Donald Trump and Elon Musk had a falling out. We figure out which of them is capable of harming the other more

Elon, we have bad news.

Yesterday, what journalists called the “Super Bowl of Internet quarrels ” happened - the most powerful man in the world, US President Donald Trump, publicly quarreled with the richest man in the world, tech tycoon Elon Musk. Officially, they differed on Trump's "big beautiful tax bill" that increases the US budget deficit. Musk, who until last week led the Trump administration's spending cuts, called the bill a "disgusting perversion." Trump said that he was disappointed in his until recently loyal ally and that he was acting for selfish reasons. After that, they began exchanging caustic messages, each on their own social networks - Musk on X, and Trump on Truth Social. We have already recounted their dispute, and now we explain what could have been the real reason for the quarrel between Trump and Musk, which of them is more capable of harming the other, and whether they can reconcile.

What is this “big beautiful bill”?

With its help, Donald Trump is trying to get hiselection promises through Congress. First, the bill makes permanent tax breaks that Trump enacted as temporary in 2017 and were set to expire at the end of 2025. Secondly, he introduces new tax breaks - again temporary, until 2028. Third, it increases spending on defense and the fight against illegal immigration.

To find the money for all this, the bill would cut spending on health insurance, student loans and food assistance, and eliminate many tax breaks to support clean energy — including incentives for electric vehicles. But most of the spending will simply not be paid and will increase the already enormous US national debt: the bill also raises the national debt ceiling.

Trump's initiative will allow Americans to save on taxes in the coming years, but will deprive millions of low-income people of health insurance and food assistance, and will also tighten access to student loans. Calculations show that the poorest will become poorer because of it, and the richest will become richer. Moreover, over the next 10 years, the bill will increase the US budget deficit by three to five trillion dollars, although Trump promised , on the contrary, to balance the budget.

His "big beautiful bill" is divisive even among Republicans, who hold majorities in both houses of Congress. The House passed it by one vote in late May. Now it has to pass through the Senate.

Why is Musk criticizing the bill?

Officially because, according to the businessman, he is “stuffed with budget cuts.” During the second Trump administration, Musk created and until recently headed the Department of Government Effectiveness (DOGE), which was supposed to cut costs, bureaucrats and excess regulation. Under this pretext, DOGE representatives penetrated various departments and gained access to the most sensitive databases. Musk promised to save the government two trillion dollars, but did not save even a hundredth of this amount. Nevertheless, his indignation at the bill, which will only increase budget expenditures, seems natural.

But, apparently, it’s not about principles, or at least not only about them. Trump, during a quarrel with Musk, explained his dissatisfaction with the fact that the “big beautiful bill” would deprive the electric vehicle industry of billions of dollars in benefits. The bill actually prematurely abolishes tax subsidies that encourage buyers to purchase electric vehicles, and also introduces an additional fee on such vehicles. According to JPMorgan bank analysts, Tesla, Musk's largest business, will lose $1.2 billion in annual profit because of this.

Musk began criticizing the “big beautiful bill” even before leaving the Trump administration. On May 27, he said he was "disappointed" with the initiative because it undermines DOGE's work. On May 30, Trump sent him off as head of the department, and on May 31, he withdrew the candidacy of his colleague, billionaire Jared Isaacman, to head NASA. Trump said he learned of Isaacman's past donations to Democrats, but sources told The New York Times that he had actually known about them for a long time. It looked like revenge on Musk (his company SpaceX depends on contracts with NASA, and Musk himself lobbied for Isaacman’s appointment). When Trump withdrew Isaacman's nomination, Musk began to criticize the "big beautiful bill" even more harshly.

Trump is also unhappy with Musk, journalists write . At first it seemed that he was ready to let Musk do whatever he wanted, but then the tech mogul gradually began to lose influence in the White House. His position was undermined by unsuccessful work at DOGE, high anti-ratings, a failed attempt to influence the election to the Wisconsin Supreme Court and conflicts with Trump officials. In addition, Musk allegedly tried to block an international artificial intelligence deal that did not include his own business, and was slow to release a promised $100 million to Trump-linked political committees. It was reported that Musk asked to remain in the White House longer than 130 days , but was refused.

