"Trump does not help anyone"

What will the United States now become for Ukraine - explains Ukrainian political scientist Vladimir Fesenko

On the hundredth day of the presidency of Donald Trump Ukraine and the United States, they still signed an agreement on the bowels. The parties on a parity basis create an investment fund, which will dispose of income from natural resources and infrastructure facilities in Ukraine. At the same time, the United States receive preferences when concluding contracts, but Ukraine remains the mistress of its subsoil. At the same time, we are talking only about new objects, all existing licenses will remain with the owners. There are no more references in the document that in 2022–2024 the United States provided military assistance on debt, and now we must pay. But there are no security guarantees for Ukraine, where Vladimir Zelensky insisted in February.

Against this background, after signing the agreement, on May 2, the representative of the US State Department Tammy Bruce said that the United States refuses the role of an intermediary in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The Americans, she said, will no longer “fly to the other end of the world in an instant to moderate meetings,” let the parties agree themselves, as they know. How all this will affect the ability of Ukraine to resist aggression, what further the role of the United States will be in the conclusion of the world, whether the Americans still see the allies in Ukraine, says Vladimir Fesenko, the Ukrainian political scientist, head of the Penta Political Research Center.

- What does the statement of the State Department mean for Ukraine that the United States refuses the role of an intermediary in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia?

- I have certain doubts that this will be fulfilled, but if it is, this means that negotiations have come to a dead end. I do not know what they think about this in the State Department, but without the participation of an intermediary, whoever it is - the USA, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, China - peaceful negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are impossible. The level of mutual distrust of the greatest. This is noticeable by statements on both sides, even starting negotiations will not work. Even the United States did not try to put Ukraine and Russia at one table. And here they think that direct negotiations will suddenly begin?

If the United States really get out of negotiations, then risks will arise for a resource agreement. Because one of the motives of this agreement is to achieve peace in Ukraine. At least for Trump, this motive is relevant. If the world does not come in Ukraine, then the resource agreement will dust in the archives, it will never work. Even if the Verkhovna Rada ratifies him. And problems can also arise with ratification: if it becomes obvious that the United States has received this deal, and now they stop active peace negotiations, but at the same time they are preparing the meeting of Trump and Putin, Ukrainian deputies will have the question of why ratify this agreement. Why, if Ukraine does not get anything from this?

- The United States remain an ally of Ukraine.

- On paper. But what is this ally if he receives an instrument of influence on Ukraine, while continuing negotiations with our enemy, but refuses to participate in achieving peace?

Everything that is spelled out in this agreement will only work in one case: if the war ceases. If the war does not stop, then there will be no investments. Of course, there is an option that some Ukrainian experts consider: through the mechanisms of this agreement, Ukraine will be able to receive weapons by making contributions to this fund.

“Isn't that help?”

- Yes, but this will need money. There is practically no free money in Ukraine. A more real option for us is to buy American weapons with the help of European partners, we are not losing anything then, but we will receive weapons.

Another thing is that now there is a difficult dilemma for deputies. On the one side,

If it is noticeable that the Americans received their bonus - an agreement, but they refuse all other obligations, then it is not very profitable for us to continue this work. On the other hand, refusing is to run into conflict with the United States and lose the opportunity to even buy American weapons.

I still hope that the statement of the State Department is the pressure both to Ukraine and Russia, so that they continue negotiations. So far we do not hear such statements from Trump. As for the State Department, I have my own version: it seems to me that Marco Rubio is just tired. Here he is in a stupor, he does not know what to do. But the approach itself, that the United States will not be an intermediary, will not initiate negotiations, means that there will be no negotiations themselves.

In addition, if there are no peaceful negotiations, but negotiations between the United States and Russia will continue, this will mean: Russia has achieved its goal. It is beneficial for Russia that peace negotiations to stop the war in Ukraine cease, but the dialogue between Trump and Putin continued. This is what Putin wants.

- It turns out, for now, albeit at the level of rhetoric, but the United States did exactly what Putin achieved? He is left alone, letting him fight, how much does he want?

