"No side has 20 years in reserve"

Direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine ended with the largest exchange of prisoners and willingness to discuss the ceasefire. What next?

In Istanbul, for the first time since the spring of 2022, direct negotiations of Russia and Ukraine were held. Nobody seemed to expect special results from a meeting in the Palace of Dolmabakhche: a delegation, headed by Vladimir Medinsky, which Vladimir Putin eventually sent to Turkey, Vladimir Zelensky considered the “fake”.

As a result, the parties announced the largest exchange of prisoners - according to the formula "1000 per 1000". In addition, according to these acquaintances with the media negotiations, Moscow demanded that Kyiv recognize Crimea to be Russian, and at the same time to withdraw troops from four regions, even if they are partially under occupation. Russia, on the other hand, “took note” of Ukraine’s request for negotiations by Putin and Zelensky. The way to perceive the new round of negotiations, the New Evrop has discussed with a political scientist.

What is the end?

Before the direct contact of the two countries, a tripartite meeting of Turkey, the USA and Ukraine took place. Secretary of State Rubio and Special Supervisor of President Kit Kellog, from Ukraine, participated from the states, from Ukraine - the head of the president’s office Andrei Ermak, Foreign Minister Andrei Sibiga and Minister of Defense Rustem Umarov. And the head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, talked with the representative of the US State Department Michael Anton.

Already after the negotiations, the head of the delegation of Ukraine, the Minister of Defense of the country, Rustem Umarov, said that during the meeting, “all modality” of the ceasefire, as well as a possible meeting of Vladimir Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, were discussed.

It was then that Umarov announced the exchange in the “1000 per 1000” format. Medinsky, in turn, confirmed that a large -scale exchange will be held "in the coming days."

According to Medinsky, the Ukrainian side requested direct negotiations between Putin and Zelensky, and Russia "accepted this request for information." Among other things, the head of the delegation from Moscow also stated that the Russian Federation and Ukraine agreed to represent "a vision of a possible future ceasefire."

The President of Ukraine, as well as the German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and British Prime Minister Kir Starkmer at that time held a joint meeting in Albania. After the negotiations of the Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Turkey, they called US President Donald Trump.

“If Russians refuse a complete and unconditional ceasefire and murders, then there should be strong sanctions. The pressure on Russia should be preserved until Russia is ready to end the war, ”Zelensky said.

What the parties achieved - analysis of the political scientist

In the negotiations in Istanbul, Russia put forward “unrealistic” requirements, in particular, in exchange for a ceasefire, to withdraw the Armed Forces from “several regions within Ukraine” ( the regions of Ukraine recorded in the Constitution of the Russian Federation are implied - these are the Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya regions. - approx. Edits ), a source among Ukrainian diplomats told the Reuters agency. Among other things, according to the Ukrainian broadcaster, Supriklne, the delegation of the Russian Federation demanded that Ukraine recognize Crimea to the Russian.

However, in these conditions there is nothing new, in a conversation with Novo-Europe, political analyst Georgy Chizhov emphasized: Russia puts forward the requirements that it posed to Ukraine earlier.

The main of them is to legally recognize the control of the Russian Federation over six regions of Ukraine, including Sevastopol and Crimea, and, accordingly, withdraw Ukrainian troops from the regions occupied by the Russian Federation.

- In fact, Russia is going to deprive Ukraine of sovereignty, which, of course, outside the Ukrainian red lines. And this, obviously, will not happen, ”says the political scientist.

Nobody expected special results from today's meeting, Chizhov emphasized. However, it is important that the parties agreed on the exchange of prisoners “1000 per 1000”, the expert believes: this does not bring the onset of peace in any way, but it looks good news for the relatives of prisoners.

At the same time, Russia in these negotiations questioned the unified tactics of the allies of Ukraine, Chizhov believes:

-The President of Zelensky at a meeting with other European leaders in Albania urged to introduce more stringent sanctions against Russia, increase military assistance to Ukraine, because Putin did not come to negotiations and did not go to a 30-day ceasefire. And this is what European leaders demanded from him back in Kiev on May 10. But then the EU referred to the readiness and the United States to strengthen sanctions against the Russian Federation. And now it is not clear what decisions Donald Trump will make: judging by his rhetoric, he was going to meet with Putin. Indeed, a single position of the West and Ukraine regarding Moscow is now in question. But what Putin managed to achieve, of course, has nothing to do with the establishment of peace, ”said the interlocutor of the New-Europe.

