Are Russia and Ukraine approaching dialogue

Putin offers negotiations “without conditions”, Trump supports him. Kyiv and allies insist: first - cease fire

On the evening of May 10, after the celebration of Victory Day and before the end of the “three-day truce”, Vladimir Putin suddenly called a night press conference in the Kremlin. On it, he proposed to resume direct negotiations with Ukraine on May 15 in Istanbul. Putin did not mention the proposal of the 30-day truce, on which Ukraine and its allies insisted.

How in Kyiv they responded to this proposal, what position the United States and European countries occupy, and whether negotiations are possible “without preliminary conditions” (that is, on the terms of the Kremlin) - in the review of the “Novaya Gazeta Europe” with comments from the political scientist.

Ukraine stands on its

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky in response to Putin’s statement emphasized: first it is necessary to stop fire.

“It makes no sense to continue the murder even for a day. We expect that Russia will confirm the ceasefire - complete, long and reliable - starting from tomorrow, May 12, and Ukraine is ready to meet, ”he wrote .

The head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andrei Ermak also insisted on a preliminary ceasefire. “Russia should not mask the desire to continue the war under verbal constructions. The ceasefire is the first step towards the end of the war, and it will confirm the readiness of Russia to put an end to the murders, ”he said.

By the evening of May 11, Zelensky even announced his readiness to personally meet with Putin on May 15, if Russia stops shelling.

“We are waiting for the ceasefire from tomorrow - complete and long to give the necessary basis for diplomacy. It makes no sense to delay the murder. And I will wait for Putin on Thursday in Turkey. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for the reasons why they cannot, ”the post in the telegram channel of the President of Ukraine says.

By May 12, it became clear that Russia ignored calls to the immediate cessation of fire. Thus, the Air Force Air Force command reported that on Monday night, 108 drum drones and Imitel drones on the territory of Ukraine.

In early October 2022, Zelensky signed a decree approving the decision of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine on the impossibility of negotiations with Vladimir Putin. At the end of December 2024, the Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov pointed out that Ukraine needs to cancel the effect of the decree in order to discuss the world in the country. In January 2025, Putin alsospoke , commenting on the statements of US President Donald Trump about the need for negotiations to stop the war that Zelensky issued a decree on the ban on negotiations.

The Ukrainian leader at the same time explained that he signed a decree due to the need to stop separatism in the country. “I simply stopped separatism in our state by the fact that I forbade anyone, any political figures in Ukraine to hold certain negotiations with the Russian side, with Putin’s supporters during the war,” he said.

The performance for Trump

At that time, as none of the parties is ready for compromises, the statements of Russia and Ukraine look like attempts to prove to Trump that they are doing everything possible to stop bloodshed.

Putin began a press conference at a non-standard time for himself, about half of the second night-when Washington was an evening prime time in Washington.

Zelensky announced his readiness to meet with Putin shortly after US President Donald Trump wrote on his social network Truth Social that Ukraine should “immediately agree to the Russian proposal for negotiations in Istanbul on May 15:

“At least they will be able to determine whether the transaction is possible, and if not, European leaders and the United States will know how things are and will be able to act accordingly!”

At the end of last week, Trump also wrote about “potentially the Great Day for Russia and Ukraine” and promised that he would continue to work with both sides, “to bring the matter to the end”, and then “focus on restoration and trade”. Big week ahead! " He summed up.

However, the special representative of Trump Kit Kellog supported Ukraine in the demand to stop fire before the negotiations. “As President Trump repeatedly stated, stop the murder! First, it is necessary to declare an unconditional 30-day truce, and during it to begin comprehensive peace negotiations. Not vice versa, ”he published in X.

“It seems to me that everything is clear here: the main spectator of the party that is played out before our eyes,” the president of the United States, ”says political analyst Nikolai Petrov in a conversation with Novo-Europe. - And therefore [the Kremlin] it was necessary to answer the ultimatum from Kyiv and the “support coalition” in order to have time to do this during the American working day. At the same time, those statements that we heard from Kyiv and from Moscow, in general, are deprived of practical meaning and do not carry anything new, ”the expert evaluates.

Support coalition

On May 10, Zelensky meetings with the leaders of France, Germany, Great Britain and Poland were held in Kiev. The coalition of the countries supporting Kyiv designated in the final joint statement: first, a complete ceasefire, which will last at least 30 days, starting on May 12, then negotiations.

If Russia refuses a complete ceasefire, more stringent sanctions on the banking and energy sectors of the Russian Federation will follow, the document says.

According to Politico sources, French President Emmanuel Macron during negotiations in Kiev decided to call Trump and inform him about the meeting. And the head of the United States agreed to support Europe.

