for Israel, let's look at the sequel. ”

David Handelman says that

Israel, in addition to the plans for a joint blow, prepares its own military option without the participation of Americans. But if Trump is against it, the Israeli leadership will be extremely difficult to go across.

For this, special political determination is needed, which, according to David Handelman, for example, showed Menajem Begin in 1981 when attacking the Iraqi reactor without preliminary warning of the Americans. After that, the Roagan administration voted for the Anti -Israeli resolution of the UN Security Council, delayed Israel of new aircraft and generally expressed its displeasure in every possible way. Israel against the background of the expected strengthening of the war with Iran will need the continuation of American political, military and financial support. Therefore, it is very desirable to get a green light from Washington for such an operation.

“Donald Trump will have to begin to implement his promises to life,” emphasizes David Sharp. - And this means that you will have to give a green light to the American military on their own actions and on joint blows with Israel.

An additional aircraft carrier group group, headed by the Karl Vincon aircraft carrier, has already been transferred to the region, which strengthened the group of Harry Truman already located off the coast of Yemen.

Aircraft strikes also include destroyers and submarines, carrying Tomagavk winged missiles. On the Diego-Kharsia atall in the Indian Ocean, US strategic aircraft aircraft are relocated: in 2 Stealth, in 52 and 1. From this position it will be very convenient for them to attack Iran. These bombers can use special ammunition that can hit even well -protected goals at great depths. And at this time, the air defense of Israel is additionally intensified. ”

According to David Sharp, in the case of strike by aviation of the United States and Israel, Iran will be forced to respond. For example, the Ayatall mode may try to block oil delivery from the Gulf countries. This, in turn, will lead to the fact that the list of Iranian facilities that can become targets will increase by going beyond the limits of nuclear industries and affecting other key infrastructures of the country. Such blows will cause catastrophic consequences for Iran and even jeopardize the stability of his regime.