Reach Moscow

Before Zelensky's visit to Berlin, Europe is again reminded of promises to supply long-range weapons

“There are no longer restrictions on the range of weapons supplied to Ukraine - neither from the British, nor from the French, nor from us. “No from the Americans either,” Chancellor Merz said at the WDR TV forum. “This means that Ukraine can now defend itself, including, for example, by striking military targets in Russia.”

Tomorrow, May 28, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky will visit Berlin. It is possible that at the meeting with Merz it will be announced that Germany will transfer Taurus cruise missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, according to Paul Ronzheimer, deputy editor-in-chief of Bild magazine, Germany still did not approve of the supply of these missiles to Ukraine and there will be no news on this topic during Zelensky’s visit. On the other hand, perhaps this is a “warm-up” for Zelensky’s visit and an attempt to remind Europe of its own promises.

As New Europe wrote a year ago with reference to the American publication Politico, the German government in power “cautiously refuses to doubt” about allowing Ukraine to carry out strikes with Western weapons on military targets inside Russia’s ancestral territory. Thus, the opinion of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who previously did not approve of Russian shelling, has changed.

“A person familiar with the German government’s position also said that Scholz favors allowing the use of Western weapons against targets inside Russia, without going into detail,”

— wrote Politico. Back in September 2024, New Europe published a map of Russian regions that could be attacked by various Western missiles.

And on November 19, 2024, the first reports appeared of a Western missile attack on a facility in Russia. “Indeed, ATACMS was used for the first time to attack Russian territory. The strike was carried out on a facility in the Bryansk region, it was successfully hit,” wrote Yuri Butusov, editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian publication Censor.net. The arsenal that came under attack is located 130 km from the Ukrainian border near the city of Karachev. At the same time, local residents reported that a missile threat was declared in the Bryansk region. A video of the attack was posted online.

Permits without weapons

“Previously, the announced permits had a number of restrictions. It was possible to attack only certain objects at a short distance from the border, recalls military analyst and former SBU employee Ivan Stupak. “Then these restrictions were gradually lifted, and now we hear from Mr. Merz that they have now been completely removed. I wonder why the chancellor spoke on behalf of the USA, Britain and France? And I want to understand - are these missiles available? If we are talking about supplies to Germany, we mean Taurus cruise missiles. There are simply no others. But will they actually be provided, and if so, when? It’s unclear.”

“From the words of Friedrich Merz, we can conclude that Germany plans to soon transfer Taurus missiles to Ukraine,” military observer David Sharp tells New-Europe. “But we do not know any specifics - neither the real tactical and technical characteristics of these missiles, nor their quantity, nor the timing of the transfer, nor the launch vehicles. There is not even an understanding of which bans are lifted and which remain. I remember the British Foreign Secretary saying that the Ukrainians could use the missiles as they wished. But in the end it turned out that this was not the case at all.”

“So far we only hear permissions, but we don’t see the missiles themselves,” military expert, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan notes to New-Europe.

— Ukraine ran out of ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles donated by the USA, Great Britain and France last year. Moreover, the Ukrainian Armed Forces never received the main modification of British and French weapons,

capable of attacking the enemy at a distance of 560 kilometers. Therefore, all the loud words of European officials so far look like pressure on Putin in order to persuade him to peace and make him think about banning the Russian army from firing ballistic missiles at Ukrainian cities. If Friedrich Merz wanted to help the Ukrainian armed forces, he would have transferred the Taurus missiles in secrecy, as German officials said. And we would learn about their use from the message about the target being hit. It is interesting that the Germans themselves just a few days ago classified information about arms supplies. And now the chancellor suddenly reveals such important information.”

“In fact, the decision will only affect the future use of Taurus missiles, since the stocks of previously transferred ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles are most likely exhausted,” military researcher Kirill Mikhailov tells Novaya-Europa. — Based on the experience of using similar Storm Shadows on Russian territory, priority will be given to attacks on command posts of various Russian formations and groupings of troops. Taurus missiles do not have cluster warhead options, unlike ATACMS, which somewhat limits the range of targets. For example, it makes attacks on such large objects as airfields, fuel and ammunition depots impractical. Russia also has missiles of this and even greater range, and I think when they literally fly to Kyiv and other cities of Ukraine every day, any doubts about the feasibility of supplying similar systems disappear. Moreover, I believe there is an understanding that Ukraine will treat the lives of civilians more carefully than Russia.”

They won't give many missiles

Ivan Stupak recalls that 35 states, including Germany, Great Britain and France, have entered into an agreement not to provide third countries with missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers and a warhead weighing more than 500 kilograms. All types of European missile weapons previously transferred to Ukraine were made in exactly this export version.

David Sharp recalls that in the original modification, the Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles, like the Taurus, have a range of 550–560 kilometers. There were rumors in Ukraine that some of the missiles provided by the British were with an uncut range. But confirmation of this version could not be found.

David Sharp suggests that not many Taurus missiles will be transferred. The US could completely stop supplying ATACMS. But the British Storm Shadow and the French SCALP-EG must be supplied to Ukraine. It is likely that their use does not become known to the general public. It is possible that the rockets are reserved for important occasions. The same thing happened with the reserves of Soviet operational-tactical missiles “Tochka U”, which Kyiv used extremely sparingly despite the very difficult situation at the front. The military observer considers Germany's one-time delivery of more than a hundred Taurus missiles unlikely. In total, European allies will be able to provide no more than two hundred cruise missiles of all types per year.

According to Ivan Stupak, only 600 Taurus missiles were assembled in Germany. Several were shot during the exercise. Others were transferred to allied countries. It is unknown how much ammunition remains in Germany. But a military analyst believes that Kyiv should not count on the supply of more than 100 missiles.

“From a conversation between two German officers intercepted by Russian intelligence, it is known that adaptation to Taurus missile carrier aircraft is much more difficult than Storm Shadow / SCALP-EG,

- David Sharp notes. “It is likely that German missiles will try to be launched from F-16 or Mirage 2000 aircraft. But there is no information yet that such integration is possible.”

Roman Svitan says that Taurus missiles have approximately a half-ton warhead and can hit a distance of 560 kilometers. Although there are ground-launched versions of these weapons, Taurus fly the farthest and most accurately when launched from a carrier aircraft. At the moment, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launches French and English cruise missiles from Soviet Su-24 bombers converted for this purpose. The issue of supplying Saab Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine is currently being discussed. They will be able to run Taurus.

“There is evidence that it is not very difficult to produce new Taurus rockets,” continues Ivan Stupak. — But there is no information that the manufacturer is already working on a specific order. In addition, the Russians will shoot down some of the missiles. At best, 80 percent, at worst, 50 percent of the launched ammunition will reach the target. Some objects will require several missiles. So it will not be possible to achieve a turning point in the war with the help of Taurus alone. But it is likely to cause significant damage.”

“I think that Germany will eventually hand over the Taurus. And we will soon see the defeat of Russian military targets,” says Roman Svitan. “As soon as the Taurus missiles are delivered, they will immediately fly to targets from Moscow to the Kerch Bridge. This type of weapon has concrete-piercing properties and is suitable for the destruction of fortified bunkers, command posts, control centers, communications centers and logistics facilities.”

David Sharp considers an effective strike on targets in Moscow unlikely. After all, taking into account the fact that the plane will launch the rocket 50–60 kilometers behind the front line, the Taurus will only reach the Russian capital at the very limit. And with a high probability, the ammunition will be intercepted by Russian air defense concentrated near the borders of the metropolis. Higher priority targets for the Taurus will be headquarters, ammunition depots, military production facilities and other facilities in the rear of the Russian army.