The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier that Russia did not agree to a 30-day truce, while the supply of weapons to Ukraine continues.

- The coalition proposed in an ultimatum form what has already been offered many times by Kiev and rejected by the Kremlin. And the Kremlin answered that he himself repeatedly proposed, with the difference that he proposed a specific date of the relatively immediate beginning of negotiations. It looks all ... A little like in kindergarten ... If there were no rivers of blood behind this.

I like, I don’t like whether it is morally or immoral, we see Putin’s strategy, and we see Trump’s strategy, which is not going to get involved in this war: he will either demonstrate at least a temporary end of the battles, or he washes his hands and leaves. And we see a “game” on the part of the Ukrainian leadership, which is understandable, because for them this is a matter of survival - not countries, but them personally. We see the same from the part of the four European leaders who do not offer any strategy, do not say what will happen next and what they really count on, but simply want to look good, but Ukraine pays a very expensive fee , - Petrov argues.

In his opinion, now everything rests on how the US president will behave in this situation. At the same time, the political scientist can hardly imagine that Trump suddenly solidarizes with Ukraine and change his behavior.

- He is strategically unprofitable for him. And then this rhetorical coalition remains, which instead of giving the required amount of money that would replace the share of the United States, to give the required amount of weapons - but it [Ukraine] simply does not, - he pouts his cheeks and makes statements that are not designed for further discussion. They simply expose themselves in such a noble light, ”the expert believes.

According to the interlocutor of Novaya Gazeta Europe,

Trump is unlikely to seriously put pressure on any of the parties: he had long made it clear that he considers this war a matter of Europe, not the United States.

He does not extend the programs of military and financial assistance to Ukraine, and, as the political scientist notes, this position looks consistent. The coordinated statements of European leaders, in his opinion, are hardly able to change Washington's attitude to what is happening.

- But whether the coalition has the following moves after an ultimatum is a big question. They announced cruel sanctions, but it is not clear what specific and from whom. If these are national sanctions, then the UK recently announced a new package of sanctions and, unfortunately, this is not what can quickly change the situation. If the war has been going on for more than three years, it is clear that the Western country cannot have any opportunities to quickly influence in the arsenal and force Russia to go to the conditions unprofitable for it. And then this is just a matter of time and, unfortunately, human lives, ”explains the interlocutor of the“ New-Europe ”.

Is Türkiye ready to negotiate

As the Kremlin reported , Putin called Turkish President Recep Erdogan, and he had already agreed to help negotiate in Istanbul.

“Receps Erdogan entirely supported this Russian proposal ( negotiations with Ukraine. - Approx. Ed. ), Emphasizing the willingness to provide the Istanbul site. The Turkish side will provide all possible assistance in organizing and conducting negotiations, ”the press release says.

According to Petrov, Türkiye behaves as a neighbor, striving to benefit from any development of events - and often she succeeds. Erdogan, as a political scientist notes, tries to demonstrate that under his leadership the country plays a significant role in world politics. However, in reality, this role, according to the interlocutor of Novo-Europe, is rather a passive.

Ankara takes a contradictory position in the war between Russia and Ukraine: publicly supports Kyiv, but at the same time continues to trade with Moscow and participates in the re -export of goods important for the Russian military -industrial complex.

Petrov considers the chances of negotiations on Thursday on Thursday.

-The Kremlin all the time offers not to start something new, but to continue what has already been interrupted without a special explanation. He says that these will not be new negotiations, but the continuation of what was discussed in Istanbul, but on other conditions. This was also on the Black Sea initiative ( “grain transaction” between Ukraine, Turkey, the UN and Russia. - Approx. Ed. ).

It is clear that Ukraine cannot go to this. And, in fact, this is the dead end of the situation: why does Ukraine require a ceasefire for a month, and negotiations someday later? Because the current Ukrainian authorities and Ukrainian society are not ready for those humiliating conditions in which some agreement on the termination of the war is really possible, ”the political scientist explains.

In the spring and summer of 2024, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal published a draft peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine-the result of negotiations held from February to April 2022, including a meeting in Istanbul on March 29.

The documents indicate that Moscow sought to remove the sanctions imposed after 2014, the recognition of Crimea by the Russian, as well as the concessions of the entire East Donbass.

Petrov says that if Trump tries to somehow put pressure on Ukraine, this is unlikely to affect something, since you cannot achieve quick results in the current situation.

- Also, it is impossible to quickly cease fire, this is speculation: it is impossible with such a front length, with low -controlled units, in the absence of control, take and say that from tomorrow we will no longer have fire. This is a fiction. Moreover, this is impossible in relation to the war: if it went for three years, then it will take a very long time to get out of it, agreeing on a lot, ”the expert notes.