Russia is ready to fight forever?

Medinsky in the negotiations threatened Ukraine with the capture of the Kharkov and Sumy regions, writes the journalist of The Economist Oliver Carroll with reference to the source. According to him, Medinsky also stated in the negotiations that Russia in the 18th century fought with Sweden for 21 years, and therefore it was ready to fight with Ukraine for a long time:

“We do not want war, but we are ready to fight a year, two, three - no matter how much time it takes. We fought with Sweden 21 years old. How long are you ready to fight? <...> Perhaps one of the sitting at this table will lose even more of their loved ones. Russia is ready to fight forever, ”Carroll quoted Medinsky. The reliability of the quote was not confirmed by the Russian delegation.

On the one hand, such a rhetoric is largely bravado and bluff, but it reflects reality, according to political scientist Georgy Chizhov:

- For quite some time, the war has been going on for exhaustion, and Ukraine, of course, has been exhausted faster, since Russia has more resources in all objective parameters: many population, territories, minerals.

But the Ukrainian economy Russian shelling very much interferes. That is, in fact, it is blackmail, coercion. And, of course, in a good way, Russia should be punished for this, ”says Chizhov.

The figure of Medinsky in the current negotiations was not chosen by chance, the political scientist notes: Putin considers negotiations in Istanbul a direct continuation of the round of meetings in the spring of 2022 and insists on discussions about the “root causes of war”.

- Putin’s root causes of war come down to the fact that Ukraine claims the status of an independent state, and he does not agree with this. To substantiate this, he just needed Medinsky’s “historian” ( independent researchers found out that he forged a doctoral dissertation; fakes were also discovered in school textbooks under his authorship - approx. Ed. ). The Ukrainian side, apparently, was originally a mood for more serious contact. And when at the last moment the Russian side officially announced the composition of the delegation, there was no one to quickly replace the negotiators from Ukraine, ”Chizhov suggests.

After the negotiations, Medinsky in an interview with Evgeny Popov with VGTRK stated the impossibility of establishing a 30-day ceasefire, which is required by Ukraine, Europe and the USA, since "people who do not know history want it." Further, as noted by the publication “Important Stories”, the head of the Russian delegation cited the fictional quotes of Napoleon and Bismarck.

“As Napoleon said, the war and negotiations are underway at the same time ( the source of such words of Napoleon is unknown ). Bad examples, but the Vietnamese War, 15 years, all the time there were negotiations in the course of hostilities. The Korean War - negotiations were always underway in the course of hostilities. But the most important thing for us is the Soviet-Finnish war. <...> Stalin offers the truce of Finland. The British and French are calling - you can’t agree with advice, you cannot conclude peace. <...> Fight with the Russians to the last Finn, ”he continued.

Medinsky also compared the situation with negotiations with the Northern War and, among other things, argued the demand for Ukraine to hand over its territory by a fake quote by German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck:

"He [Bismarck] always said:" Never try to deceive the Russians and steal something from them, because time will pass, and sooner or later the Russians always come for their own. " This is “Russians always come for their own”, it seems to me, a very important lesson in history ( the source of the quote is also unknown ), ”Medinsky said.

At the same time, Ukraine was also “fastened” in response, the political scientist emphasizes: in addition to the Minister of Defense of Umarov and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislitsa at the negotiation table, deputy chiefs of staff of the military forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine sat mainly.

- That is, not quite the composition that should be in such negotiations. I think it was a Ukrainian symmetrical answer, and therefore we saw that half of the table was occupied by people in camouflage. What are the negotiations, such and delegations. But I do not exclude that the readiness of Ukraine to conduct more serious negotiations forced the Russian delegation to show at least some result in the form of, for example, an agreement on the exchange of prisoners, ”says the interlocutor of Novo-Europe.

According to Chizhov, Russia will try to tighten the negotiation stage at lower levels as long as possible to prepare for the summer offensive. Until Russia does not demonstrate the willingness to make at least some concessions and steps towards, even insignificant, all meetings will be profanity, he said:

- It is important that this is brought to the American side, because now only the United States can provide additional pressure on Russia. Europeans have limited possibilities, because Russia has been living in the conditions of sanctions for a fourth year, and so far it does not bring it back. And therefore, Medinsky, broadcasting the Kremlin’s position, says that Russia can fight for 20 years, but these words are not entirely sincere. They have no 20 years in stock. The problem is that Ukraine does not have these 20 years either, ”the expert summed up.