Which of yesterday's allies can harm the other more ?

Here's what leverage Musk has:

• Stop donating to Trump. Last year, he became the largest donor to the Republican Party, spending $250 million on the election campaigns of Trump and his fellow party members. Yesterday, Musk said that without his support, Trump would not have returned to the presidency.
• To disrupt the adoption of the “big beautiful bill.” Given that the House passed it by one vote, Musk only needs to win over a handful of dissenters.
• Inconvenience the government. He threatened that SpaceX would stop operating Dragon (the only American spacecraft that NASA can use to deliver astronauts to the ISS without resorting to the help of Russian Soyuz), but quickly changed his mind .
• Damage Trump's image. He said Trump was named in documents in the case of financier Jeffrey Epstein, who was accused of trafficking minors and committed suicide in prison. Trump did know Epstein and was mentioned in documents related to his case. Another part of the documents remains closed - and Musk claims that this is because of Trump.
• Use your audience against Trump. Yesterday, during a quarrel, he already tried to do this: he conducted a survey among his subscribers in X (he has 220 million of them), whether he needs to create his own political party. More than five million users took part in the survey, 80% answered “yes”.

Here's what Trump can put pressure on:

• Use an administrative resource. Trump has the ability to take revenge on his opponents through presidential decrees and decisions of the Department of Justice (both methods he has already used). Not to mention that the president is able to influence Musk's business through regulators.
• Break government contracts with Musk's companies that have earned more than $15 billion from them. The biggest hit will be SpaceX, which receives large contracts from NASA, the Pentagon and intelligence agencies. Yesterday, Trump directly hinted that he might deprive Musk of government contracts.
• Revoke Musk's security clearance, which he received in connection with SpaceX's work for NASA. This would make it very difficult for a businessman to interact with the government.
• Investigate information that Musk is taking drugs and check his migration status. “I am convinced that he [Musk] is an illegal immigrant and should be deported from the country immediately,” said former top US presidential aide Steve Bannon.

What reaction did their quarrel cause?

American journalists unanimously write that a conflict between Trump and Musk should have been expected sooner or later, because they are too similar to work together for a long time. But no one imagined that their quarrel could be watched live. “[This is] what happens when two of the greatest promoters in media history collide,” said The Atlantic writer David Graham.

This clash was clearly being watched in the US and around the world. Trump supporters with horror (“Please don’t. We love you both very much,” wrote rapper Kanye West), opponents with ridicule (“Girls are fighting,” said Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez).

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, whom Musk once called “the little man,” turned to him and said, “You see, big man, politics is more complicated than you thought.”

Can they make peace?

Kate Andrews, deputy editor-in-chief of The Spectator magazine in the US,believes that "Musk has burned his bridges to the Oval Office." CNN sources said the same; according to them, Musk crossed the line when he mentioned Epstein (after which the businessman switched to a conciliatory tone). However, Axios suggests that his main mistake was not Epstein.

“Musk committed what in Trump’s world might be called the unforgivable sin of taking credit for the president’s 2024 election victory and declaring that his political power would far exceed Trump’s,” the newspaper writes.

It looks like Musk was wrong about the extent of his political influence. Republican politicians are in no hurry to take his side, and their electorate in this conflict clearly leans in favor of Trump.

Musk has not yet commented on the quarrel. Trump said that he was “fine” and that he “isn’t even thinking about Elon,” who has “lost his mind.” According to Trump, Musk wanted to talk to him, but he is “not particularly interested” in the conversation right now. The White House says Trump intends to sell the red Tesla he bought in the spring to support Musk when he had business problems. Due to the conflict with the US President, the problems returned: Tesla lost $153 billion in a day, and Musk himself became poorer by 34 billion.