- No, wait until this happened. The meeting between Trump and Putin is postponed, there is no agreement on her. In one of the last statements, Trump demanded Putin's consent to a deal, otherwise assistance to Ukraine will be increased.

“I don’t remember Trump directly saying something about help.”

-No, no, with Trump there will be no help to Ukraine, this is understood in Ukraine. But we are talking about the fact that Ukraine will receive more.

- More - what, if not help?

- We are talking about the sale of weapons, which should go through the fund created by the agreement. Trump receives a debt dependence of Ukraine. He did not achieve the debt of previous help, the Ukrainian side managed to get away from such a trap, but this form of Lend-Lease appears: the United States will supply Ukraine through schemes related to the fund, receiving in return control of part of the resources of Ukraine. True, we are talking about new resources that still need to be developed, but they should actually become the key to the return of the debt.

- Decades will pass before the fund really earns. If he once earned at all. What is the benefit of Trump?

- That's why I say:

If the war continues, the fund will not work. And this is already a question for the USA. If they want the fund to work, it is necessary to stop the war.

This means that the statement of the State Department is working against this fund. Or the fund will not work. More precisely, formally he can earn shortly after ratification of the agreement by the Verkhovna Rada ...

- Only there will be no money in it.

- One of the problems is that we do not know the details of the technical agreement. So far, a political document was announced - an intergovernmental agreement. In fact, this is a frame agreement, which was planned to be signed on February 28, but in a slightly different form. And we do not know, for example, how decisions will be made. Parity is declared - three votes for three. How will the profit be distributed? What will be the investment mechanism in the initial period? Should there be some initial contributions? Suppose there will be a scheme in which Ukraine, I say conditionally, receives a billion weapon from the USA, finds this billion and introduces it to the fund. And what does the American side bring there?

- So the weapon is ...

- Here we do not know how this will happen. And there are a lot of such questions now.

- Why such a mystery? Why could not all be published all the details?

- It's not about mystery. The parties, at least the Americans, were in a hurry to sign an agreement on Trump's “hundred days”, although questions remained. But, in addition to the political intergovernmental agreement, you need to agree and sign two more documents. One is technical, something like the charter that will regulate the work of the fund, make decisions, distribution of profit, and so on. Another is an agreement between the fund and the Ukrainian operator, the agency of private-state partnership. Now we do not see these documents. Ukrainian sources say they have not yet been agreed. Although yesterday the US Minister of Finance Scott Immentin said that all documents were signed.

- Is this a normal situation in such agreements when part is already signed, and part is not agreed?

- This can be compared with the situation where there is a law, and there are by -laws, they still need to be developed. The law is adopted by parliament, it is public, then by -laws are adopted - government decisions, regulatory documents and other acts that will ensure the work of the law. These documents are also usually open, but they are no longer approved by parliament. Here is a similar story. The political agreement does not give an answer to all questions, it formulates general principles. But then operating documents governing the activities of the Fund itself will be signed.

- Now, in framework, the agreement looks more profitable for Ukraine. Somewhere I read such a statement: judging by these negotiations, the book “The Art of the transaction” should have been written by Ukrainians, not Trump.

- This is a beautiful phrase. I also jokingly say that our negotiators can now give advice on how to negotiate with the Americans. In fact, if this agreement were not beneficial to the Americans, if they had not seen a potential tool for making a profit in it, they would not sign it.

- What instruments of profit can be seen here, if it is not known actually what this profit will be received? What are the resources, where do they lie, how many are there? ..

- Wait. You still need to start with investment in development. Suppose, as we have already talked, the United States contributes to weapons, Ukraine - money. Suppose there will be a billion dollars in the fund. But this is not enough for serious developments of natural fossils, especially rare earth metals. Investments will need much more, and perennials. This is one problem.

The second problem is no less significant. Now the agreement refers to the fact that the fund will earn only on new licenses.

-Because the current developments actually already have owners.

- Exactly. And where to get new licenses? They are not, because most of the potential deposits in Ukraine are already licensed. They are already belonging to Ukrainian investors.

- Zelensky is accused of having already begun to do the same as Putin: to take away from the current owners their assets in order to redistribute in the future.

- No one has been taking anything yet. That is, theoretically this is possible, and I remember how such a redistribution occurred at Kuchma or Yanukovych. But now is another situation. If this begins now, it will cause a serious reaction in Ukraine. I do not believe that the current Ukrainian authorities will be able to effectively carry out such a redistribution of the market. They can try, but this will cause a huge resistance and the formation of a coalition, which will simply bury all this.

The colleagues with whom I spoke agree that the fund should be open so that investors from the outside can include it.

- Not only Ukrainian and American governments, but also private investors?

- The most optimal, in my opinion, mechanism. A Ukrainian investor comes and says: I have a license, but there is no money to develop a field. He makes a license and becomes a shareholder of the fund through the Ukrainian Agency of private-state partnership. Americans, respectively, give money to develop the field. At the same time, both the investor and the license owner receive their part of the profit.

- What to do with the alleged or already explored deposits that are under minefields and in the occupied territories? How are they taken into account?

- If we talk about deposits in the occupied territories, then nothing will work there, they are not controlled by Ukraine. As for the mined territories, I already said: while fighting is underway, the agreement will not work.

- Ukraine is called one of the most mined countries in the world. Are the alleged field developers ready for this?

- So we will go into details that are not of fundamental importance today. Yes, this is a problem. But mine is going on. And minefields are mainly a combat zone, conditionally it is one percent of the territory of Ukraine. Some deposits can be in the combat zone, but in any case, first you need to stop the war. The fundamental problems are now different, they are financial, legal, organizational and partly political in nature.

- Ukraine has achieved that the guarantees of its security are spelled out in the agreement, but they are not. How important is you, in your opinion, that this had to be done?

- With Trump, in any case, you can forget about direct security guarantees. Zelensky at first had such illusions.

And the other day, from one acquaintance of the deputy of the Rada, actively working with the United States, I heard what she was hinted at in the State Department in March: the more often you will tell Trump about security guarantees, the more negative effect you will get. The Americans see the security guarantee that Ukraine will have their assets, and the assets are large. Then, they say, the United States will protect something. Some of our businessmen agree with this, politicians are not very, and practice confirms that politics are right.

-Neither in 2014 nor in 2022 no foreign assets of Ukraine helped.

- There will be no guarantees of safety at the fifth article by NATO, we should not live in illusions, fantasies and utopias.

- In the territories occupied by Russia, there may be deposits that will greatly interest Trump. Are you not afraid that he will be extended to Russia and begin to negotiate with Putin under his conditions?

- With Trump, everything is possible. And the Russians will surely offer such options, and multi -income. They can offer joint developments, for example, in the Donetsk region, and I even heard that Ilon Musk had already signed something there with Mishustin. It seems to me that this is all conspiracy. However, they can offer. And then say: you want to make a profit - recognize the Donetsk region as part of the Russian Federation. Yes, this is quite possible. But if this happens, Ukraine denounces the agreement.

- If the United States really abandon the role of an intermediary in negotiations ...

- So far it is only a threat, this is a pressure, but not a refusal. And I think that at least the next two weeks or longer they will not refuse. Apparently, the Americans will be determined how to act further.

- Even during the election campaign, Trump spoke not about the role of an intermediary as such, but about future actions of the United States: if Ukraine refuses the conclusion of the world, then they will stop helping, and if Russia refuses, then Ukraine is naked as Putin did not dream of. Why did Trump still have not implemented the second part of the threat? Why is it still about some sanctions that Russia is not very afraid of?

- There are different sanctions. There are those who are afraid in Russia. Increased duties for Russia will really not give anything due to meager bilateral trade. But if there are secondary sanctions on Russian oil in global markets, then this is already serious.

- The bill on five hundred percentage of duties for those who buy Russian oil have already offered Lindsay Graham, but there is no feeling that this scared Russia ...

- Listen, 500 percent are numbers for PR, for a loud effect.

- Understand. But why not help Ukraine just as Trump threatened during the campaign?

- Because Trump does not help anyone. He pressed on Ukraine because Ukraine depends on the United States and it is easier to put pressure on it. In the United States, it was considered that this is the most optimal way to achieve the goal.

Trump does not crush Putin because he wants to negotiate with him, he believes that you can agree with him. And this is the problem.

Therefore, he used the concessions method to Putin.

Now the United States is trying to change tactics. While they are only threatening. And the bill Lindsay Graham, which you mentioned, is also only a threat, a warning: either you are agreeing, or we begin to put pressure on you very hard. Many are sure that there will be no pressure further, because while Trump expects to agree with Putin, he wants negotiations with him.

- Why?

- Because in front of him there is no goal of defeating Russia. And there is no goal of the victory of Ukraine. Trump wants to end the war, this is so, but he believes that this can be achieved by concessions. Now this method has not worked, maybe it will apply another. But while he has the illusions that you can agree with Putin, there will be no severe pressure.

-In the event that, nevertheless, the United States as an intermediary is eliminated to what extent Ukraine can count on other intermediaries: Turkey, China, Europe, Middle Eastern monarchies?

-After some time, I think, other intermediaries will appear. Но даже если американцы уйдут сейчас, если возникнет пауза, через какое-то время они вернутся. Хотя бы потому, что не захотят видеть Китай в роли посредника. Или с благословения американцев может действовать, например, Турция.

Надо понимать простую и, может быть, парадоксальную вещь. Извините за резкость, но администрация Трампа в переговорном процессе действует тупо. Просто предельно тупо, ошибка на ошибке. Они пошли на предварительные уступки Путину, действуя, кстати, вопреки рекомендациям самого Трампа в его известной книжке. Если сейчас они считают, что, выходя на словах из переговорного процесса, они его стимулируют, то это тоже ошибка. Эффект будет прямо противоположный. Повторю, что Украина и Россия не смогут вести прямые переговоры, они не смогут договариваться без посредников. И этого абсолютно не понимают в США, они вообще не понимают взаимоотношений между Украиной и Россией.

— Вы считаете, что это именно непонимание? Ощущение такое, что Трамп что ни сделает — всё на пользу Путину.

— Вы еще скажите про «агента Краснова». Я такие дешевые конспирологические мифы вообще не рассматриваю. Хочет кто-то верить, что Трамп работает на Россию? Ну, пусть верит. Но тогда мы бы видели с его стороны другие действия, они бы с Путиным еще в феврале встретились. А они до сих пор не могут договориться.

— Почему тогда Трампа так зациклило на России? Почему уже три месяца он долбится в эту стену, хотя эффект понятен? Ему так нужны отношения с Россией?

— Он хочет восстановить отношения между США и Россией, и я вижу для этого как минимум две причины. Их на самом деле больше, но я назову две. Первая — у России есть огромные природные ресурсы. А вы видите, какой у Трампа интерес к природным ресурсам?

— Я бы сказала, несколько неадекватный.

— Совершенно верно: гипертрофированный, ненормальный, но он есть. Второе — оттянуть Россию от Китая. Эта идея нравится и демократам. Поэтому попытки перезагрузить отношения с Россией, договориться с ней предпринимали и демократы. Сейчас Трамп считает, что можно оттянуть Россию от Китая и таким образом ослабить его.

И есть еще один момент: Трамп в принципе склонен договариваться с «крутыми парнями». С теми, у кого ядерное оружие, у кого много ресурсов…

— И кто просто наглый, как Ким.

— Да-да, вот таких он уважает. Может быть, потому что сам хочет быть таким. Вот с ними он готов договариваться. А на тех, кого он считает слабее, он оказывает давление. В этом мировоззрение Трампа. Это даже не рациональный расчет, а часть его мировоззрения.

— Если судить по ресурсной сделке, то украинские дипломаты и сам Зеленский раскусили Трампа и научились с ним работать. Что они могут сделать в сложившейся ситуации?

— Они и делают то, что нужно делать. Надо договариваться с Трампом, надо выстраивать конструктивные отношения с США. Самое главное — не ссориться, сохранять хотя бы остатки партнерских отношений. Ресурсное соглашение как раз вписывается в эту стратегию. Это нужно в первую очередь американцам. Украине соглашение дает возможность сохранить партнерские отношения и в будущем получать оружие. Ну и потенциально всё-таки оно дает нам надежду на достижение мира.